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Thursday, June 23, 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 23 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 23 Juni 2011
BUY: (ASII, BBRI, BUMI, TLKM)

  • Bila terjadi profit taking akibat imbas regional bisa dijadikan sebagai kesempatan untuk membuka posisi baru untuk yang belum ikut dalam tren kenaikan selama ini. 

  • IHSG close (22-06) 3.821.23(+28.62/+0.71%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

  • Support: 3.730-3.700, Resistance: 3,880-3.950

 

Stock picks:

1.     Astra International (ASII) (BUY) (Target Rp 61.450) (Close 22/06 Rp 60.000)

  • Keadaan overbought di daily stochastic 5 hari pasca rally yang lumayan kencang selama 2 hari berturut-turut dapat menyebabkan profit taking atau koreksi untuk menutup price gap bawah di Rp 59.100.

  • Entry (1) Rp 59.100, Entry (2) Rp 58.700, Cut loss point: Rp 58.100

 

2.    Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.450) (Close 22/06 Rp 6.350)

  • Kegagalan untuk menutup di atas upper end formasi segitiga di Rp 6.500 menunda skenario breakout untuk BBRI namun bila terjadi koreksi minor menuju lower neckline triangle di Rp 6.250-6.150 bisa digunakan untuk trading menangkap rebound kembali ke atas.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 6.250, Entry (2) Rp 6.150, Cut loss point: Rp 6.050

 

3.   Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.300) (Close 22/06 Rp 3.200)

  • Bila terjadi koreksi akibat kecewanya market setelah kenaikan rasio utang persero untuk menutup price gap bawah di Rp 3.100 dan support bawah berikutnya di Rp 2.975 karena grafik mingguan secara technical mulai menunjukan sedikit perbaikan.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 3.100, Entry (2) Rp 2.975, Cut loss point: Rp 2.875

 

4.       Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.350) (Close 22/06 Rp 7.150)

  • Koreksi minor atau pullback ke level Rp 7.100 dan 6.950 dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi posisi untuk mengikuti proses kenaikan minor uptrend untuk menutup price gap atas di Rp 7.300-7.400.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 7.100, Entry (2) Rp 6.950, Cut loss point: Rp 6.850

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 23 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Kamis, 23 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
Perdagangan kemarin, IHSG naik 26 poin (0,71%) ke level 3.821. Investor asing tercatat melakukan net buying Rp 723 miliar. Perlu diwaspadai aksi profit taking karena indeks telah menguat selama tiga hari berturut-turut. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak pada range 3.790–3.844. Cermati MEDC dan BDMN. 

2. Kresna Sekurindo
Dengan ditutup di tren turun pola bull flag, IHSG diperkirakan masih akan mencoba membentuk tren naik baru. Outlook ekonomi AS versi The Fed akan menjadi salah satu sentimen pendorong indeks. Hari ini, indeks akan menguji area positif di kisaran 3.790-3.855 dengan MEDC dan DOID sebagai saham pilihan.

3. Trimegah Securities
Di tengah kekhawatiran serta penantian akan kepastian pertumbuhan perekonomian global, masih tersedia ruang bagi IHSG untuk melanjutkan rally. Hari ini indeks akan menguji kembali resistance di level 3.850. Untuk itu, pelaku pasar bisa memanfaatkan momentum ini, karena di saat yang sama fast moving Oscillator mulai merambah area jenuh beli. Trading sell ASII, BBRI, UNTR.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Indonesia to investigate palm oil company that allegedly breached moratorium

Indonesia's REDD+ Task Force will investigate charges that PT Menteng Jaya Sawit Perdana (PT Menteng), a palm oil company owned by Malaysia-based Kuala Lumpur Kepong Berhad (KLK), has cleared peat forest in breach of the country's newly-signed moratorium on the granting of new forestry licenses on peatlands and in primary forest areas.

The allegation was levied by the Environmental Investigative Agency, an international NGO, and Telapak, an Indonesian group, after an on-the-ground undercover investigation. EIA and Telapak found that PT Menteng had cleared peat forest near Sampit in Indonesia's Central Kalimantan province without securing proper licenses. PT Menteng had only a Location Permit, not the Plantation Business Permit required under Indonesian plantation law or a permit from the Ministry of Forestry releasing the 7,400-ha (18,300-acre) concession.

