UPDATE 1-Wal-Mart in talks on partnership with Indonesia's Matahari-sources

* Partnership could involve taking stake - sources

* Partner may face tight retail margins - analyst

 

Wal-Mart Stores Inc (WMT.N) is in talks to become a partner of Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima (MPPA.JK) to develop its hypermarts, though South Korea's Lotte Shopping Co Ltd (023530.KS) has pulled out, sources said on Tuesday.

International retailers are jockeying for position in emerging markets as they look for sources of growth outside maturing U.S. and European markets, although the cost of competing is often too much to justify widespread expansion.

Lippo Group, an Indonesian conglomerate which controls Matahari via PT Multipolar (MLPL.JK), last month scrapped plans to sell its Hypermart chain because of low offers and instead opted to seek a global partner to expand.

"Lotte is out due to disagreement over pricing and branding," said one of the four sources with direct knowledge of the deal, who declined to be identified because the details were not public.

"However, Wal-Mart is still in talks with the group on the possible partner deal."

Wal-Mart and Lotte had both been interested in buying the Hypermarket assets, along with French retailer Casino Guichard Perrachon SA (CASP.PA) and private equity group Carlyle Group CYL.UL, in a sale that Lippo had hoped would raise over $1 billion.

The partnership could still involve taking a significant stake in Matahari to gain control over the hypermarket assets, the sources said.

Wal-Mart, the world's biggest retailer, has a significant investment in China including 104 hypermarkts, and in India it has a joint venture with Bharti Enterprises, while Casino just bought Carrefour's (CARR.PA) Thai assets for $1.2 billion.

Lotte already has a significant presence in Indonesia with its Lottemart chain and is currently the fourth biggest hypermart player in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.
Indonesia has been an hot investment destination in the past two years, with its stock market surging 46 percent last year. Growing domestic consumption, together with public spending and investment, led fourth quarter 2010 GDP to rise 6.9 percent.

However, Ari Pitoyo, senior retail analyst at PT Mandiri Sekuritas in Jakarta, warned that firms looking for a slice of Indonesia's consumer sector could face tight profit margins.
"Indonesia's retail business is very tight in margins because it doesn't have bargaining power with food producers like Indofood and Unilever," Pitoyo said.

"Whoever comes in as a Matahari partner has to be very efficient, including in logistics, to reap the benefit, or will have to face some losses."

Multipolar, which owns a 48 percent stake in Matahari, appointed Bank Of America Merrill Lynch (BAC.N) to become its strategic advisor to seek a global partner for Matahari.
Hypermart is Indonesia's second-biggest hypermarket chain after PT Carrefour Indonesia, with 52 outlets in the world's fourth most populous nation, generating annual revenue of $1 billion. It told Reuters last month it is eyeing the top spot and aims to expand aggressively across the archipelago. Source: Reuters

Wal-Mart in Partner Talks With Indonesia Retailer, Reuters Says

Wal-Mart Stores Inc. is in talks to partner with Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Putra Prima, Reuters reported, citing unidentified people with knowledge of the deal.

Wal-Mart is in discussions to develop Matahari’s hypermarkets, Reuters reported. Hypermarkets are large-format outlets that combine features of supermarkets with those of department stores.

Lotte Shopping Co., South Korea’s biggest retailer, has withdrawn from discussions for a deal with Matahari, according to Reuters. Matahari last month said it will seek a “global partner” to develop its Hypermart business.

Wal-Mart, the world’s biggest listed company, won’t comment on rumors or speculation, Anthony Rose, a Hong Kong-based vice president for corporate affairs, said in an e-mailed reply to questions. Officials of both Lotte Shopping and parent Lotte Group were unavailable for comment after office hours in Seoul. Source: Bloomberg

