Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas. Target harga dinaikkan menjadi Rp 15.100 yang mencerminkan nilai buku 4,7 kali tahun buku 2011.

Riset BBRI by Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Samuel Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Samuel Sekuritas. Target harga dinaikkan menjadi Rp 13.500/saham yang mencerminkan 3,8 kali nilai buku 2011. Target harga ini mencerminkan harga premium dan Samuel Sekuritas percaya target harga tersebut layak karena ROE BRI lebih tinggi dibandingkan bank-bank sekelasnya. Dibandingkan BCA dengan ROE yang sama, BCA diperdagangkan dengan nilai buku 4,5 kali.


Riset BBRI Oleh Samuel Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Bank Rakyat Indonesia oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas. Target harga dinaikkan menjadi Rp 13.000 menyusul peningkatan asumsi ROE yang mencerminkan prospek jangka panjang yang baik. Selain itu, Kim Eng melihat akuisisi Bank Agroniaga akan memperkuat bisnis kredit mikro BRI.

Riset BRI Oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 4 November 2010

Untuk perdagangan Kamis, 4 November 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham piliha, yakni Adaro Energy (ADRO), Bakrieland Development (ELTY), Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), dan Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA).

BUY: (ADRO, ELTY, TLKM, PTBA)

• Koreksi IHSG akibat switching portfolio counter saham oleh investor asing dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan masuk mengingat posisi rupiah yang tetap stabil memberi indikas bahwa belum terjadi capital outflow dana akibat penjualan asing.

• IHSG close (03-11) 3.606.096 (-19.820/-0.55%) (Val.Rp.4.0T)

• Support: 3.580-3.540-3.495, Resistance: 3.640-3.660-3.700

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.250) (close 03/11 Rp 2.150)

• Penurunan produksi batubara di Q3 2010 akibat memburuknya cuaca di Agustus dan September sudah mulai didiskons oleh pasar sehingga efek berita negatif yang akan keluar kelihatannya tidak akan membuat koreksi siginifikan.

• Efek positif dari harga batubara new castle yang sudah naik ke 100/ton belum sepenuhnya tercermin dalam harga saham.

• Secara teknikal memang terjadi akumulasi dengan potensi mencoba mengetes Rp 2.200

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.125, Entry (2) Rp 2.075, Cut loss point: Rp 2.025

2.   Bakrieland Development (ELTY) (BUY): (Target: Rp 171-184) (Close 03/11 Rp 161)

• Outlook property makin positif dengan kemungkinan pemerintah mempermudah undang-undang akuisisi tanah untuk asing, suku bunga stabil dan permintaan lokal didorong oleh pertumbuhan ekonomi membuat investor seharusnya melirik laggard property counter ELTY dengan landbank terbesar di sektornya.

• Entry (1) Rp 161, Entry(2) Rp 157, Cut loss point: Rp 155

 

3.   Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 8.400) (Close 03/11 Rp 8.050)

• Koreksi sebesar 10% akibat penurunan laba Q3 2010 sebesar 4% dan ketakutan akan analis membuat proyeksi downgrade EPS kedepan berlebihan dan secara teknikal seharusnya terjadi rebound dari keadaan jenuh jual extrim ini.

• Valuasi PER 2010 13.6x di bawah IHSG sendiri (14.5x) membuatnya menarik untuk dikoleksi.

• Entry: (1) Rp 8.050, Entry (2) Rp 7.900, Cut-loss point: Rp 7.700

 

4.   PT Bukit Asam (PTBA) (BUY) (Target: Rp 19.650) (close 03/11 Rp 18.700)

• Bila masih ada koreksi dari efek negatif penurunan laba akibat cuaca buruk untuk Q3 2010 rekomen akumulasi karena saham ini sudah mulai masuk daerah jenuh jual (oversold) dalam grafik harian dan mingguan.