PT Menteng's parent company KLK has since called the accusation "preposterous", yet has failed to produce any evidence showing that it has secured the proper permits, according to EIA.

"EIA and Telapak's evidence shows that the KLK subsidiary PT Menteng was systematically clearing land within Indonesia’s moratorium zone in the REDD+ Pilot Province," EIA's Tomasz Johnson told mongabay.com. 

"Plantation licensing records held by the Provincial and Central governments, also held by EIA, indicate that KLK does not have a plantation business operation permit for PT Menteng, nor has the land in question been released from the forest estate by the Ministry of Forestry."

In comments emailed to Reuters, KLK admitted a small area of potential illegal clearing by a contractor, but asserted it had secured a permit in 2009, two years before the moratorium went into affect. By EIA also cast doubt on those claims.

"KLK’s claim that an 'over-eager' contractor may have cleared 70 hectares does nothing to address [its lack of the proper permits]," said Johnson. "Nor does KLK’s claim to have obtained a plantation business permit for 6,000 hectares in 2009 clarify the matter any further. They refer to 'Kalimantan province', which doesn't exist, and don't stipulate which of their numerous concessions or subsidiaries the permit is supposedly for - in Central Kalimantan alone KLK has at least three concessions operating in just under 30,000 ha. "

"KLK's own company report from 2010 makes no reference to a plantation business permit for PT Menteng. Our evidence stacks up, KLK's doesn't."

To bolster its case, EIA released a trove of video, photos, and GPS coordinates. Last week, EIA and Telapak issued a joint report — Caught REDD Handed — detailing the alleged transgressions by PT Menteng. 

The allegations are especially damaging because the investigation occurred the day the forest moratorium was officially defined by Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. The two-year moratorium is part of Indonesia's commitment to reduce emissions from deforestation and peatlands degradation under a $1 billion REDD+ agreement with Norway. Central Kalimantan, the province where the alleged clearing took place, is the pilot province for Indonesia's REDD+ program.

The report also caused some discomfort in Norway by highlighting the Norwegian government's $41 million investment in KLK. The KLK shares are held in Norway's pension fund portfolio, which also includes other logging and plantation companies linked to deforestation in Indonesia.

"Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global (GPFG) has investments in scores of plantation and logging companies in Indonesia, including four major groups operating 24 plantation subsidiaries without relevant permits in the Central Kalimantan Pilot Province," said EIA in a statement. "Norway has made roughly five times more money from plantations and logging in Indonesia and neighboring countries during the past year – including illegal operations – than it has granted to Indonesia thus far under the US$1bn REDD+ Letter of Intent."  Source: Mongabay
 

Pearl Energy to invest $350m in Indonesia gas field

Pearl Energy, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi's Mubadala Development Company, will invest about $350 million (Dh1.2 billion) in the development of the joint venture Ruby natural gas field in Indonesia in which it holds a 70 per cent stake, Andy Mitchell, Director, Corporate Communications at Mubadala Oil and Gas, told Gulf News Tuesday.

"The field will come on stream in the latter part of 2013.
"It is expected to produce 80 million standard cubic feet of gas per day," Mitchell said.
"It's a profitable development for us and would establish Mubadala as an operator in Indonesia,' he added.

Pearl Energy operates a range of exploration, development and production assets in Southeast Asia.

The development of the Ruby offshore gas field was approved by BPMigas, Indonesia's Upstream Oil and Gas Executive Agency, allowing the project to proceed to the construction and installation stage, Mubadala said in a statement.

Investment
The development phase will involve total investment of approximately $500 million by the field partners Pearl Oil (Sebuku) Limited, Total E&P Sebuku and Inpex South Makassar Ltd. Ruby is located in the Makassar Strait between Kalimantan and the island of Sulawesi, within the Sebuku Production Sharing Contract area.

