INTA Patok Laba Bersih 2011 Tumbuh 88%

PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) menargetkan laba bersih tumbuh 88% menjadi Rp 155,82 miliar dari laba bersih 2010 yang sebesar Rp 83,08 miliar. Proyeksi kenaikan laba bersih ini sejalan dengan target penjualan perseroan pada 2011 ini yang diperkirakan bisa mencapa 1.293 unit, atau naik 555 dari penjualan 2010 sebanyak 835 unit.

Manajemen mengaku optimistis target penjualan pada 2011 ini akan tarcapai karena hingga Jumat, 15 April 2011, INTA telah mengantungi penjualan 897 unit alat berat. Jumlah penjualan ini sudah lebih besar dari angka total penjualan sepanjang 2010.

"Kami optimistis bahwa target ini akan tercapai, karena kami sudah mengantungi penjualan dan on hand sekira 897 unit alat berat atau sekitar 70% dari target kita tahun ini," kata Direktur Keuangan INTA Fred L Manibog usai RUPST-LB, Jumat (15/4).

Selain itu perseroan pun menargetkan pendapatan atau revenue 2011 bisa mencapai Rp 2,99 triliun atau meningkat 63% dari pendapatan 2010 yang mencapai Rp 1,833 triliun.

INTA Akan Stock Split 1:5

Manajemen PT Intraco Penta Tbk (INTA) mengusulkan rasio pemecahan saham 1:5 (1 saham menjadi 5 saham). 

Untuk memuluskan aksi korporasi ini, manajemen INTA akan menggelar rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa pada 15 April 2011 di Intercontinental Hotel Jakarta.

CIL to invest $3 bn in coal, steel in Indonesia

Coal India (CIL), the country’s largest coal producer, plans to invest up to $3 billlion in a coking coal mine, a steel plant and a sea port on Indonesia’s Kalimantan island, Central Kalimantan Governor, Agustin Teras Narang, said on Thursday.

On the sidelines of an infrastructure summit here, Narang said Coal India was expected to complete feasibility studies for the projects by June. “They (Coal India) would look after all the funds for the projects,” he said, adding the parties had signed a preliminary agreement on the matter earlier this year.

The lack of a regulatory framework on land acquisition in Indonesia, however, had jeopardised the fate of a number of projects, analysts and investors said during the three-day summit. Central Kalimantan province accounts for about 4.8 billion tonne of coal reserves, 40 per cent of which is estimated to be coking coal. Source: Sify.com

Bumi in talks with CIC on $600 mln debt swap

* Aims to swap debt for equity in Bumi, Bumi Minerals or Vallar/Bumi

Bumi Resources , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, said on Thursday it was in talks with China Investment Corp (CIC) on the possible swap of $600 million debt into equity.

"There are several options to swap it. It could be with Vallar's shares, Bumi's shares or BRM's shares," Kenneth P. Farrell, a Bumi director, told Reuters. 

"But it fully depends on CIC approval," said Farrell, also the chief executive officer of Bumi Resources Minerals (BRM) . 

The Bakrie Group, including Bakrie & Brothers, and the Rothschild banking dynasty joined forces in November for Vallar to take a 25 percent stake in Bumi and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal Energy . The Bakrie Group will own 43 percent in Vallar, which was renamed Bumi Plc on Tuesday. 

Bumi has said its first priority was to repay a first tranche of $600 million in debt this October -- two years earlier than scheduled -- out of a total $1.9 billion it owes to China's sovereign wealth fund. CIC was unavailable for immediate comment. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 15 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk per

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin terpangkas 26,43 poin (-0,71%) ke level 3.707,98, seiring maraknya aksi profit taking dan koreksi mayoritas indeks bursa regional. Asing membukukan penjualan bersih Rp 340 milliar. Secara teknikal, Stochastic dan RSI masih bergerak downtrend dan mulai meninggalkan area overbought. Seiring dengan itu, hari ini indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 3.651–3.728. Cermati TLKM, PTBA, dan SMGR.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

Minimnya katalis membuat IHSG masih dalam tekanan. Level 3.675 akan menjadi kunci pergerakan indeks dalam jangka menengah. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.675-3.730 dengan PTBA dan TLKM sebagai saham pilihan.