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 9 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 9 Februari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Selasa (8/2), IHSG ditutup turun 27 poin (-0,80%) ke level 3.459,93, setelah sempat naik pada awal sesi perdagangan. Asing melakukan net buying Rp 80 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dimasuki adalah perbankan dan barang konsumsi. Kemarin, indeks masih terlihat bergerak mixed dan berada pada fase konsolidasi. Ini terlihat dari pattern sideways yang dibuat oleh chart IHSG. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.433-3.533. Amati AALI, ASII dan BMRI.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG masih konsolidasi setelah gagal menembus resitance pada perdagangan kemarin. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan masih cenderung tertekan dan bergerak di kisaran 3.410-3.500. PGAS dan INDF menjadi saham pilihan kami.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Sejumlah saham sektor barang konsumsi, manufaktur, aneka industri menyeret indeks hingga melemah 27,7 poin menjadi 3.459,93. Gangguan keamanan di Temanggung, Jawa Tengah, juga menjadi penyebab merosotnya indeks. Meski begitu, broker asing melakukan beli bersih Rp 219 miliar. Secara teknikal, indikator demand index bergerak turun di area negatif, sementara indikator long term moving average menunjukkan bear alert/bullish. Sedangkan indikator weekly MACD underperform dari neutral.

Seiring dengan itu, indeks hari ini diperkirakan melemah pada kisaran 3.434-3.476. Hold INDF dan JSMR. Sell ANTM, BUMI, ITMG, PGAS, dan UNSP.

MARKET SIGNALS-Valuations, inflation to weigh on Indonesia stocks

A potent combination of steep valuations and growing inflationary pressures have slammed Indonesian stocks this year, and are likely to keep the market a laggard in 2011 after two years of stellar gains.

Indonesian shares, especially in the financial sector, remain rich when looking at forward price-to-earnings, price-to-book and earnings revisions compared with other regional markets.

At record highs reached in early January, the Jakarta Composite had nearly doubled since the end of 2008 as investors flocked to the country's strong consumer-driven and resource-rich economy.

Since peaking on Jan. 6, Indonesian stocks have lost about 8 percent and have been among the hardest hit, along with India and the Philipines, as mounting price pressures and doubts about the inflation-fighting credibility of some central banks have spurred a shift into major equity markets.

Investors will probably need valuations to drop back near long-term averages and some reassurances on the inflation front before shifting more funds back to Asia's market darling of the past two years.

Indonesia's central bank surprised markets on Friday with its first interest rate rise since 2008 and most economists see three more modest increases by year-end as it tries to contain price pressures.


FINANCIAL SECTOR STILL VULNERABLE
For a chart comparing Asian country financial sector price-to-book ratios relative to their weighting in overall country indexes: link.reuters.com/xav77r
 
Indonesia's financials, the second-largest sector by market cap on Jakarta's main board, have been a popular play on the country's domestic consumption. Foreigners tend to like the depth of the sector, as well as its direct exposure to Bank Indonesia's policies last year to spur lending.

That trade looks squeezed dry. Looking at the five biggest financial sector stocks by market cap in emerging Asian countries, Indonesia sticks out as being expensive and highly concentrated.

Indonesia tied with India for the highest price-to-book ratio at 3.4 times.
Moreover, the country's top five banking stocks make up 12.1 percent of the entire sector, second only to Malaysia, Thomson Reuters Starmine data showed.

Bank Central Asia , the country's largest lender by value, is trading at a 66 percent premium to domestic peers on a price-to-book basis. The bank has been underperforming the broader market after Bank Indonesia had reluctantly to raise policy rates on Friday.
Foreign institutional investors often stick with the most liquid stocks, especially in relatively small markets such as Indonesia. So profit-taking or a rotation out of financials by these players will continue to have a pronounced impact on the entire sector.

LOSS OF MOMENTUM

For a chart comparing Indonesia's forward earnings revisions with China and India: link.reuters.com/put67r

Even before rising food and fuel prices made investors focus squarely on inflation risks, Indonesia had the second-highest consumer inflation rate in Asia Pacific ex-Japan behind India. 

Throughout the bull run that began around April 2009, price pressures were not an issue because Indonesia's expected earnings growth was relatively high. 

Indonesia had a clear advantage of earnings momentum a year ago over the two other emerging Asian markets where inflation concerns are the most acute, India and China. That momentum in forecast earnings fizzled near the end of 2010. 