The block covers 2,345 square kilometres with water depths ranging from 50 to 200 metres.
The offshore development will consist of the drilling of an anticipated four production wells and the installation of two main structures — a wellhead platform, bridge-linked to a production platform.

Gas will be transported to shore via a 14-inch, 312km pipeline and a dedicated receiving terminal, for processing at the Senipah Onshore Gas Plant, operated by Total E&P, Mubadala added.

It will then be delivered to the buyer, PT Pupuk Kalimantan Timur, which operates a nearby fertiliser plant, under the terms of a wider Natural Gas Sales and Purchase Agreement covering the Sebuku and Mahakam PSCs that was also signed this week, said Mubadala.

"Ruby is our first full-field, operated development project in Indonesia, and as such it is an important project for us to have brought to the point of sanction.

"Our efforts will now be directed to working with our contractors to deliver Ruby into production safely and on schedule," said Barry O'Donnell, Regional vice-president of Mubadala Oil and Gas. Source: Gulf News

Garuda Indonesia Orders 25 Airbus A320 Planes to Replace Boeing 737 Fleet

PT Garuda Indonesia ordered 25 Airbus SAS A320s, including 10 A320neos, as it replaces a fleet of Boeing Co. (BA) single-aisle aircraft at its low-cost unit. 

The contract, worth about $2.2 billion at list prices, also includes options for another 25 A320neo planes, Garuda Chief Financial Officer Elisa Lumbantoruan said by e-mail today. The Citilink unit, which operates five 737s, will receive the new Airbus aircraft from early 2014, he said. 

The deal builds momentum for the A320neo after Toulouse- based Airbus yesterday won 90 orders for the plane on the first day of the Paris Air Show. Boeing is deciding between joining Airbus in offering a revamped single-aisle aircraft with new engines and developing an all-new model. 

Garuda, Indonesia’s biggest carrier, picked the Airbus planes because of lower operating costs and because they were more quickly available than Boeing models, Lumbantoruan said. Slots for the 737 are sold out until 2016, Jim Albaugh, the head of Boeing’s commercial-plane unit, said in an interview yesterday. 

Airbus markets the A320neo as 15 percent more fuel efficient than current planes. Deliveries of the new aircraft are due to begin in 2015. 

Citilink also plans to add four leased Airbus A320s this year to support traffic growth that’s three times as fast as last year, Garuda said earlier this month. The unit flies to domestic cities including Jakarta, Surabaya and Denpasar.  Source: Bloomberg