3. Woori Korindo Securities

Indeks kemarin tertekan dan membentuk pola engulfing bear yang berpotensi membuat arah IHSG menjadi downtrend. Pola engulfing bear pada IHSG juga didukung oleh melemahnya momentum dan potensi indikator MACD yang membentuk pola deadcross. Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks kami perkirakan akan cenderung tertekan di kisaran level 3.651-3.730. Saham-saham pilihan kami antara lain BJBR, PGAS, BBCA, TLKM dan BBKP.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 15 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 15 April 2011.

BUY: (BBRI, ADRO, PTBA, TLKM)

• Walaupun didera profit taking regional kemarin, IHSG hanya masuk ke pola konsolidasi (sideways) untuk memperkuat daerah akumulasi support di 3.730-3.700 sehingga skenario mengetes old high di 3.770 dapat berlanjut.

• IHSG close (14-04) 3.711.727(-22.680/-0.59%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.700-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3,770-3,850

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bank BRI (BRI): (BUY) (target: Rp 6.400) (close 14/04 Rp 6.200)

• Perubahan pencatatan laporan keuangan yang akan meningkatkan nilai aset dan laba emiten perbankan menjadi katalis positif untuk mengumpulkan big cap pemain mikro UKM dengan valuasi PER 13x 2011, yang merupakan termurah diantara bank2 besar lainnya seperti BMRI, BBNI, dan BBCA yang diperdagangkan di atas PER 16x.

• Entry (1) Rp 6.100, Entry (2) Rp 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.850

 

2.    Bukit Asam (PTBA) (BUY): (Target: Rp 22.650) (Close 14/04 Rp 22.250)

• Outlook permintaan energi dan batubara dalam negeri yang tinggi membuat proyeksi laba dinaikkan sebesar 7% untuk 2011 sehingga dapat offset kekecewaan pasar akibat penurunan kinerja di 2010 sebelumnya.

• Pembangunan pembangkit listrik dapat menurunkan cost produksi batubara

• Entry (1) Rp 22.200, Entry (2) Rp 21.900, Cut loss point: Rp 21.700

 

3.   Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.350) (Close 14/04 Rp 7.200)

• Saham big cap pengerak index ini diperdagangkan di PER 12x/PBV 3x dengan ROE 25 (valuasi murah dan kinerja profitable), cukup menarik dilirik setelah sekian lama terkonsolidasi.

• Downgrade fundamental sudah tercermin dalam koreksi sebelumnya di bawah Rp 7.000 beberapa bulan lalu

• Entry: (1) Rp 7.100, Entry (2) Rp 6.950, Cut loss point: Rp 6.850

 

4.  Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.375) (close 14/04 Rp 2.275)

• Kenaikan harga batubara ke $123/ton dari $120/ton offset downgrade fundamental dan proyeksi laba analis asing (kelihatannya downgrade sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga sebelumnya dari Rp 2.500) sehingga rekomen akumulasi karena secara technical mulai masuk pola sideways (tren samping) dengan kecendrungan breakout.

• Exit (1) Rp 2.250, Entry (2) Rp 2.200, Cut loss point: Rp 2.100

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Indonesia to name Kalimantan rail project winner in Dec

Indonesia will announce the winning bid for a $2.2 billion coal railway project in Kalimantan in December and it has shortlisted four bidders, the governor of Central Kalimantan province said on Thursday at an infrastructure conference in Jakarta. 

The government had previously said it would announce the winner for the project in February 2011. 

"The winner of the Puruk Cahu-Bangkuang railway project will be announced in December and we have four bidders on the shortlist," said provincial governor Teras Narang.