• Valuasi PER 2010 (23x) termurah kedua setelah BUMI, membuatnya kembali menarik pasca koreksi ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 18.500, Entry (2) Rp 18.300, Cut-loss point: Rp 17.950

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Indonesia delays some tin exports due to rain

* Expected lower output squeezes supply to meet contracts
* Prolonged rains cut onshore production
* 70-85 pct output goes to long-term contracts

The world's top tin exporter, Indonesia, will delay some exports after heavy rains hit mining, adding to upward pressure on tin prices riding high due to supply concerns.
Indonesia's state-controlled tin producer PT Timah Tbk (TINS) will delay shipments to some buyers because of an expected fall in output, its president director said on Wednesday.

Heavy rains and floods have hit Indonesia, and La Nina weather is expected to prolong the rainy season for months, worsening a trend of falling tin supply.

Worries about declining supplies from Indonesia propelled benchmark tin CMSN3 on the London Metal Exchange (LME) to a record high of $27,338.50 a tonne in mid-October.
The rains have hampered Timah's mining and squeezed the supply of tin ore, leading to lower production of refined tin.

The firm will try to fill its 2010 tin output target of 50,000 tonnes but expects tin production to fall slightly next year, President Director Wachid Usman said.
"We will not be able to fulfil some contracts but we renegotiated with the customers and they have agreed," Usman said, of the delay that will affect customers from Asia Pacific countries including Japan, China and Korea.

Timah, the world's largest integrated tin miner, produced 29,631 tonnes of refined tin in the first nine months of 2010, a fall of 12 percent from 33,765 tonnes in the same 2009 period.

The firm sold 29,252 tonnes of refined tin in the period from January to September, down 20 percent from 36,453 tonnes a year earlier.

TIGHT SUPPLY PROSPECT

Timah's move to delay shipments means that tight supply may continue until next year, analysts said.

"It is a little surprising as earlier this year many had expected Timah to raise output. This does point to an even tighter market going into 2011," said David Wilson, an analyst at Societe Generale in London.

"It is difficult to see where else consumers can go to secure metal."

Tin CMSN3 on the London Metal Exchange stood at $25,899 a tonne, gaining 52.80 percent so far this year on supply worries.

Tin prices are expected to average at $24,750 a tonne next year, a 33 percent rise on forecasts from Reuters' July poll. The metal is seen averaging at $19,537.50 a tonne this year, analysts said, up 11 percent from the previous forecasts. 

Timah gave no details of delayed cargoes or how long the delays would last.

"Long-term contract customers understand our production situation," said Timah's spokesman Abrun Abubakar.

About 70 percent to 85 percent of Timah's tin production in 2010 has been distributed to long-term buyers and the rest to the spot market, Abrun said, adding that the firm expects the same distribution pattern next year.

Analysts had expected Indonesia's refined tin output to fall nearly 6 percent this year because of the extended rains.Source: Reuters

 

Indonesia Chandra Asri to shut naphtha unit October 2011

Indonesia's petrochemical maker PT Chandra Asri will shut its sole naphtha cracker next October for routine maintenance lasting 40-45 days, traders said on Wednesday.

Chandra Asri operates a 600,000 tonne-per-year (tpy) unit, which is currently the country's only cracker. It had recently merged with PT Tri Polyta Indonesia (TPIA), its propylene buyer.

Chandra Asri imports a portion of its feedstock for the cracker, which needs around 1.8 million tonnes of naphtha year if operated at full capacity. The Indonesian firm last Friday bought a naphtha parcel for early-December arrival from a Japanese trader. But price details were not disclosed.

Naphtha sentiment was strong in recent weeks due to robust demand from North Asia, pushing cracks to a 7-½ month high on Monday to $154.68 a tonne premium before easing to $153.58 a tonne premium on Tuesday.Source: Reuters

Tinjauan Ekonomi Danamon November 2010

Tinjauan Perekonomian Nasional bulan November 2010.

