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The nation’s second-largest listed plantation company had its rating increased to “buy” from “trading buy” at OSK Research Sdn. which cited a higher crude palm oil price assumption and lower taxes.
OSK raised London Sumatra’s share-price estimate to 14,824 rupiah from 12,492 rupiah, Alvin Tai, an analyst at OSK, said in a report.
Untuk Jumat, 10 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan untuk dibeli, yakni Bank Mandiri (BMRI), Bank BJB (BJBR), Indo Tambang Megah (ITMG), dan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA).
BUY: (BMRI, BJBR, ITMG, PTBA)
Bila terjadi pullback akibat pembentukan new high kemarin dengan kondisi jenuh beli, tetap rekomen akumulasi di beberapa emiten selektif
IHSG close (09-12) 3.786.74 (+16.104/+0.43%) (Val.Rp.5.6T)
1. Bank Mandiri (BMRI): (BUY) (Target: Rp 6.950) (close 09/12 Rp 6.750)
Pangsa corporate & retail yang kuat, dan penyelesaian kredit macet di 2011 serta pemotongan pajak 5% pasca rights issue yang juga meningkatkan funding dapat menjadi katalis positif untuk akumulasi BMRI.
Entry: (1) Rp 6.650, Entry (2) Rp 6.500, Cut loss point: Rp 6.400
2. Bank Jabar (BJBR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.750) (Close 09/12 Rp 1.650)
Profitabilitas tinggi, ROE 2011F 28% & ROA 2011F 14%, valuasi menarik dengan PBV 3.7x/ROE 28% 2011F di 11% & pangsa pasar terjamin karena pembayaran utang langsung dikurangi dari gaji pegawai negeri dapat menunjang pertumbuhan laba BJBR di 2011.
Outlook suku bunga BI rate yang tidak berubah banyak di 2011 juga mendukung penyaluran kredit tinggi.
Entry (1) Rp 1.630, Entry (2) Rp 1.610, Cut loss point: Rp 1.580
3. Indo Tambang Raya (ITMG) (BUY): (Target: Rp 54.850) (Close 09/12 Rp 52.750)
Penguatan harga batubara di atas $100/ton untuk jangka waktu lumayan lama dapat membuat appresasi harga cadangan batubara beberapa tambang terakuisisi tahun ini dimana produksi akan mulai terasa di 2011F.
Entry: (1) Rp 51.560, Entry (2) 49.500, Cut loss point: Rp 48.500
4. Bukit Asam (PTBA) (BUY) (Target: Rp 22.850) (close 09/12 Rp 21.950)
Bila ada koreksi masih berlanjut untuk menutup gap di Rp 21.300 rekomen akumulasi karena outlook proyeksi laba didorong oleh harga batubara di atas $110/ton masih optimis.
Entry: (1) Rp 21.300, Entry (2) Rp 20.700, Cut-loss point: Rp 20.000
Untuk perdagangan Jumat, 10 Desember 2010, tiga sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi bursa, berikut saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin para investor.
1. Erdikha Sekuritas
IHSG kembali memecahkan rekor dengan ditutup pada level 3786,10 (0,43%). Sektor perbankan dan perdagangan menjadi salah satu penopang penguatan indeks. Beberapa sektor seperti pertambangan, keuangan,infrastruktur dan perdagangan masih dalam tren positif, sehingga masih berpeluang menopang penguatan indeks. Saat ini indeks sedang menguji level 3.800. Para investor tetap harus mewaspadai aksi profit taking beberapa saham. Indeks bergerak pada kisaran 3.710-3.810. Saham-saham rekomendasi kami adalah CMNP, BBNI, dan BBKP.
2. Kresna Graha Sekurindo
Tekanan jual asing kembali membuat IHSG tertekan, meskipun ditutup menguat. IHSG diperkirakan masih akan berkonsolidasi di kisaran 3.740-3.810 dengan TLKM dan MEDC sebagai saham pilihan.
3. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Meski kenaikan indeks sudah cukup tinggi, pada perdagangan hari ini IHSG masih berpeluang menguat dengan rentang gerak 3.746-3.804. Namun perlu diwaspadai adanya aksi profit taking mengingat hari ini adalah perdagangan akhir pekan. Dapat dicermati pola pembelian selektif untuk ADHI, INCO, ASII.