The four are Itochu Corp , Kalimantan firm Mega Guna Ganda, Bakrie Indo Infrastructure, a unit of Indonesia's Bakrie Group, and the MAP consortium, which the governor said had British connections. 

The 185-km (115-mile) railway will connect Puruk Cahu in inland Central Kalimantan province to a port on the coast. Source: Reuters

GMR to start mining coal in Indonesia next month

GMR Energy would start mining activity at its coal mine in Indonesia from next month, according to a source. "The company would start extracting coal from one of the two separate blocks in South Sumatra, Indonesia next month," he said.

In 2009, GMR Energy acquired 100 per cent ownership of PT Barasentosa Lestari (PTBSL), a coal mining company in Indonesia for about USD 100 million. PT BSL is holding a legal coal mining licence under the Coal Contract of Work issued by the government of Indonesia. The licence provides 25 year mining authorisation over two separate coal blocks in South Sumatra, Indonesia.

The company bought the coal mine with the purpose of securing fuel supplies for its thermal power projects in India. These acquisitions will also help in circumventing the volatility of fuel prices for its imported coal based coastal power plants in India.

Meanwhile, the company has acquired a 33.5 per cent stake in Homeland Energy Group Ltd (HEG) which owns coal properties in South Africa through its subsidiary the Homeland Mining and Energy (HMESA).

HEG owns a controlling interest in the already operational Kendal mines, fully explored Eloff mines and other exploration sites with total mineable reserves of around 300 million tonnes. GMR Energy has acquired 100 per cent ownership interest in EMCO Energy Ltd, (a subsidiary of EMCO Ltd), a Public Limited Company.

EMCO Energy is developing a 600 MW coal based power plant, in two phases (of 300 MW capacity each), in Warora, Maharashtra. GMR Energy is operating a 200 MW coal-based project at Chennai in Tamil Nadu and is also constructing 1,050 MW thermal project at Dhenkanal in Orissa, which would be operational next year. Source: Economic Times

Indonesia To Offer IDR8.8 Trillion Jakarta Port Expansion Project To Investors - Official

Indonesia will open a IDR8.8 trillion ($1.0 billion) project to expand Jakarta Port to bids from investors by next month at the earliest, a government official said Thursday.

"Hopefully, we can open the bidding process in May, or July at the latest," Director General of Sea Transportation Sunaryo told reporters.

Sunaryo, who uses one name, added the project will allow the port to handle an additional 1.2 million containers a year, which is expected to attract more investors to invest in the area around Jakarta.

He added the extension of Indonesia' busiest sea port is expected to be completed by 2014. Source: Dow Jones

BII considering rights issue, no timeframe

Bank Internasional Indonesia (BII) , an Indonesian lender, is considering a rights issue, its CEO said on Thursday, without giving a timeframe or other details. 

Malaysia's largest lender, Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) , owns a 97 percent stake in BII but is in talks with Indonesian regulators to cut it to 80 percent. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 14 April 2011

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan kemarin naik 15 poin (0,41%) ke level 3.734,41, seiring positifnya pergerakan indeks bursa global. Secara teknikal, indeks kemarin ditutup di level resistance di 3.730, sehingga berpotensi melanjutkan rally hari ini. Indikator Stochastic dan RSI sama–sama menunjukkan pergerakan ke bawah menjauhi area overbuy. Pada Kamis (14/4), indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 3.698–3.747. Cermati BUMI, BBCA
dan INTP.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

Di tengah sentimen negatif regional, indeks mampu menguat 15 poin. Tapi, Stochastic yang cenderung deadcross masih mengindikasikan adanya potensi tekanan jual dengan 3.675 sebagai level kunci. Untuk hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.690-3.750. SMCB dan UNTR menjadi saham pilihan kami.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 14 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 14 April 2011.