Tinjauan Ekonomi Danamon November 2010

Riset Bank Mandiri oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Bank Mandiri oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas. Target harga dinaikkan menjadi Rp 8.200. Bank Mandiri akan mengantungi pendapatan dari pembayaran tunggakan kredit macet Garuda Indonesia senilai Rp 1,3 triliun dan Dombas Mas Rp 1,6 triliun.


Riset Bank Mandiri Oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas

Riset Bank Mandiri oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Bank Mandiri oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas. Oleh Ciptadana, target harga dinaikkan menjadi Rp 9.100, setara dengan 4,2 kali nilai buku 2011. Sedangkan mengenai rights issue, Bank Mandiri, Ciptadana mengasumsikan harganya akan ditawarkan di Rp 7.100. Ini didasari perhitungan Bank Mandiri akan melakukan rights issue 10,13% atau 2,1 miliar saham baru pada kuartal I-2011 dengan target dana Rp 15 triliun.


Riset BMRI Oleh Ciptadana Sekuritas

Riset Bank Mandiri oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Bank Mandiri oleh AAA Sekuritas. Target harga dinaikkan dari Rp 7.100 menjadi Rp 8.200 karena AAA Sekuritas melihat ada potensi kenaikan 2011 sebesar 1,8% lebih tinggi dan ROE dari 25% menjadi 26%, ketiga terbesar setelah BBCA dan BBRI.


Bank Mandiri juga hanya menghapusbuku kredit Rp 160 miliar dari rata-rata Rp 2,2 triliun dan pada saat bersamaan NPL korporasi turun dari 4,5% pada kuartal III-2009 menjadi 1,59% pada kuartal III-2010 yang menunjukkan kredit macet peninggalan bank-bank sebelum merger sudah tuntas. NIM menguat sejak kuartal IV-2009 menjadi 5,35% dengan ROE menguat hingga 23,1% dan ke depannya akan meningkat menjadi 26% berkat marjin tinggi dari kredit konsumer dan mikro kecil.
 
Riset Bank BMRI Oleh AAA Sekuritas

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 3 November 2010

Untuk perdagangan Rabu, 3 November 2010, HD Capital merekomendasikan pembelian empat saham pilihan, yakni PT Timah (TINS), Indika Energy (INDY), Astra International (ASII), dan Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE).

 BUY: (TINS, INDY, ASII, BSDE)

• Sentimen positif menjelang meeting stimulus the Fed dapat mengairahkan emerging market dan pasar komoditas sehingga IHSG dapat mengetes kembali all time high di 3.660.
• IHSG close (02-11) 3.625.488 (-19.659/-0.54%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.580-3.540-3.495, Resistance: 3.660-3.700-3.750

 

Stock picks:

 

1.     Tambang Timah  (TINS): (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.100) (close 02/11 Rp 2.925)

• Recovery harga timah akan sangat terbantu pasca dikeluarkannya stimulus the Fed yang dapat mendorong harga komoditas kembali naik akibat melemahnya US$.
• Laba bersih Q3 yang naik 178% membuat analis tetap optimistis akan proyeksi EPS 2011 

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.925, Entry (2) Rp 2.850, Cut loss point: Rp 2.750

 

2.   Indika Energy (INDY) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.000) (Close 02/11 Rp 3.750)

• Optimisme pasar bahwa kinerja laba bersih 9 bulan dapat naik 40% versus tahun lalu dan naiknya harga batubara dari US$ 96/ton ke US$100/ton dalam sepekan lalu membuat para analis mempertahankan outlook proyeksi laba 2011F.

• Produksi batubara di Q2 & Q3 (6-bulan terakhir) kelihatannya tidak terpengaruh signifkan dari efek cuaca seperti ADRO, PTBA dan BUMI
• Entry (1) Rp 3.725, Entry(2) Rp 3.650, Cut loss point: Rp 3.575.
  