Deutsche Bank AG maintained an "Overweight" rating for Chinese, South Korean, and Indonesian banks. Meanwhile, the brokerage raising Malaysian banks to "Overweight" from "Neutral", according to the report by analysts Tracy Yu and Sophia Lee.
Asian banks may underperform on "overheating concerns" with a "significant" increase in Asia's property prices and inflation, Deutsche Bank AG said.
PT Krakatau Steel , Southeast Asia's biggest steelmaker, said on Thursday it is in talks with coking coal miner PT Borneo Lumbung Energi and Marunda Graha to help feed demand seen at 2.65 million of coal a year by 2014.
The firm is also considering buying equity stakes in Borneo Lumbung or Marunda to secure the supply.Source: Reuters
Tin is likely to outperform other base metals as demand growth outpaces production, widening a deficit through next year, according to an analyst with Standard Chartered Bank.
“Going forward, we expect global tin demand to continue to pick up from here,” Judy Zhu, a commodity analyst based in Shanghai, said at a seminar in Seoul. “We’d expect the tin market’s deficit to expand. We are bullish on tin and expect it to outperform the rest of base metals.”
Mine output will continue to be limited, with the production outlook for Democratic Republic of Congo and Indonesia remaining negative in the next 12 months, she said.
Stockpiles on the London Metal Exchange have fallen 42 percent this year, indicating a severe deficit, she said.
Tin for three-month delivery advanced 1.6 percent to $26,000 a metric ton today, bringing the gain this year to 53 percent, already the best of the LME metals.Source: Bloomberg
Two shareholders of PT Sarana Menara Nusantara , an Indonesian telecom tower operator, aim to sell 277.1 million shares to raise up to $368 million via a private placement, according to a termsheet seen by Reuters on Thursday. Source: Reuters
PT Bank Internasional Indonesia rose to the highest level in more than 10 years after parent company Malayan Banking Bhd. obtained a six-month extension to sell a stake in the unit, delaying the sale of a large block of shares.
Bank Internasional rose 25 percent to 1,010 at the 4 p.m. local-time close, the highest since April 2000. Maybank, as the parent company is known, is now required to sell the shares within six months to meet a government rule, Ahmad Fuad Rahmany, chairman of Indonesia’s capital market regulator, said today. The Malaysian bank was initially required to pare down its stake this year after its 2008 acquisition.
“The question is at what price will the shares be sold,” said Danny Eugene, an analyst at PT Mega Capital Indonesia. “People are speculating Maybank will sell at a high price.”
Maybank owns 95 percent of Bank Internasional after buying the majority stake from Temasek Holdings Pte and Kookmin Bank, which also triggered a takeover offer. Indonesia’s acquisition rules require Maybank to sell part of the stake back to the market if it ended up with more than 80 percent of the company.
Shares of Bank Internasional more than tripled this year, compared with a 49 percent gain in the Jakarta Composite index.Source: Bloomberg
Di hari pertama listingnya, investor asing melalui Macquarie Securities Indonesia memborong 85 ribu lot saham Bumi Resources Mineral (BRMS) di harga Rp 710 dan Rp 720, sehingga rata-ratanya menjadi Rp 718. Sama seperti Macquarie, sebagian kecil investor asing melalui UOB Kay Hian Securities juga membeli saham BRMS di harga Rp 710.
Selebihnya, aksi beli lebih banyak dilakukan investor lokal, seperti Trimegah Securities yang memborong 75.010 lot, Etrading Securities 73.625 lot, dan Danatama Makmur 288.149 lot.
Sebaliknya, aksi jual banyak dilakukan investor asing dengan dibantu oleh broker Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia sebanyak 187.958 lot, JP Morgan Securities Indonesia 134.107 lot, dan CIMB-GK Securities Indonesia 111.843 lot.
Investor lokal mulai memburu saham Borneo Lumbung Energi (BORN) seperti dilakukan Mandiri Sekuritas yang memborong 46.406 lot. Sebelumnya, dalam dua hari terakhir, investor asing telah memborong saham ini di harga Rp 1.340-1.360.
Kemarin, Mandiri Sekuritas juga memborong 47.189 lot saham BORN. Sedangkan Credit Suisse kemarin membeli 19.238 lot. Hari ini, investor asing kembali memborong saham BORN melalui Credit Suisse, sebanyak 32.726 lot.