BUY: (SMGR, INDF, ASII, JSMR)

• Technical rebound IHSG akan berlanjut untuk memperkuat daerah akumulasi support di 3.730-3.700 sehingga skenario mengetes old high di 3.770 dapat berlanjut.

• IHSG close (13-04) 3.718.387(+0.910/+0.06%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.700-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3,770-3,850

 

Stock picks:

1.     Semen Gresik (SMGR): (BUY) (target: Rp 9.800) (close 13/04 Rp 9.550)

• Ketakutan pasar mengenai kurangnya daya produksi semen kelihatannya sudah mereda karena program ekspansi yang dilakukan sesuai jadwal dan diprediksi selesai akhir 2011 sehingga SMGR dapat menjadi produser semen terbesar di Indonesia.

• Naiknya biaya produksi akibat tingginya listrik dapat direduksi oleh pemakaian pembangkit listrik bertenaga batubara oleh pabrik Tonasa.

• Entry (1) Rp 9.450, Entry (2) Rp 9.250, Cut loss point: Rp 9.100

 

2.    Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.600) (Close 13/04 Rp 5.350)

• Walaupun masih dalam pola sideways, namun daily stochastic yang memberikan buy signal menandakan kemungkinan pola tersebut akan breakout keatas dalam waktu dekat.

• Kenaikan harga gandum (bahan baku) yang tidak mempengaruhi margin keuntungan penjualan mie instan serta eksposur ke komoditas CPO dan gula di tengah naiknya harga komoditas menjadi katalis positif untuk breakout

• Entry (1) Rp 5.300, Entry (2) Rp 5.100, Cut loss point: Rp 4.850

 

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 57.900) (Close 13/04 Rp 56.150)

• Pasca rights issue United Tractors (UNTR) dimana ASII menjadi standby buyer, kepemilikan akan bertambah sehingga setoran dividen dari UNTR juga meningkat.

• Komponen sparepart impor ke produksi mobil Avanza dan Innova (80% dari total produksi mobil) hanya 10% sehingga tidak pengaruh banyak

• BI rate masih tetap 6.75%, inflasi melambat, dan BI rate akan tetap hingga ada keputusan jelas kapan BBM dinaikkan (subsidi dicabut).

• Entry: (1) Rp 55.900, Entry (2) Rp 55.250, Cut loss point: Rp 54.900

 

4.  Jasa Marga (JSMR) (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.525) (close 13/04 Rp 3.400)

• Pertumbuhan jaringan jalan tol dan volume kendaraan dan suku bunga kondusif (BI rate tetap) untuk pembiayaan proyek ekspansinya merupakan katalis positif untuk meneruskan minor uptrend pasca kondolidasi sideways in.

• Exit (1) Rp 3.400, Entry (2) Rp 3.325, Reverse posisi: Rp 3.175

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Bumi Resources Advances Most in Four Months on Debt Payment

PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal producer, advanced the most in more than four months in Jakarta trading on speculation that a plan to repay debt ahead of schedule will boost earnings. 

Bumi rose 7.1 percent to 3,400 rupiah, the largest gain since Dec. 1 and beating the 0.4 percent increase in the benchmark Jakarta Composite index. (JCI)

The coal producer reported on March 31 a 63 percent jump in profit to $311 million last year, surpassing the mean estimate of $276 million in a Bloomberg survey of 17 analysts. Bumi plans to repay the first tranche of debt to China Investment Corp. in October, Nathaniel Rothschild, co-chairman of Vallar Plc that owns 25 percent of the Indonesian company, said on April 11, without specifying amounts. 

“People’s expectations on Bumi’s earnings have improved,” said Norico Gaman, head of research at PT BNI Securities, who recommends buying the stock. “A debt reduction at the same time as production capacity increases could mean that profit growth in 2011 will exceed that of 2010.” 

Bumi plans to repay early $600 million of debt due October 2013 to the Chinese sovereign wealth fund as part of the company’s aim to cut debt by $1 billion this year, Director Dileep Srivastava said on Feb. 7. 