3.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 59.400) (Close 02/11) Rp 56.550

• Formasi segitiga yang semakin menyempit dengan volume kecil memberi sinyal kalau akan terjadi breakout untuk menguji ke upper end di Rp 59.400 dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 56.100, Entry (2) 55.000, Cut loss point: Rp 54.000

 

4.   Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE) (BUY) (Target: Rp 980) (close 02/11 Rp 870)

• Minor flag pattern untuk mencoba retrcament menutup price gap di Rp 980-1.040 akan terjadi dalam beberapa hari ke depan, dengan penentuan break garis resistance di down-trend-line Rp 900.

• Entry: (1) Rp 870, Entry (2) Rp 850, Cut-loss point: Rp 840

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Lotte,Carlyle in race to buy Matahari hypermart-sources

* Indonesian group wants $1 bln for hypermart unit-sources
* Matahari wants to focus more on healthcare, property assets
* Merrill Lynch advising Matahari on the sale
* Matahari shares up 3.5 pct vs 0.3 pct fall in main index

South Korea's Lotte Shopping (023530.KS) and U.S. private equity firm Carlyle [CYL.UL] are in a race to buy Indonesia's Matahari (MPPA) hypermart business which the group hopes to sell for $1 billion, three sources said.

Matahari is selling Hypermart, Indonesia's second biggest hypermart chain after PT Carrefour Indonesia, as it tries to focus on its core healthcare and property assets.
The sale is a seen as good opportunity to raise exposure to Indonesia's retail sector as a healthy economy, forecast to grow 6.0-6.2 percent this year, and a booming stock market boosts consumption in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.

At least three to four preliminary bids went in last week for Matahari Hypermart, three sources familiar with the deal said.

"Lotte and Carlyle are in," said one of the sources, who asked not to be named because the bidding process is not public.

"Lippo group is trying to sell its non-core assets and put more focus in its prime assets in properties and health-care, that's why they want to sell Hypermart," said Ari Pitoyo, head of research at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta, referring to Matahari's parent company.

"The retail business is fueled with intense competition while the margin is smaller around 7 to 9 percent compared with (higher) margins in properties and hospitals."

The sale process comes at a time when Carrefour, Europe's biggest retailer, hopes to sell its Singapore, Malaysia and Thai businesses for $1 billion and has set Nov. 5 as a deadline for the second round of bids. 

It also comes just a few months after Matahari agreed to sell a 90.76 percent stake in retail unit Matahari Department Store to a joint venture with private equity group CVC Partners [CVC.UL] for $770 million. 

INDONESIA APPEAL

Matahari's Hypermart owns 38 stores in 21 cities across Indonesia, ranking it behind market leader PT Carrefour Indonesia which operates 65 stores. The group declined to name the bidders.

Lotte, the fourth-biggest hypermart player in Indonesia, is South Korea's fifth largest conglomerate in terms of assets and has in recent years actively snapped up M&A targets across Asia in the face of an increasingly saturated retail market at home.

Last December, Lotte bought Chinese supermarket operator Times and operates 79 supermarkets in the country. In Indonesia, Lotte purchased Dutch wholesaler Makro in October 2008.

"Following the acquisition of Makro, Lotte has established itself well in Indonesia, and its pursuit of Matahari is a sign it wants to root itself more firmly in the country," said Ahn Ji-young, an analyst at IBK Securities.

"Rather than expanding in terms of country profile, Lotte wants to strengthen and focus more its operations in countries where it is already doing well, such as Indonesia and China."

Dairy Farm HERO.SI, seen as a potential bidder, declined to comment on whether it is interested in Matahari Hypermart.

Dairy Farm's unit in Indonesia, PT Hero Supermarket HERO.SI, is the third biggest in the hypermart business.

Bank of America's Merrill Lynch is advising PT Matahari Putra Prima, which is owned by Indonesia's Riady family. Spokesmen at Merrill and Carlyle declined to comment.

Lotte is being advised by HSBC (HSBA.L) and UBS (UBSN.VX) is advising Carlyle. Officials from Lotte and the banks declined to comment.