Selebihnya, aksi beli tetap dilakukan investor lokal, baik melalui BNP Paribas Peregrine, CLSA Indonesia, maupun Bahana Securities.
PT Bumi Resources Minerals , a unit of Indonesia's biggest coal miner PT Bumi Resources , said on Thursday it would start production at its iron ore mine in Mauritania from Q4 2011 with annual output of 600,000 tonnes. Source: Bloomberg
Tiga sekuritas ternama memberikan ulasan soal kondisi perdagangan sepanjang Kamis, 9 Desember 2010, termasuk saham-saham pilihan yang patut dicermatin oleh para investor.
1. Kresna Graha Sekurindo
IHSG kembali menguji level tertinggi seiring kembalinya aliran modal asing di tengah minimnya katalis global. Hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan akan mencoba menguji rekor baru dengan bergerak di kisaran 3.705-3.800, dengan ADRO dan INTP sebagai saham pilihan.
2. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan Rabu (8/12), IHSG ditutup menguat 47 poin (1,28%) di kisaran 3.769. Asing melakukan net buy senilai Rp 204 milliar. Dari RSI dan stochastic terlihat IHSG masih uptrend dan berpeluang mencapai level tertinggi baru (new high), jika berhasil menembus 3.777. Level 3.777 dapat menjadi titik resistance 1 dari IHSG, sedangkan resistance 2 di kisaran 3.800. Hari ini, IHSG akan bergerak di kisaran 3.700–3.800, dengan saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain HRUM, ADRO, INTP, dan JSMR
3. Erdikha Sekuritas
IHSG ditutup menguat 47,65 poin menjadi 3.769,99 (1,28%). Penguatan indeks ini ditopang oleh penguatan saham-saham unggulan sektor pertambangan dan ragam industri. Secara teknikal, indeks masih mengindikasikan kenaikan, namun perlu diwaspadai aksi profit taking beberapa saham yang naik cukup tinggi. Hari ini, indeks bergerak pada kisaran 3.700-3.790. Rekomendasi ADRO, PGAS, dan SMGR.
Untuk perdagangan Kamis, 9 Desember 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihan yakni Astra International (ASII), Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI), Timah (TINS), dan Bank Bukopin (BBKP).
BUY: (ASII, ASRI,TINS, BBKP)
Pasar mulai bergerak untuk antisipasi hasil laporan keuangan Q4 2010, sehingga bila terjadi koreksi sehat akibat keadaan jenuh beli rekomen akumulasi.
IHSG close (08-12) 3.769.99 (+47.65/+1.28%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)
1. Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 57.100) (close 08/12 Rp 54.550)
Sentimen negatif dari placement di bawah harga penutupan pasar, potensi penurunan penjualan akibat skenario kenaikan BBM subsidi sebesar 40% kelihatannya sudah cukup tercermin dalam koreksi harga sebelumnya.
Kontribusi dari anak usaha alat berat & CPO dapat menunjang kinerja laba di Q4 2010 & 2011F.
Entry: (1) Rp 54.000, Entry (2) Rp 53.000, Cut loss point: Rp 51.500
2. Alam Sutera (ASRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 315) (Close 08/12 Rp 290)
Outlook pertumbuhan ekonomi dan suku bunga untuk 2011 yang kondusif dapat meningkatkan proyeksi Laba dan NAVS 2011 untuk emiten properti dengan profitability ratio (NPM/ROE 2011F) tertinggi di sektornya.
Entry (1) Rp 285, (2) Rp 275, Cut loss point: Rp 265
3. Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.975) (close 08/12 Rp 2.800)
Global inflation & recovery industry otomotif, computer & electronic dapat mendorong kenaikan harga komoditas timah untuk keperluan solder komponen di 2011, serta suplai yang ketat dapat mendorong analis untuk menaikan proyeksi laba & asumsi harga timah untuk 2011.
Entry: (1) Rp 2.750, Entry: (2) 2.650, Cut loss point: Rp 2.550
4. Bank Bukopin (BBKP): (BUY) (Target: Rp 710) (Close 08/12 Rp 660)
Beberapa katalis seperti potensi sinergi dari akuisisi oleh Jamsostek atau BRI yang meningkatkan funding, valuasi menarik dengan rasio PBV/ROE 2011F sebesar 11% & PER 2011F 11.7x (termurah di sektor pemain UKM) lambat laun akan mendorong akumulasi untuk melanjutkan uptrend kembali di BBKP.