The coal producer aims to increase output to 111 million metric tons in 2012 from 60 million tons in 2009, the company said in March last year. Sales and prices may rise by at least 10 percent this year, Srivastava said on Jan. 21. 

Bumi has climbed 42 percent in Jakarta trading in the past year, outperforming the 30 percent gain in the main index. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia's March tin exports jump 37.6 pct -ministry

Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 37.6 percent in March from the same month last year as smelters increased shipments to benefit from high prices and as rains eased, an official at the trade ministry said on Wednesday.

Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, shipped 9,051.46 tonnes of refined tin in March, compared to 6,576.01 tonnes in March last year, trade ministry data showed. 

"The weather is improving and tin prices are also high, which helped smelters step up production," said Junaedi, the head of the export of mining products at the ministry.

Smelters may also process tin slag to produce more refined tin, he added. 

Tin shipments to Japan tripled in March to 304.64 tonnes despite the evastating tsunami and earthquake from 95.37 tonnes in February, data showed. 

However, smelters said on Monday that the supply of tin ore to independent smelters in Bangka island, the country's main source of tin, had fallen as rain and police raids on illegal miners had hampered mining.

The police have confiscated 72 tonnes of illegal tin ore on the island, Juwari, the South Bangka police chief, said on Wednesday. 

Smelters expect tin production to fall in coming weeks because of tight raw material supplies as small-scale traditional miners cut back on activity to avoid police raids. 

A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rain that has hindered production in Indonesia have helped drive the tin rally.

Indonesia expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes in 2010. Source: Reuters

Mandiri says Q1 loan growth seen at 20 pct

Bank Mandiri, Indonesia's largest bank by assets, said on Wednesday its loan growth was seen at 20 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of this year, and its full-year loan growth was forecast to be 20 to 22 percent. Source: Reuters

Vallar says no tender offer for Bumi even if it takes 51 pct

* Vallar says Bakrie Group will remain controlling shareholder of Bumi/Vallar

* In talks with Bumi's institutional investors to swap shares in them for Vallar

* Says China Investment Corp wants to be a long-term partner of Bumi/Vallar

* Plans to focus on organic growth in the group

London-listed Vallar said on Monday it would not have to tender for the remaining shares in coal miner Bumi Resources if it achieved its aim of taking a stake of up to 51 percent as sister company Bakrie Group would remain Bumi's controlling shareholder. 

Bakrie & Brothers , a major Vallar shareholder, told Reuters last month that the Jersey-based firm would increase its stake in Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, Bumi Resources , to up to 51 percent by June this year.

Indonesian capital market law requires that a firm conducts a tender offer if it buys a majority stake in a Jakarta-listed company. However, Vallar will be exempt from the regulation if it can prove that the controlling shareholder is unchanged. 

"Bakrie will always keep a large stake ... The Bakrie Group will stay as a controlling shareholder of the group [Vallar]," said Vallar's co-founder, Daren Morris, adding that the completion of talks with Bumi shareholders to swap their shares for stock in Vallar was expected in May. 

A Vallar prospectus issued in February said Vallar would issue new shares for Bumi stock owned by other shareholders if there were future transactions to increase its ownership in Bumi. 

The Bakrie Group, including Bakrie & Brothers, and the Rothschild banking dynasty joined forces in November for Vallar to take a 25 percent stake in Bumi and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal Energy . The Bakrie Group will own 43 percent in Vallar, which will be renamed Bumi Plc. 

Vallar will focus on expanding the group organically as it aims to produce up to 140 million tonnes of coal in 2013 from both Bumi and Berau, although it does not rule out acquisitions.

DEBT AND CIC

High debt levels and corporate governance have been the main concerns for investors in Bumi Resources and other firms linked to the politically connected Bakrie Group.

Bumi, which already controls 10 percent of the global thermal coal market, has $3.6 billion of net debt at high interest rates and its debt-to-equity ratio is 2.52, higher than other Indonesian coal miners, such as Adaro Energy at 0.68, according to ThomsonReuters Starmine. 