The tables have turned, and revisions to forecast earnings for Indonesia are now running behind China and India, according to data from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. 

EXPENSIVE RELATIVE TO SOUTHEAST ASIA

For charts comparing Southeast Asia equity valuations: link.reuters.com/zav77r

Last year, buying into Indonesia's equity market was a no brainer for an investor who wanted exposure to Southeast Asia, a part of the region that led stock market returns. Indonesia had momentum and cache as the next up and coming emerging market, heralded as the next BRIC and poised to gain investment grade status. 

At this point, Indonesia may still be too rich relative to other regional markets, even though earnings forecasts have been coming down. 

The MSCI Indonesia index on a dollar basis is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings multiple that is 35 percent higher than its long-term average, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S data showed -- far higher than Thailand (15 percent), the Philippines (8 percent) and Malaysia (7 percent). 

For foreign investors to get excited about the next BRIC again, earnings momentum may have to accelerate or share prices may need to come down further.

Source: Reuters

Target Price Hexindo Adiperkasa set to IDR 9,500/share by OSK

PT Hexindo Adiperkasa (HEXA IJ), an Indonesian heavy equipment producer, rose 2.2 percent to 6,850 rupiah. The stock was rated new “buy” at OSK Research Sdn, which cited robust heavy equipment demand amid “strong commodity prices.” 

The share-price estimate was set at 9,500 rupiah, Arief Budiman, a Jakarta-based analyst at OSK Research, said in a note today.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 8 Februari 2011

Untuk Selasa, 8 Februari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan empat saham pilihannya, yakni Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM), Timah (TINS), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY: TLKM, TINS, PTBA, ASII

* Walaupun didera profit taking akibat koreksi di Hang Seng, IHSG masih bisa menutup di atas garis down-trendline 3.475 sehingga kemungkinan proses trend reversal masih berjalan

* Secara teknikal dan kinerja fundamental emiten, index Dow Jones masih akan bermain di atas level psikologis 12.000 sehingga positif untuk menunjang tren IHSG melaju di atas 3.530

* IHSG close (07-02) 3.487.71 (-8.46/-0.24%) (Val.Rp.2.6T)

* Support: 3.475-3.392, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

Stock picks:

1. Telekomunikasi Indonesia (TLKM): (BUY) (Target: Rp 7.900-8.100) (close 01/07 Rp 7.700)

* Selain valuasi yang murah (2011 PER 13x), bertahannya TLKM di atas level psikologis Rp 7.500 untuk lebih dari 2 pekan menandakan bahwa proses trend reversal jangka pendek ke daerah di atas level psikologis selanjutnya (Rp 8.000) sedang berlangsung sehingga rekomen akumulasi.

* Entry: (1) Rp 7.650, Entry (2) Rp 7.550, Cut loss point: Rp 7.450

2. Bukit Asam (PTBA (BUY): (Target: Rp 21.500) (Close 01/07 Rp 20.150)

* Emiten tersebut cukup tertahan dalam koreksi di sektor pertambangan batubara pada Seni ini sehingga potensi untuk ada technical rebound dengan upside panjang ke atas lebih memungkinkan daripada emiten lainnya yang sudah tertekan terlalu dalam.

* Beberapa katalis seperti proyek rel kereta api dua jalur yang diperkirakan rampung sebagian pada 2012 sehingga produksi bisa naik 2 kali lipat, dan kenaikan harga jual batubara akibat kenaikan ASP (average selling price) masih berjalan.

* Entry (1) Rp 20.100, (2) Rp 19.700, Cut loss point: Rp 19.300

3. Tambang Timah (TINS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.100) (Close 07/02 Rp 2.925)

* Penutupan di atas down-trend-line Rp 2.700 yang terjadi minggu lalu menandakan bahwa tren turun jangka pendek dari September 2010 (Sejak di atas level Rp 3.100) mulai ada tanda-tanda perbalikan untuk positive trend reversal sehingga rekomen akumulasi.