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 21 Juni 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Selasa 21 Juni 2011
Kode Saham                             Volume                             Jual                           Beli
AALI 577.000 139.500 341.500
ADRO 39.238.000 16.864.500 26.741.500
AKRA 34.616.000 20.000 2.604.500
AMFG 41.500 0 9.500
ANTM 24.620.000 2.415.000 3.888.500
ARTI 6.794.000 0 186.000
ASGR 559.500 0 51.500
ASRI 36.500.500 5.000.000 9.727.500
BBKP 6.535.000 235.000 1.640.500
BBRI 23.785.000 4.184.500 12.834.500
BBTN 6.647.500 313.000 3.015.000
BISI 10.049.500 100.000 206.500
BJBR 26.642.500 479.000 9.986.500
BKSL 77.573.000 0 17.656.500
BMRI 29.324.000 2.931.000 12.500.000
BMTR 6.746.500 0 1.136.000
BNII 367.500 30.000 150.000
BRAU 36.960.500 0 3.875.000
BSDE 15.599.500 0 3.500.000
CPIN 15.511.000 1.600.500 7.255.000
CTRA 4.581.500 1.972.000 3.281.000
CTRP 11.027.000 0 3.000.000
CTRS 7.823.000 192.000 400.000
DEWA 333.379.500 0 8.624.000
EMTK 128.500 0 110.500
ENRG 554.226.000 18.467.500 64.115.000
ETWA 9.235.500 0 1.519.500
EXCL 4.669.000 539.500 4.076.000
GGRM 1.195.000 654.000 988.000
GIAA 11.081.000 0 20.000
GJTL 10.113.000 270.000 2.072.000
HEXA 762.000 49.500 186.000
HRUM 1.835.000 11.500 614.000
ICBP 6.255.500 897.000 1.349.500
INDF 31.903.000 4.615.500 20.505.000
INDS 11.729.500 50.000 589.500
INTP 923.500 171.500 472.500
INVS 364.000 209.000 353.500
IPOL 29.156.000 0 5.000.000
ISAT 1.897.500 5.500 1.253.500
JAWA 1.211.500 0 379.500
JSMR 12.308.000 305.500 605.000
KIJA 30.415.000 6.188.500 9.480.500
KKGI 438.000 49.000 211.000
KLBF 15.636.000 2.695.500 3.436.000
LPKR 141.731.500 3.678.500 78.171.500
MAPI 1.710.500 371.000 1.022.500
MASA 9.550.000 0 1.500.000
MDRN 1.273.000 0 1.267.500
MIDI 1.491.500 0 151.500
PGAS 15.669.500 8.374.000 10.892.000
PNBN 5.119.500 356.000 4.256.000
PTPP 3.694.000 0 3.174.000
RALS 2.424.000 109.000 872.000
SCMA 909.000 19.500 375.000
SGRO 3.300.000 90.500 1.804.500
SIMP 19.877.000 5.594.500 7.913.500
SMCB 750.000 0 94.500
SMGR 7.057.000 371.500 6.296.500
SMRA 7.960.500 1.137.000 6.070.000
SMSM 1.058.500 0 30.500
SSIA 5.688.000 1.000.000 3.069.000
TBIG 1.280.000 50.000 1.023.500
TBLA 2.982.500 0 94.000
TCID 226.500 220.000 149.000
TLKM 12.521.500 3.231.500 7.271.000
TRAM 69.741.500 0 376.000
TSPC 280.500 50.000 280.000
UNSP 101.234.000 530.000 978.000
UNTR 5.349.500 873.500 3.623.500
UNVR 782.000 26.000 171.000

Chandra Asri Bentuk Anak Usaha di Bidang Pelabuhan

PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (TPIA), perusahaan yang bergerak di bidang industri petrokimia terpadu merencanakan membentuk anak usaha yang bergerak di bidang pelabuhan.

"Rencana pembentukan anak usaha dibidang pelabuhan telah mendapat persetujuan dari pemegang saham," kata Corporate Secretary & Investor Relations Director PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk Suryandi, di Jakarta, Selasa (21/6), usai Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan dan Luar Biasa (RUPST/ RUPSLB).

Menurut dia, anak perusahaan ini nantinya bergerak khusus di bidang pengelolaan terminal dan fasilitas pelabuhan lainnya. Pelabuhan dimaksud adalah pelabuhan atau jetty yang selama ini sudah beroperasi di pabrik Chandra Asri Petrochemical di Banten.

Dengan berdirinya anak usaha tersebut, maka fasilitas pelabuhan dapat dimanfaatkan oleh industri lain, utamanya yang berada di sekitar pabrik Chandra Asri Petrochemical. Pengoperasian anak usaha itu akan memperkuat lini bisnis Chandra Asri Petrochemical dan mendukung kinerja pendapatan berkelanjutan (recurring income) perseroan pada tahun-tahun yang akan datang.

Untuk menyambung mata rantai produksi petrokimia dari hulu ke hilir, pada September 2011 mendatang, Perseroan akan memulai pembangunan pabrik butadiene pertama di Indonesia yang diharapkan selesai pada pertengahan 2013.

Pabrik dengan total investasi sebesar US$ 110 juta ini berkapasitas sebesar 100 ribu ton per tahun dan selanjutnya akan dioperasikan oleh anak perusahaan CAP, yaitu PT Petrokimia Butadiene Indonesia.

Seluruh produksi butadiene yang merupakan bahan baku Karet Sintetis (Styrene Butadiene Rubber) tersebut terutama akan dipasarkan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan dalam negeri dan selebihnya akan diekspor.

Perseroan juga berencana meningkatkan kapasitas produksi ethylene dari 600 ribu ton per tahun menjadi 1 juta ton per tahun serta polyethylene dari 320 ribu ton per tahun menjadi 540 ribu ton per tahun dalam kurun waktu tiga sampai lima tahun mendatang dengan perkiraan investasi sebesar US$ 400-450 juta.