Bumi obtained a $1.9 billion loan from China Investment Corp (CIC) , one of its biggest single creditors, in 2009 with a 12 percent annual interest rate. 

"The level of leverage on Bumi is not an issue at all ... The issue obviously is that the cost of debt should be a lot lower," said Nathaniel Rothschild, Vallar co-chairman. "So if we're borrowing in London today we could borrow at between 8 to 8.5 percent." 

Vallar is currently in talks with CIC to repay a first tranche of the debt worth $600 million in October and is looking for several options for payment, including cash and a debt for equity swap. 

"CIC wants a long-term relationship with Bumi. They want to be a partner," Morris said.

Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 13 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Rabu, 13 April 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin turun 26 poin (-0,71%) ke level 3.719,23. Ini seiring anjloknya indeks regional karena berita kenaikan kadar radiasi nuklir di Jepang. Di sisi lain, asing membukukan net selling Rp 258 miliar. Secara teknikal, kemarin indeks ditutup di bawah garis support MA 5 yang berada di level 3.733. Waspadai adanya koreksi lanjutan melihat indikator Stochastic telah bergerak downtrend setelah membentuk deathcross. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.671–3.749. Cemati BBRI, BJBR, dan CTRA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Rabu (13/4), secara teknikal, indeks masih cenderung bergerak melemah pada kisaran 3.670-3.740. Pergerakan indeks masih dibayangi oleh kekhawatiran tingkat radiasi di Jepang. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan BDMN, BJBR, MYOR, JSMR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 13 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 13 April 2011.

BUY: (BBRI, BUMI, ASII) SELL (BJBR)

• Koreksi yang terjadi akibat imbas regional membuat beberapa big cap index movers menarik untuk diakumulasi sembari menunggu technical rebound

• IHSG close (12-04) 3.707.387(-26.236/-0.56%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.680-3.610-3.450, Resistance: 3,770-3,850

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bank BRI (BBRI): (BUY) (target: Rp 6.300) (close 12/04 Rp 6.100)

• Minor pullback yang terjadi untuk mengurangi keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) pasca kenaikan beberapa hari yang lalu dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi

• Valuasi BBRI dengan PER 2011 13x masih lebih murah daripada BMRI, BBNI, BBCA yang bermain di atas PER 16x.

• BI rate tetap di 6.75% sangat membantu BBRI karena cost of funding untuk penyaluran kredit yang murah dapat dipertahankan

• Entry (1) Rp 6.050, Entry (2) Rp 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.800

 

2.    Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.300) (Close 12/04 Rp 3.175)

• Proses deleveraging (debt restructuring share swap) dengan aliansi Vallar masih terus berlanjut dan pasar mulai price in efek positif terhadap pengurangan beban biaya utang yang akan translate ke penambahan laba untuk laporan keuangan 1H 2011.

• Bila masih terjad koreksi rekomen menambah posisi

• Entry (1) Rp 3.100, Entry (2) Rp 3.000, Cut loss point: Rp 2.925

 

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 57.900) (Close 12/04 Rp 56.150)

• Ketakutan akan berkurangnya impor suplai bahan baku mobil berlebihan karena Toyota di Indonesia mengunakan kurang dari 10% dalam pembuatan mobilnya (Avanza and Innova)

• Faktor suku bunga lebih pengaruh ke penjualan mobil namun dengan suku bunga tetap kelihatannya penjualan mobil di April dan Mai akan naik untuk kontribusi signifikan ke kinerja 1H 2011.

• Entry: (1) Rp 56.050, Entry (2) Rp 55.450, Cut loss point: Rp 54.400

 

4.  Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR) (SELL) (Target: Rp 1.290) (close 12/04 Rp 1.330)

• Kenaikan selama beberapa hari membuat emiten ini menjadi jenuh beli dan valuasi menjadi mahal (PER 14.46x) dibadingkan dengan BBRI (PER 13x) sebagai perbandingan dalam spesialis kredit UKM.