* Bila kenaikan masih berlanjut di atas Rp 2.950 berarti pergerakan harga akan melaju jauh di atas level psikologis Rp 3.000

* Entry: (1) Rp 2.825, Entry: (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600

4. Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 51.500) (Close 07/02 Rp 49.500)

* Rekomen akumulasi karena secara valuasi ASII masih menarik, PER 2010 di 15x, dan PER 11F di 13x, dengan riset fundamental 12-bulan target fundamental analis berkisar antara Rp 53.000 dan Rp 80.000 (HD)

* Penjualan mobil pada Januari yang naik 30% versus periode sama tahun lalu dan 11% versus sebulan sebelumnya pada Desember menunjukan bahwa ketakutan masyarakat akan imbas pajak kepemilikan mobil progressive ke volume penjualan mobil tidak terbukti

* Entry: (1) Rp 49.200, Entry (2) Rp 48.500, Cut loss point: Rp 47.700

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 8 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 8 Februari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan kemarin, IHSG bergerak mixed dan ditutup turun 8 poin (-0,25%) ke level 3.487,70. Nilai transaksi mencapai Rp 3,4 triliun, lebih rendah dibandingkan dengan rata-rata transaksi beberapa hari sebelumnya. Asing tercatat melakukan net selling sebesar Rp 93 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dilepas adalah mining dan cement. Secara teknikal, indeks kemarin sudah menembus garis middle bond-nya, sehingga masih berada pada fase konsolidasi. Pada perdagangan Selasa (8/2), kami perkirakan indeks akan bergerak di kisaran 3.442-3.548. Cermati BBRI, BBCA dan PTPP.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Secara teknikal, indeks hari ini diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan melemah pada kisaran 3.468-3.514. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain UNTR dan BDMN

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Indeks kemarin melemah dipicu rotasi dari saham sektor komoditas ke sektor aneka industri di tengah-tengah penurunan harga minyak mentah. Broker asing menbukukan net selling Rp 80 miliar. Indikator klinger oscillator bergerak naik di area negatif, indikator daily MACD bergerak naik di area negatif dan indikator stochastic bergerak naik di area normal (72).

Hari ini indeks diperkirakan berfluktuasi melemah pada kisaran 3.463-3.501. Buy ASII, BMDN, hold TINS, UNTR, dan sell ADRO, BYAN,, BBRI, INDY, LSIP, SGRO, SMCB.

2011, Wika Incar Laba Bersih Rp 350 Miliar

PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (Wika) menargetkan laba bersih pada 2011 sebesar Rp 350 miliar, melonjak 29,62% dibanding laba (unaudited) 2010 yang dipekirakan mencapai Rp 270 miliar.
"Peningkatan laba didorong melonjaknya perolehan kontrak yang diperoleh perseroan," kata Direktur Utama Wika Bintang Perbowo, di sela Rapat Dengar Pendapat dengan Komisi VI DPR-RI, di Gedung MPR/DPR, Jakarta, Senin (7/2).

Menurut Bintang, pada 2011, perseroan menargetkan kontrak sebesar Rp 25,67 triliun, naik dari tahun 2010 sekitar Rp 24 triliun. Pada saat sama, penjualan pada Rencana Kerja Anggaran Perusahaan (RKAP) 2011 diperkirakan mencapai Rp 9,44 triliun.

Bintang menuturkan, perseroan saat ini sedang gencar melakukan ekspansi pada proyek konstruksi atau pembangunan Engineering, Procurement and Construction (EPC), meliputi pengerjaan pembangkit, konstruksi perusahaan minyak dan gas.

Sektor konstruksi yang terdiri atas general construction, building construction, mechanical/ electrical, dan energy masih memberi kontribusi yang dominan. "Akan tetapi pengerjaan yang lama berupa pembangunan jalan, gedung, airport, pelabuhan juga tetap dikembangkan," ujar dia.