Rekomendasi HD Capital, 22 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 22 Juni 2011.
BUY: RALS, BMRI, BUMI, GJTL

  • IHSG mulai berubah dari tren turun yang terbentuk dalam downtrend channel sejak dua minggu menjadi sideways pattern dengan resistance kunci di 3.810, karena bila level tersebut terlewatkan maka kenaikan akan berlanjut hingga 3.880-3.900.


  • IHSG close (21-06) 3.780.145(+502933/+1.43%) (Val.Rp.3.2T)

  • Support: 3.770-3.730, Resistance: 3,880-3.950

 

Stock picks:

1.      Ramayana Lestari Sentosa (RALS) (BUY) (Target Rp 840) (Close 21/06 Rp 770)

  • Optisme pasar untuk penjualan retail di Q2 yang didorong oleh meningkatnya daya beli konsumen, penguatan rupiah dan menjelang lebaran nanti (yang akan mempengaruhi laba di Q3 2011 secara signifikan) menjadi katalis penggerak saham ini ke upper end trading range.


  • Entry (1) Rp 760, Entry (2) Rp 740, Cut loss point: Rp 720


 

2.    Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.150) (Close 21/06: Rp 6.950)

  • Rupiah yang kuat membuat sumber pendaanan kredit tetap murah (aset berbasis government bonds) sehingga target pertumbuhan kredit corporate dan consumer di 2011 sebesar 23% dapat tercapai.


  • Entry (1) Rp 6.950, Entry (2) Rp 6.800, Cut-loss point: Rp 6.650

 

3.    Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.075) (Close 21/06 Rp 3.250)

  • Secara technical penutupan BUMI kembali di atas level psikologis Rp 3.000 membuat daily stochastic menukik naik dari daerah deep oversold sehingga kemungkinan upward retracement untuk mengetes moving average 5 hari (Rp 3.100) dan 10-hari (Rp 3.250) dapat terjadi.


  • Entry: (1) Rp 3.050, Entry (2) Rp 2.975, Cut loss point: Rp 2.900

 




4.   Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.150) (Close 21/06 Rp 2.950).


  • Bila terjadi pullback koreksi rekomen akumulasi dalam pattern perbaikan tren turun ke sideways dengan kemungkinan scenario break downtrend channel ke resistance target di Rp 3.150.


  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.850, Entry (2) Rp 2.750, Cut loss point: Rp 2.675


 



Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 22 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Rabu, 22 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
IHSG kemarin melonjak 66 poin (1,76%) ke level 3.794.94, tertinggi dalam satu bulan terakhir. Hal ini menyusul optimisme pasar global dan regional akan penyelesaian krisis utang Yunani. Investor asing tercatat melakukan net buying Rp316 miliar. Secara teknikal, indeks berpotensi melanjutkan penguatannya pada hari ini di kisaran 3.759–3.824. Cermati BUMI, INDY, dan PTBA.

2. Trimegah Securities
Support psikologis di level 3.750 diharapkan mampu menjadi basis bagi IHSG untuk dapat bertahan dalam area positif. Sinyal positif dari beberapa leading indicator penunjang membuka peluang bagi IHSG untuk bergerak di kisaran 3.745–3.820. Trading buy TLKM, INDF, UNVR.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas  
Pada perdagangan Rabu (22/6), secara teknikal, indeks cenderung bergerak menguat pada kisaran 3.756-3.827. Sentimen eksternal seperti hasil rapat The Fed dan perkembangan krisis utang di Yunani akan memberikan sentimen terhadap indeks. Cermati BJBR, INDF, UNTR, BBTN.

Tuesday, June 21, 2011

Rothschild coal venture lists fraud among IPO risks

* New Vallar parent company Bumi to list June 28
* Lists risks including bribery, tax official's allegations
* Retains consultant to review Bumi Resources procedures 


Bumi Plc, the renamed venture founded by Nat Rothschild and majority-owned by Indonesia's Bakrie family, has detailed fraud and allegations of graft among risks to investors eyeing its shares when they list next week. 