• Exit (1) Rp 1.340, Entry (2) Rp 1.350, Reverse posisi:Rp 1.370

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 12 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 12 April 2011.

BUY: (UNTR, ADRO, PGAS, AALI)

• Walaupun didera sedikit profit taking akibat sentiment regional, namun IHSG masih on track dalam minor tren positif menuju 3.800

• IHSG close (07-04) 3.747.747(5.936/+0.16%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.700-3.580-3.450, Resistance: 3,770-3,850

 

Stock picks:

1.     United Tractors (UNTR): (BUY) (target: Rp 23.300) (close 11/04 Rp 22.350)

• Secara technical tren minor mulai berubah ke positif dengan buy dari daily macd serta stochastic.

• Pasca konsolidasi antara trading range Rp 21.900-22.600, saham ini siap breakout ke projection target measured move di Rp 23.300.

• Recovery kontrak pertambangan, harga (commodity wave) serta volume produksi operasi batubara (Pama) di 2011 merupakan katalis positif.

• Entry (1) Rp 22.200, Entry (2) Rp 21.900, Cut loss point: Rp 21.250

 

2.    Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 11/04 Rp 2.350)

• Pembahasan rencana pembagian dividen dari keuntungan 2010 dapat menjadi katalis untuk mengerakkan saham yang cukup lama terkonsolidasi ini.

• Pasar masih melihat potensi perubahan arah dalam laporan keuangan 2011 akibat ekspektasi kenaikan harga batubara serta cost produksi persero yang murah dalam prosesnya.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.275, Entry (2) Rp 2.225, Cut loss point: Rp 2.175

 

3.   Perusahaan Gas (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.150) (Close 11/04 Rp 3.975)

• Bila ada koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli dalam uptrend minor rekomen akumulasi

• Ketakutan akibat berkurangnya suplai gas dari Conoco Philips yang dapat mengurangi laba persero kelihatannya berlebihan dan sudah tecermin dalam harga.

• Beberapa proyek seperti terminal LNG untuk menambah pasokan suplai gas serta dividen dari proyeki SSWJ 1 dan 2 masih mengalir dalam proses appresiasi harga sahamnya

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.925, Entry (2) Rp 3.850, Cut loss point: Rp 3.775

 

4.  Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 23.700) (close 11/04 Rp 22.850)

• Penurunan produksi di 2010 akibat cuaca buruk sudah terdiskon dari pasar, karena musim kemarau sudah di depan mata (May).

• Efek dari kenaikan CPO akan mulai terasa dalam kinerja keuangan bila produksi sudah mulai normal kembali dalam waktu dekat. 

• Entry (1) Rp 22.350, Entry (2) Rp 22.150, Cut loss point: Rp 21.700

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 12 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 12 April 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin naik 4 poin (0,11%) ke level 3.745,84. Asing mencatat net buying Rp 187 miliar. Secara teknikal, indeks terlihat rawan profit taking melihat candlestick yang membentuk pola spinning top di area upper band, sementara indikator Stochastic telah membentuk death cross di area overbought. Adapun MACD histogram mulai bergerak memendek di area positif. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.712–3.771. Cermati JSMR, TLKM, dan SMCB.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

Profit taking kembali marak, karena indeks telah mendekati level tertingginya. Terbentuknya shooting star menjadi sinyal potensi tekanan jual. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan masih akan mencoba menguji resistance dan bergerak di kisaran 3.712-3.775. TINS dan PTBA menjadi saham pilihan hari ini.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Selasa (12/4), secara teknikal, indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) cenderung bergerak mixed pada kisaran 3.726-3.780. Rencana pengumuman BI rate serta penguatan harga minyak dunia yang masih berlanjut dapat membayangi pergerakan indeks. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan BBCA, SMCB, UNTR, INTP