Pada 2011, perseroan menganggarkan belanja modal (capex) sebesar Rp 522 miliar, lebih tinggi dibanding capex 2010 sebesar Rp 460 miliar. Bintang menambahkan, belanja modal 2011 akan dialokasikan untuk pengembangan usaha sebesar Rp 308 miliar, penyertaan Rp 202 miliar, dan untuk investasi aktiva tetap Rp 22 miliar.

Adapun belanja operasional yang akan dibelanjakan perusahaan mencapai Rp203 miliar dari sebelumnya Rp203 miliar.

Semen Gresik aims to produce 30 mln T/yr cement by 2015

Semen Gresik , Indonesia's largest cement maker by output, aims to boost cement production to 30 million tonnes per year by 2015, from 20 million tonnes currently, president director Dwi Sutjipto said on Monday.

The firm plans to build two factories, on Sumatra and Java islands, costing roughly $350 million each, to achieve the target, he told reporters. Source: Reuters

Tin price hits another fresh high at US$31,049 per tonne

KUALA LUMPUR: The Kuala Lumpur Tin Market (KLTM) hit another fresh high of US$31,049 per tonne today, following strong demand for the metal, mainly from Europe, dealers said.

The tin price on the KLTM surged US$999 from last Wednesday's closing of US$30,050 per tonne.

They said the gain was also in line with the firmer London Metal Exchange (LME) price of tin which rose US$1,090 to US$31,250 a tonne last Friday,sparking buying interest on the local market.

The KLTM was closed for the Chinese New Year celebration last Thursday and Friday.

At the opening level buyers bid for 190 tonnes while sellers offered 30 tonnes.

Turnover was unchanged at 75 tonnes with the participation of Japanese, European and local traders.

Meanwhile, the price differential between the KLTM and LME, narrowed to a premium of US$215 a tonne, against US$310 a tonne previously. Source: the Star online

UPDATE 1-Indonesia's Timah says refined tin production dips, profit up

* Tin prices to peak in 2014, says Timah president

* Timah declines to give forecasts for 2011

* 1.2 trillion rupiah investment scheme for 2011

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Monday that refined tin production fell 10 percent last year, although profits more than doubled due to soaring global prices. 

The miner's refined tin production in 2010 was 40,413 tonnes, down from 45,086 tonnes in 2009. It posted 802.4 billion rupiah ($89.2 million) in 2010 net profit, more than double its 313.8 billion rupiah ($34.9 million) the previous year. 

"The higher net profit was due to higher tin prices," Timah President-Director Wachid Usman told reporters. The firm declined to give production forecasts for 2011. 

Timah in December forecast 2010 production at 40,000 tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 45,000-50,000 tonnes after heavy rains hampered mining.

Its refined tin sales in 2010 fell 18 percent to 40,302 tonnes, down from sales of 49,240 tonnes of refined tin in 2009. 

The miner also said it expects a 2011 net profit of around 1 trillion rupiah ($111.2 million).

Tin prices have tracked copper to fresh record highs this month, supported by supply shortages from top producer Indonesia. 

On Friday, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange closed up $655 at $31,200, off an earlier record peak of $31,300.

"The higher tin prices have enticed other miners to come out and start to mine more tin," said an analyst on Timah, who declined to be identified as his firm had not authorised him to speak to the media. "Secondly the weather last year has been playing havoc with the mining. 

"Timah's production will probably stay around the level it is," he added. "Timah are looking for the higher premium material ... They aren't focused on spitting out as much tin as possible." 

Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, will limit annual output to a maximum of 100,000 tonnes if record high prices set off a scramble for the metal, a senior mining official said late last month.

"The price is expected to continue increasing this year and will reach its peak by 2014," Usman added. Timah sees 2011 tin prices to be between $25,000-$30,000 a tonne.

A Reuters survey published late in January showed analysts expecting a deficit of 15,000 tonnes in the tin market this year. 

The average of 24 forecasts showed the cash tin price would average $27,000 a tonne this year, and rise to $27,419 next year.

Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, produced an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010.

Tin consultants ITRI last month estimated 2010 global tin consumption at 360,300 tonnes, up 12.5 percent. 

Demand for the metal, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders, is seen rising in the coming years, while analysts have for months forecast that Indonesian output will fail to keep pace due to a lack of investment in mining. 