Entry: (1) Rp 650, Entry (2) Rp 630, Cut loss point: Rp 610
Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Wednesday it saw production in 2010 at 40,000 tonnes or lower due to heavy rains hampering mining, down from an earlier forecast of 45-50,000 tonnes.
"Because of bad weather, with rain for almost the whole year, probably our output this year will only be 40,000 tonnes, or it could be less than 40,000. There is declining
production from offshore and onshore mines due to rains," said spokesman Abrun Abubakar.
The lower output forecast could exacerbate worries about declining supplies from Indonesia, which propelled benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a record high of $27,500 a tonne in November.
The La Nina weather anomaly is expected to prolong the rainy season in Indonesia for months, worsening a trend of falling tin supply. Analysts had expected Indonesia's refined tin output to fall nearly 6 percent this year because of the extended rains.Source: Reuters
* Miners to ramp up production when weather improves
* China, India investment to boost coal output
* Govt optimistic on rebound for tin output
* Copper output to fall on lower grade ore
Indonesia's government forecasts coal output will increase by 19 percent next year as drier weather enables miners to ramp up production amid growing regional demand, a senior mining official said on Wednesday.
Indonesia, the world's top thermal coal exporter, is seen producing 327 million tonnes next year, versus expected 2010 output of 275 million tonnes, said Bambang Setiawan, director general of coal and mineral resources at the energy and mineral resources ministry.
"Demand for coal is good so far. But production can change depending on the weather so hopefully the weather will be better next year," Setiawan told Reuters.
Indonesia has been hit by unseasonally heavy rains this year during what is normally the dry season of July to September, hitting output of coal, tin and other metals from miners such as Bayan Resources.
Growth in Indonesia's coal output will also be sustained in the next five years by expansion from the country's top 10 miners that make up about two-thirds of the country's production, said Somyot Ruchirawat, president director of PT Indo Tambangraya Megah , the country's fourth-largest producer and a unit of Thai miner Banpu.
"We forecast that Indonesia coal production growth in 2009-2015 will be around 11 percent per year and mostly from the major producers as well as newcomers," said Ruchirawat, at a mining conference in Bali.
"Supply will be sufficient to meet both the domestic and overseas market," he said.
Investment by major buyers India and China in the country's coal sector is expected to grow next year as they are struggling to secure supply. "A lot of companies from India and China will be participating in coal investment," said Ruchirawat, adding some would look to be operators while others would just seek to hold equity stakes.
While Chinese investors have struggled to buy stakes in Indonesian miners so far, Indonesia's powerful Bakrie family has joined forces with the Rothschild banking dynasty to cement its dominance of the Indonesian sector through a London-listed company Bumi Plc that plans to be the largest supplier of thermal coal to China.
TIN REBOUND?
The ministry forecast tin output from the world's top tin producer will climb significantly to 95,097 tonnes from 54,646 tonnes this year, Setiawan said.
However, this projection looks ambitious given a trend of declining output as easily recoverable onshore reserves are depleted and after a crackdown by police on illegal mining.
Top integrated tin miner PT Timah said its output would only be 40,000 tonnes or less this year because of the heavy rains, down from earlier forecasts for 45-50,000 tonnes, and worries over declining Indonesian output drove tin futures to a record last month.
Setiawan said production of copper would fall to 665,158 tonnes versus output this year of 908,645 tonnes."Copper production will be lower next year because miners will start mining lower grade ore," he said.
Production of ferronickel is estimated at 16,014 tonnes in 2011 compared to 18,727 tonnes this year. Source: Reuters
Indonesia’s benchmark stock index may rise 20 percent within a year on an expected upgrade of the nation’s sovereign debt rating to investment grade, according to BNP Paribas.
A re-rating of Indonesia’s debt will have “far-reaching implications in interest-rate structure, currency, investments and, ultimately, asset prices and valuations,” analyst Elvira Tjandrawinata wrote in a report today, rating Indonesian shares “overweight.” BNP set a 12-month target of 4,500 for the Jakarta Composite index, with recommendations including PT Astra International and PT Bank Mandiri.