Bumi has published its prospectus ahead of a listing of the company's shares on the premium segment of London's official list, the first step in the path to a spot in the FTSE index . 

"It may not be possible for the group to detect or prevent evey instance of fraud, bribery and corruption in every jurisdiction," Bumi said. 

Prospectuses for companies operating in some of the world's more difficult geographies often detail fraud risk. 

However, the involvement of the politically connected Bakrie family has generated increased interest in Bumi's listing documents, not least because of the perceived lack of disclosure among Bakrie-linked companies. 

The potential catapulting into the FTSE of one of Indonesia's best-known political families, delays to the listing and the complexity of the deal have added to pressure on the company. 

So too have concerns surrounding other miners majority-owned by emerging markets investors, particularly Kazakh miner ENRC which has been damaged by a boardroom split.
Bumi, which disclosed risks to investors over 20 pages, said Indonesia, where its activites are focused, ranks 110 out of 178 countries in Transparency International's 2010 Corruption Perceptions Index. 

It also highlighted allegations made by an Indonesian tax official at the centre of a high-profile corruption trial, Gayus Tambunan, who said subsidiaries Bumi Resources, KPC and Arutmin paid him $3 million to settle tax disputes. 

Tambunan was convicted in January for bribery and abuse of power and faces a new trial over fake passports. 

Bumi said Indonesia police had found insufficient evidence to file charges against Bumi Resources, and internal investigations found the allegations "groundless". 

But the company has retained a third-party consultant to review procedures for cash payments and said that corruption allegations "even if untrue, could harm the group's reputation". 

"They are being ultra-cautious," said one source familiar with the listing process, referring to anti-corruption policies.

PREPARING FOR FTSE
Bumi Plc shares, which will begin trading on June 28, replace existing shares in Vallar , Rothschild's original venture for investment in the mining sector. 

The listing of Bumi is the final step in Vallar's major transformation, which began last year with the Bakrie Goup and Rothschild joining forces for Vallar to take a 25 percent stake in coal miner Bumi Resources and a 75 percent stake in Berau Coal Energy. 

Bumi Plc has since said it aims to increase its stake in miner Bumi Resources, Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, to up to 50 percent. 

It will also own a 75 percent stake in Bumi Resources Minerals after completion of a shake-up announced last week. BRM's main asset is an 18 percent economic interest in Newmont Nusa Tenggara, the company that owns the Batu Hijau mine.

Rothschild, who will be co-chairman of Bumi alongside Indra Bakrie, will own 5.6 percent of Bumi voting capital after the listing. James Campbell, former director of Anglo American and co-founder of Vallar, will have 0.2 percent.

Local private equity tycoon Rosan Roeslani will own 17.4 percent and is joined on the register by Abu Dhabi Investment Council, which will own a 5.5 percent stake.
Indra Bakrie is the younger brother of tycoon Aburizal Bakrie, chairman of Golkar, part of Indonesia's ruling coalition.

Aburizal Bakrie is not involved in the day-to-day running of the family's financial ventures, which were pulled out from under heavy debts by the Rothschild deal.
The Bakrie family's voting rights will be frozen at 29.9 percent, despite a total holding of 55 percent. Source: Reuters

Bumi Resources sees Q2 coal sale price up 26 pct y/y

Bumi Resources , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, said on Tuesday that its average coal sales price in the second quarter could reach $90 per tonne, or 26 percent higher than the same period a year ago.

This would be nearly 3 percent higher than first quarter prices.

Dileep Srivastava, a Bumi director, told Reuters that the company will sell around 15 to 15.5 million tonnes of coal in the second quarter despite continuing wet weather in Indonesia's Kalimantan. Source: Reuters

Anglo American Settles Coking Coal Contracts With Mills in Asia, UBS Says

Asian steelmakers agreed to pay Anglo American Plc (AAL) $315 a metric ton for hard coking coal in the September quarter after first rejecting the offer as too high, according to UBS AG. 