Matahari shares were up 3.5 percent, outperforming Indonesia's benchmark index, which was down 0.3 percent at 0513 GMT.Source: Reuters

Macquarie Borong 123 Ribu Lot Saham ASRI

Investor asing melalui Macquarie Securities Indonesia memborong 123.441 lot saham Alam Sutera Realty (ASRI) di harga rata-rata Rp 294,4. Aksi beli ini berhasil membuat harga saham ASRI terkerek naik menjadi Rp 290 atau naik Rp 5 setelah sempat menyentuh Rp 305.


Di sisi lain, investor asing juga melakukan penjualan dipimpin oleh JP Morgan yang melepas 30.885 lot dan Deutsche Securities 20 ribu lot. Namun, volume pembelian yang lebih besar dari Macquarie disertai aksi beli investor lokal melalui Meridian Capital dan Nusadana Capital yang masing-masing membeli 56.020 lot dan 38.620 lot membuat harga saham ASRI masih naik.

1	RX	MACQUARIE SECURITIES INDONESIA	342	123,441	294.40	3	4,000	300.00	119,441	127,441
2	BM	MERIDIAN CAPITAL	154	56,020	296.30	47	11,000	295.31	45,020	67,020
3	DR	NUSADANA CAPITAL INDONESIA	78	38,620	295.79	58	18,707	294.93	19,913	57,327
4	IF	SAMUEL SEKURITAS INDONESIA	50	20,200	295.00	3	335	298.21	19,865	20,535
5	PK	PRATAMA CAPITAL INDONESIA	8	10,050	290.02	9	2,240	300.00	7,810	12,290
93	KZ	CLSA INDONESIA	-	-	-	4	18,080	290.00	-18,080	18,080
94	DB	DEUTSCHE SECURITIES INDONESIA	-	-	-	19	20,000	295.00	-20,000	20,000
95	BK	J.P MORGAN SECURITIES INDONESIA	3	4,669	295.00	97	30,885	291.77	-26,216	35,554

Credit Suisse Borong 132 Ribu Lot Saham ELTY

Nasabah lokal Credit Suisse Securities Indonesia dan sedikit investor lokal dari sekuritas itu memborong 132.435 lot saham Bakrieland Development (ELTY) di harga rata-rata Rp 158,28. Aksi beli Credit Suisse (yang terkenal dekat dengan Grup Bakrie) ini terlihat mencolok jika dibandingkan volume beli broker-broker lain.


Mandiri Sekuritas misalnya hanya membeli 16.289 lot dan Trimegah Securities 33.515 lot. Sebaliknya, investor lokal melalui tiga broker masih terus melakukan penjualan dipimpin oleh Kim Eng Sekuritas yang melepas 54.249 lot, E-Trading Securities 88.753 lot, dan Nusadana Capital 66.910.


Aksi beli oleh Credit Suisse ini cukup berhasil menahan harga saham ELTY tidak jatuh dan bertahan di posisi Rp 158.

1	CS	CREDIT SUISSE SECURITIES INDONESIA	221	132,435	158.28	8	10,000	157.00	122,435	142,435
2	CC	MANDIRI SEKURITAS	26	16,289	157.80	15	4,730	157.53	11,559	21,019
3	LG	TRIMEGAH SECURITIES TBK.	73	33,515	157.64	36	24,395	158.31	9,120	57,910
4	YJ	LAUTANDHANA SECURINDO	12	9,822	157.92	16	4,032	157.28	5,790	13,854
5	EL	EVERGREEN CAPITAL	24	6,906	156.51	2	1,500	158.67	5,406	8,406
78	DR	NUSADANA CAPITAL INDONESIA	58	33,570	158.30	108	66,910	158.80	-33,340	100,480
79	YP	ETRADING SECURITIES	260	52,930	157.52	339	88,753	157.95	-35,823	141,683
80	ZP	KIM ENG SEKURITAS	29	5,663	158.03	125	54,249	158.74	-48,586	59,912