In addition, a crackdown on illegal mining since 2006, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rainy weather have all hindered production in Indonesia.

Usman said the company expected to spend 1.2 trillion rupiah ($133,444,537.114) in investment in 2011. 

"They will need to invest more to secure their raw material supplies -- dredges will be the natural choice," the analyst said. "In the total amount that needs to be spent, it's very low." ($1=8,992.500 Indonesian rupiah). Source: Reuters

Wilmar to invest $900 mln in palm oil product plants in Indonesia

Singapore's Wilmar , the world's largest listed palm oil firm, will invest $900 million to build factories producing products from palm oil in Indonesia, an Indonesian government minister said on Monday.

"Wilmar will build six factories of CPO end products such as soap and margarine. The company will start to build in the first quarter this year,' said Minister of Industry M.S Hidayat. Source: Reuters

Indonesia Economy Grows at Fastest Pace in Six Years

Indonesia’s economy grew at the fastest pace in six years last quarter, extending an expansion that may prompt the central bank to raise interest rates further after its first increase since 2008 to curb price pressures.

 

Gross domestic product rose 6.9 percent in the three months through December from a year earlier, compared with 5.82 percent previously reported for the third quarter, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in Jakarta today. That was higher than the 6.3 percent median estimate of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. GDP increased 6.1 percent in 2010.

Indonesia joins counterparts from China to Singapore in reporting accelerating growth in the fourth quarter as Asia weathers risks including elevated U.S. unemployment and strives to restrain inflation. Economists from UBS AG and Royal Bank of Canada are among those predicting the nation’s borrowing costs will rise to 8 percent this year, following a quarter percentage-point increase to 6.75 percent last week.

“Inflation clearly outweighs growth risks,” Chua Hak Bin, a Singapore-based economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said before the report. “Indonesia’s strong export growth is being supported by surging commodity prices, including on oil and coal prices. We expect growth to remain resilient.”

Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark reference rate on Feb. 4 from a record low. It had previously resisted higher rates to avoid attracting more foreign capital inflows, while opting to increase lenders’ reserve requirements and tightening rules on banks’ foreign-exchange holdings to help curb price gains.

Inflation Risk

The Jakarta Composite Index fell 0.4 percent as of 11:13 a.m. local time. It had slid 8 percent as of Feb. 3 from its Dec. 9 record high on concern the central bank has fallen behind regional peers in boosting rates to cool inflation. The rupiah strengthened for a fifth day to 8,973 per dollar.

Consumer confidence rose in January from December, with a central bank index climbing 4.6 points to 113.9, the highest level since August 2009. Indonesians were more optimistic on the outlook for income, the economy and employment than any time since September 2009, a separate index measuring expectations showed.

The nation’s growth has made companies more confident about raising prices as commodity costs increase. PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur boosted the price of its instant noodles by 100 rupiah a pack last month.

Growth Objective

President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono seeks to expand the economy at an annual average rate of 6.6 percent and create 10.7 million jobs by the end of his second term in 2014, including through attempts to boost investment in the country’s infrastructure. Foreign and domestic investment in Indonesia totaled 208.5 trillion rupiah ($23 billion) in 2010, Investment Coordinating Board Chairman Gita Wirjawan said Jan. 23.

Indian and Indonesian companies last month signed accords worth about $15 billion to build airports, steel plants, a railway line and ports in the Southeast Asian nation. Indonesia will seek bids for 50 new oil and gas blocks in 2011 through tenders and direct offers to help boost output, the Energy and Minerals Resources Ministry said last year.

Moody’s Investors Service upgraded the credit rating of Southeast Asia’s largest economy on Jan. 17 to the highest level since the 1997 Asian financial crisis, citing the nation’s “economic resilience” and improving public debt position.

Indonesia is less dependent on exports compared with its neighbors, suggesting it may be more resilient to fluctuations in global business cycles. The International Monetary Fund predicts the economy will expand more than 6 percent this year.