Faster economic growth and record-low interest rates helped the Jakarta Composite gain 48 percent this year, the best performance among Asia’s 10 biggest markets. The index is trading at 18 times estimated earnings, the highest level since December 2007. Moody’s Investors Service said Dec. 1 it may upgrade Indonesia’s credit rating, citing economic “resilience” and sustained macroeconomic “balance.”
“Despite outperforming its peers in the region this year, we do not believe that the benefits of the re-rating have been fully priced in,” Tjandrawinata said. “Other catalysts could include a continued pickup in investments, which would feed into consumption, making it stronger and more sustainable.”
Record Low
Southeast Asia’s biggest economy may expand as much as 6.5 percent in 2011 from an estimated 6 percent this year, the central bank said on Dec. 6. Bank Indonesia has kept its key interest rate at a record low of 6.5 percent for 16 months, helping companies such as Astra, Indonesia’s biggest automotive retailer, boost sales. The Jakarta Composite index rose 0.9 percent to 3,754.91 as of the 12 p.m. local time break.
Indonesia and other Asian nations face “significant headwinds” from inflation in the first half and a “difficult absolute-returns environment until inflation and interest rates peak in mid-2011,” Jonathan Garner, Morgan Stanley’s Hong Kong- based chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, said Dec. 1.
Indonesia’s consumer price index in November gained 6.33 percent from a year earlier, the central statistics office said Dec. 1. That compares with a 5.98 percent median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Inflationary pressure will probably continue next year, Bank Indonesia Governor Darmin Nasution said.
Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services both rate Indonesia two levels below investment grade, with a positive outlook, while Fitch Ratings has the country one step below. “We are convinced that the re-rating is on track,” BNP’s report said.Source: Bloomberg
The Indonesian government raised the reference price for coal sales in December by 8.3 percent from a month earlier, the steepest increase since it was introduced in February, the energy ministry said.
The price benchmark for coal with a gross energy value of 6,322 kilocalories a kilogram was raised to $103.41 a metric ton this month from $95.51 a ton in November, the Directorate General of Coal and Minerals at the energy ministry said in a statement on its website today.
Below is a list of price references and markers, used to calculate prices for other coal types of similar quality from eight leading coal brands in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy, as compiled by the energy ministry. Grades are in kilocalories a kilogram, while prices are in U.S. dollars a ton.
Indonesia is the world’s largest exporter of the fuel after Australia.
Note: - Percentage changes calculated by Bloomberg News - The price reference is an average of the Indonesia Coal Index, Platts-1, Newcastle Export Index and the globalCOAL NEWC Index from the previous month. - The average of price reference for the last three months is used to set prices for a one-year contract for the following year. - For sales in barge, the reference price is excluding cost of barging and transshipment into vessel.Source: Bloomberg
Investor asing melalui BNP Paribas Peregrine dan Credit Suisse tampak memborong saham Bank Mandiri, masing-masing sebanyak 9.683 lot dan 6.314. Kemarin, Credit Suisse juga tampak memborong 16.214 lot.
Broker lain yang memfasilitasi aksi beli oleh investor asing adalah UBS Securities Indonesia 5.017 lot dan ABN AMRO Asia Securities Indonesia 4.056 lot.
Sedangkan Merrill Lynch yang kemarin melepas 10.239 lot saham BMRI, hari ini juga menjual 18.313 lot.
Toko Saham adalah blog khusus yang sengaja dibuat untuk menyediakan informasi bagi investor saham di seluruh Indonesia. Blog ini lahir karena didorong keterbatasan akses informasi bagi investor lokal terhadap kondisi dan perkembangan emiten dibandingkan para investor asing.
Investor asing dengan modal yang jauh lebih besar jauh diuntungkan posisinya dibandingkan investor lokal. Mereka bisa mengakses informasi soal perkembangan setiap emiten dari berbagai sumber.
Atas pemikiran itulah maka pada 14 Juli 2010, blog ini resmi terbentuk. Meski terbilang baru, saya berharap blog ini dapat merealisasikan misi di atas, yakni menjadi pusat informasi mengenai emiten-emiten di bursa saham Indonesia.
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Hi..i am a journalist at Investor Daily Indonesia. A Business Newspaper in Indonesia. This blog is not represented my office opinion and content.
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