Food Consumption inside Indonesia Is Forecast To Be US$65.55bn in 2010, Rising To an Expected US$97.96bn By 2014

The Q410 BMI Indonesia Retail Report forecasts that the country's retail sales
will grow from IDR1.24trn (US$120.02bn) in 2010 to IDR2.09trn (US$201.82bn) by
2014. Strong underlying economic growth, the worlds fourth-largest population
(which is growing), rising per-capita incomes and the continued development of
organized retail infrastructure are key factors behind the substantial growth
forecast in Indonesian retail sales. 

Indonesia's nominal GDP is forecast to be US$675.57bn in 2010 and BMI predicts
average annual GDP growth of 5.7% through to 2014. With the population forecast
to increase from 232.5mn in 2010 to 244.7mn by 2014, GDP per capita is predicted
to grow 63% by the end of the period, reaching US$4,732. Our forecast for
consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$1,450 in 2010 to
US$2,183 in 2014. 

Tourism plays a large part in the health of the Indonesian retail industry, with
Bali -the jewel in the country's tourism crown generating 30% of national
tourist revenue, an estimated US$3bn a year. According to government data,
salaries of employees in the formal sector have risen by 20% since 1999, with
the average wage now standing at IDR2,412,000 (US$219) per month. These
higher-income earners make up about 30% of the total workforce. 

Food consumption is forecast to be US$65.55bn in 2010, rising to an expected
US$97.96bn by 2014, an increase of 47.2%. The mass grocery retail (MGR) sector,
which is still developing, will achieve even more substantial growth - BMI
forecasts sales to rise by 57.7% to US$10.44bn by 2014. 

Other retail sub-sectors forecast to show healthy growth over the period include
automotives, in which BMI expects sales to increase by 86.5%, from US$11.32bn in
2010 to US$21.11bn by 2014. Over-the counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are
forecast to grow by just over 62%, from US$1.47bn in 2010 to US$2.38bn by 2014.
Consumer electronic sales are also predicted to rise about 55%, from US$6.96bn
in 2010 to US$10.82bn by the end of the forecast period in 2014. 

Retail sales for the BMI universe of Asian countries in 2010 are forecast to
reach US$2.66trn. China and India are predicted to account for almost 91% of
regional retail sales in 2010 and by 2014 their share of the regional market is
expected to be more than 92%. Growth in regional retail sales for 2010-2014 is
forecast by BMI at 72.2%, with an annual average of 14%. India should experience
the most rapid rate of growth, followed by China. Indonesia's forecast market
share of 4.0% in 2010 is expected to be the same in 2014. 

Source: Research and Markets