Reducing Poverty

The government’s target to lift more people out of poverty in a country where the World Bank estimates 29 percent of the population earn less than $2 a day has boosted consumer spending and imports. The central bank had refrained from raising rates since 2008 to support the growth push.

Higher borrowing costs may help anchor inflation expectations and support the rupiah and longer-term bonds, according to Citigroup Inc. Consumer-price growth accelerated to a 21-month high of 7.02 percent in January, from 6.96 percent in December.

In a statement announcing its rate decision this month, Bank Indonesia said it will keep a “close watch on future inflation developments and strengthen the rupiah exchange-rate policy in line with measures to curb future inflationary pressures.”

The central bank expects inflation to be in the range of 4 percent to 6 percent this year and forecasts the economy will probably expand by 6 percent to 6.5 percent in 2011. Indonesia’s exports may rise 12 percent to $168 billion this year, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Hatta Rajasa said Jan. 3. Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia fourth-quarter GDP expands 6.9%

Indonesia's gross domestic product expanded a faster-than-expected 6.9% in the fourth quarter of 2010 from the year-earlier period, resulting in a full-year growth of 6.1%, according to reports. The quarterly expansion compares with an estimated increase of 6.3% in a survey compiled by FactSet Research. 

However, the Southeast Asian country's GDP contracted 1.4% in the quarter ended Dec. 31 as compared with the July-to-September period, although even that contraction was better than the 2.1% decline estimated in a Reuters poll. The stronger GDP data comes after Bank Indonesia raised its benchmark interest rates by 0.25 percentage point to 6.75% last week to cool inflationary pressures. Source: Marketwatch

Timah says refined tin sales drop 18 pct in 2010

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Monday that its refined tin sales in 2010 fell 18 percent to 40,302 tonnes.


Timah in December forecast 2010 production at 40,000 tonnes, down from an earlier projection of 45-50,000 tonnes after heavy rains hampered mining. It sold 49,240 tonnes of refined tin in 2009.

Tin prices have tracked copper to fresh record highs this month, supported by supply shortages from top producer Indonesia. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's Timah sees 2010 profit double on tin price surge

Indonesia's state-owned PT Timah , the world's largest integrated tin miner, said on Monday that it posted 802.4 billion rupiah in 2010 net profit, more than double its 313.8 billion rupiah profit the previous year as tin prices surged.


Tin prices have tracked copper to fresh record highs this month as supply shortages from top producer Indonesia have supported prices. Source: Reuters

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Kalbe Farma oleh NISP Sekuritas. Sepanjang 2010, Kalbe Farma membukukan pendapatan Rp 10,2 triliun, naik 12,2% dari tahun 2009. Sedangkan laba bersihnya melonjak 37,1% menjadi Rp 1,27 triliun.

Riset Kalbe Farma Oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Agung Podomoro oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas

Riset Agung Pomodoro oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas. Pada akhir 2010, perseroan memperoleh penjualan sekitar Rp 5 triliun atau Rp 5,26 triliun berdasarkan kalkulasi Indo Premier.

Target harga adalah Rp 480/saham.

Riset Agung Podomoro Oleh Indo Premier Sekuritas

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 7 Februari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Senin, 7 Februari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Jumat (4/2), IHSG ditutup naik 15 poin (0,44%) ke level 3.496,17. Transaksi masih relatif sepi, karena masih dalam suasana libur Imlek, yaitu hanya Rp 2,7 triliun. Indeks sempat turun pada sesi pertama, namun menguat pada sesi berikutnya dipicu kenaikan BI rate sebesar 25 bps menjadi 6,75%. Asing tercatat melakukan net selling Rp 61 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak keluar adalah banking, automotif, dan cement. Secara teknikal terlihat, indeks masih berada pada fase konsolidasi dan pada Senin (7/2) diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.441-3.536. Cermati AALI, PGAS dan INTP.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

IHSG bergerak konsolidasi menjelang pengumuman BI rate dan menguat setelah BI menaikkan BI rate menjadi 6,75%. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan masih akan menguji area resistance dengan bergerak di 3.470-3.550. TLKM dan PGAS menjadi saham pilihan kami.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan hari ini, indeks masih cenderung bergerak sideways dengan kecenderungan menguat. Indeks diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran 3.465-3.510. Naiknya BI rate ke level 6,75% direspons positif oleh pasar. Selain itu, indeks hari ini juga akan dipengaruhi oleh pergerakan bursa global. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan antara lain SMGR, TLKM, PGAS, BBNI.

4. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Indeks hari ini diprediksi berfluktuasi menguat dengan potensi profit taking pada kisaran 3.473-3.514. Buy BBNI, WIKA, hold BBCA, BBTN, ITMG, TLKM, dan jual AKRA dan SMCB.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 7 Februari 2011

HD Capital merekomendasikan beli terhadap empat saham pilihannya, yakni Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA), Adaro Energy (ADRO), dan PT Timah (TINS).

BUY: DOID,  PTBA, ADRO, TINS

• Penutupan IHSG di atas 3.475 secara mingguan di hari Jumat menandakan bahwa telah terjadi penembusan dari downtrend channel yang terlah terjadi sejak seminggu lebih dan sekarang pola arah pasar memasuki short-term up-trend menuju 3.600.

• Pasar melakukan "sell on rumor and buy on fact":  Setelah sebelumnya didera profit taking beberapa pekan lalu akibat ketakutan BI rate naik ke 6.75%, berita naiknya bunga terlihat sudah terdiskons di harga.

• Berubahnya iklim suku bunga membuat kita lebih fokus ke saham sektor komoditas terutama batubara

• IHSG close (04-02) 3.496.17 (+15.30/+0.44%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support: 3.475-3.390-3.300, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

 

Stock picks:

 

1.    Delta Dunia   (DOID): (BUY) (Target: Rp 1.430) (close 04/02 Rp 1.340)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti pembalikan arah yang diperkirakan terjadi tahun sehingga dapat membuka jalan untuk restrukturisasi utang dengan biaya bunga lebih rendah dan bertambahnya kontrak untuk penambangan batubara yang permintaan makin meninggi membuat saham ini bertahan di atas level support crucial di Rp 1.300.

• Kelihatannya sebuat upward retracement akan terjadi untuk DOID pasca konsolidasi yang terjadi selama sepekan ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 1.330, Entry (2) Rp 1.300, Cut loss point: Rp 1.270

 

2.   Adaro Energy  (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 02/02 Rp 2.450)

• Bila terjadi koreksi untuk menutup price gap bawah di Rp 2.400 rekomen akumulasi karena skenario untuk mencoba mengetes resistance berikutnya di down-trend-line Rp 2.550 masih berjalan.

• Secara fundamental fair value saham ini seharusnya berada di atas Rp 2.700 dengan PER 16x/PBV 3.7x 2011F.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.400, (2) Rp 2.300, Cut loss point: Rp 2.200

 

3.   PT  Bukit Asam  (PTBA) (BUY): (Target: Rp 21.500) (Close 04/02 Rp 20.300)

• Potensi kenaikan harga batubara dalam negeri terutama low calorie  akibat lambannya izin explorasi, proyek rel kereta api ganda yang diperkirakan  rampung di 2012, serta valuasi yang menjadi menarik pasca koreksi dari high Rp 25.000 yang tercetak beberapa bulan lalu merupakan katalis untuk akumulasi emiten batubara dengan ROE/NPM tertinggi setelah ITMG.

• Entry: (1) Rp 20.100, Entry: (2) Rp 19.700, Cut loss point: Rp 19.300

 

4.    Tambang Timah (TINS): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.975) (Close 04/02 Rp 2.850)

• Recovery industri elektronik dan mobil di Amerika serta bagian lainnya di dunia dapat meningkatkan permintaan untuk timah solder, dimana tahun ini para analis optimistis bahwa Tambang Timah akan memulai proses earnings recovery turnaround setelah sebelumnya kurang bersinar di 2010.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.800, Entry (2) Rp 2.700, Cut loss point: Rp 2.600

 

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)