“This sudden deal reflects new concern over supply,” UBS analysts led by Sydney-based Tom Price said in a note yesterday, citing strike action at mines operated by BHP Billiton Mitsubishi Alliance. UBS didn’t say where it got the information. Jacqui Strambi, a spokeswoman for Anglo, didn’t immediately return a voicemail left at her office. 

Steelmaking-coal prices rose 47 percent to a record $330 a ton for three-month contracts starting April 1 after heavy rain and flooding in Australia shut mines and curbed output from the world’s biggest exporter of the commodity. Rio Tinto Group, Xstrata Plc and BHP Billiton Ltd. (BHP) were among companies that notified customers they would miss deliveries after the floods. 

Stoppages at BHP’s mines in Queensland took place across three days, commencing at the Saraji and Norwich Park mines on June 14, then the Gregory, Crinum and Blackwater mines on June 15 and the Goonyella Riverside and Peak Downs mines June 18. 

Australia is the biggest shipper of coking coal and the second-largest exporter of thermal coal for power stations, after Indonesia. Source: Bloomberg

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 20 Juni 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Senin 20 Juni 2011.
Kode saham                        Volume                     Jual                     Beli
AALI 449.500 2.000 377.000
ADMG 17.598.500 10.000 60.000
ADRO 15.524.500 5.387.500 9.856.000
AISA 5.684.500 0 118.000
AKRA 7.100.000 29.500 3.075.000
ANTM 16.947.500 3.822.000 7.099.500
ARNA 428.500 0 200.000
ASGR 649.500 0 65.500
BBCA 9.347.000 4.158.000 5.808.500
BBKP 9.822.000 313.000 3.731.000
BBLD 395.000 0 125.000
BBRI 16.074.500 2.446.500 3.891.000
BBTN 3.369.500 75.500 2.201.500
BHIT 80.022.500 16.740.500 20.549.000
BJBR 10.064.000 355.500 5.174.500
BMRI 15.724.500 5.739.500 11.395.500
BMTR 3.957.500 35.500 2.057.500
BNBR 218.127.000 0 3.813.000
BNII 1.388.000 113.500 510.000
BORN 32.764.500 13.187.500 3.939.000
BRAU 9.632.000 0 3.568.500
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StanChart and Bank Mega considers bid for Bank Muamalat- sources

* StanChart continuing with due diligence - source

* Qatart Islamic Bank, Bank Mega among second-round bidders - sources 

Standard Chartered Plc is planning to bid for a controlling stake in Indonesia's PT Bank Muamalat alone as StanChart's affiliate has dropped out of the race, sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters on Monday. 

Qatar Islamic Bank and Bank Mega TBK were among suitors that submitted second-round bids ahead of last week's deadline, sources added. 

Standard Chartered's decision to pursue a nearly $300 million deal by itself underscores its desire to capture a bigger share of the Islamic banking business in the world's most populous Muslim nation. Indonesia, Southeast Asia's biggest economy, is a huge and untapped market for Islamic banking, which local and international investors are trying to capture. 

Bank Danamon , controlled by Singapore state investor Temasek , and TPG-backed Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional also plan to expand their sharia business. 

However, some bankers were surprised by Standard Chartered's decision to make a move on its own since the emerging market focused lender already has a presence in sharia banking through its affiliate PT Bank Permata. 

It was unclear if Standard Chartered will merge Muamalat with Permata's existing sharia banking, if it wins the auction. 

Top shareholders of PT Bank Muamalat, Indonesia's second-biggest sharia lender, were planning to sell an at least 51 percent stake in the unlisted bank for about $300 million, sources previously told Reuters. Morgan Stanley is running the auction. 

Standard Chartered was continuing with due diligence and was likely to submit a bid soon, one of the sources said. PT Bank Permata, 45 percent owned by Standard Chartered, and Bank Mandiri had decided not to proceed with bidding, sources with direct knowledge told Reuters. 

Standard Chartered and Indonesia's Para Group, which owns Bank Mega, declined to comment. A QIB executive declined to comment. Morgan Stanley was not available for comment. 

Muamalat, which has about 21.4 trillion rupiah ($2.5 billion) in total assets, could be valued between $750 million and $1 billion, one source previously told Reuters. A deal is likely to settle at three to four times its book value of $250 million, the source added. 

Muamalat's top three shareholders trying to sell the stake are -- Islamic Development Bank, Boubyan Bank Kuwait , and Saudi Arabia's Atwill Holdings Ltd. These shareholders collectively control 75.7 percent of the lender, according to its website. 

QIB was seen as the front-runner to win the auction, but Standard Chartered's entry into the race could change that. Some Middle Eastern banks have expanded into Indonesia to grow their Islamic banking. Last year, Qatar National Bank bought an 82 percent stake in small local lender Bank Kesawan for $82 million. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 21 Juni 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 21 Juni 2011.
BUY: (BUMI, BBRI, ASII, PGAS)

  • Walaupun IHSG terkoreksi kembali akibat efek regional, namun masih bisa bertahan diatas  low minggu lalu (3.710) sehingga terlihat ada upaya perlawanan terhadap down-trend menjadi keadaan sideways dengan potensi upward retracement 

  • IHSG close (20-06) 3.729.30(+6.82/+0.19%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

  • Support: 3.710-3.650, Resistance: 3,830-3.890

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY) (Target Rp 6.450) (Close 20/06 Rp 6.250)

  • Walaupun sempat terkoreksi, namun pattern higher low dari bulan Mei masih tetap utuh dan penutupan di atas low Jumat lalu (Rp 6.150) menandakan bahwa kenaikan akan terjadi untuk menguji resistance atas di upper end triangle symetris (Rp 6.450)

  • Entry (1) Rp 6.250, Entry (2) Rp 6.100, Cut loss point: Rp 5.800

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 59.700) (Close 20/06 Rp 58.300)

  • Pasca 3 minggu tutup berturut-turut di closing negative pada penutupan Jumat (weekly) minggu lalu akhirnya ASII dapat tutup weekly (Jumat closing) positif sehingga pattern high low masih utuh.

  • Bila ASII dapat mempertahankan daerah di atas Rp 57.500 maka scenario retracement ke resistance atas di Rp 59.100-59.700 masih memungkinkan.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 58.150, Entry (2) Rp 57.500, Cut loss point: Rp 57.100

 

3.   Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.150) (Close 20/06 Rp 2.175)

  • Koreksi akibat penundaan release laporan keuangan Q1 2011 kelihatannya sudah berlebihan (koreksi selama sepekan lebih dari 10%) sehingga potensi upward retracement untuk menguji resistance atas kemungkinan besar akan terjadi sebelum downside dapat terlaksana kembali.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 2.975, Entry (2) Rp 2.875, Cut loss point: Rp 2.775

 

4.       Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.150) (Close 20/06 Rp 4.000)

  • Saham defensive ini mulai menunjukan tanda tanda melawan downtrend IHSG dengan pattern higher low sejak bulan Maret masih utuh, dan sekarang tinggal menunggu kenaikan untuk membentuk high lagi di atas Rp 4.000.

  • Entry: (1) Rp 3.975, Entry (2) Rp 3.825, Cut loss point: Rp 3.750

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 21 Juni 2011

Berikut rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Selasa, 21 Juni 2011.
1. E-Trading Securities
Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG naik 6,8 poin (0,18%) ke level 3.729. Investor asing melakukan net buying Rp 69 miliar. Secara teknikal, IHSG berhasil ditutup positif dengan candlestick yang kembali membentuk pola spinning top. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan melemah pada range 3.685–3.759. Perhatikan TLKM, GGRM, dan MYOR. 

2. Trimegah Securities
Dibutuhkan dukungan sentimen positif untuk membawa IHSG keluar dari area negatif dengan basis support 3.720 di zona oversold. Bargain hunting pada beberapa saham unggulan seperti ASII, BBRI, BMRI diharapkan mampu mendorong IHSG bergerak positif di area 3.720 - 3.800. 

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas
Pada perdagangan Selasa (21/6), secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.710-3.760. Pergerakan indeks masih akan diwarnai sentimen eksternal serta pergerakan bursa regional. Cermati ICBP, INDF, TLKM, KLBF.