Indonesia says to impose tin export royalty, ban ore shipment

* Every tin exporter expected to pay royalty charge

* Further Indonesian tin cutbacks supportive of long-term prices

* Indonesia seeks to add value to mineral wealth 

Indonesia, the world's top refined tin exporter, will impose a new "royalty" charge on all tin shipments and only allow the export of refined tin, a trade ministry official said on Friday, a move that is expected to lend support to weakening global prices. 

Southeast Asia's largest economy, which supplies about 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes last year, on expectations of improved weather conditions. 

"Every exporter will have to pay royalty before they can ship the metal," Deddy Saleh, director general of foreign trade at the trade ministry told reporters.

"We are preparing a new regulation on tin export as an amendment to the existing trade minister decree. It is almost final actually." 

Under the new rule, the government will not allow export of raw tin -- tin ore and concentrate -- and will only permit refined tin shipments, Saleh added. 

"Only tin which (has) its royalty paid by exporters can be shipped for export," Saleh said. This is seen to be consistent with the government's policy to stop non-value added raw material exports within the next three years. 

Trade ministry officials were unavailable to give further details on how the royalty payment will be calculated and paid.

At 0835 GMT, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange (LME) was at $24,050 a tonne, up from $23,605 at the close on Thursday. 

Tin, used in electronics, plating and lead-free solders, struck a record high above $33,000 in April. A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations, declining onshore 

reserves and rain that had hindered production in Indonesia have helped drive the tin rally earlier this year. 

CRACKDOWN

"We have seen Indonesian policy having a significant impact on tin in recent years, notably with the clampdown on 'illegal' tin mining constraining tin ore/concentrate shipments over the past year and a half, said David Wilson, analyst at Societe Generale in London. 

"Further cutbacks in ore/concentrate exports can only be supportive for prices, as it would impact on refined production levels." 

Earlier this week, the Indonesian Tin Industry Association told Reuters that an environmental crackdown in the main tin producing region of Bangka island, was hindering domestic smelters' supplies. 

Tight supplies and resilient demand will keep tin prices high this year, despite the impact of the earthquake on big consumer Japan, a Reuters survey of metals analysts showed in April. 

"It appears that Indonesia had, at least unofficially, modestly relaxed restrictions on tin mining and exports as tin prices moved to record highs," Wilson added. "Now that prices are at the year's lows, the announcement does appear to be well timed in terms of providing a floor to prices." 

"However, with the faltering demand growth outlook, due to slowing manufacturing growth in China, and significantly lower growth scenario for Europe and the U.S., we would still expect to see a relatively balanced market this year." 

An April poll forecast that the global tin market will remain in deficit this year, and is likely to narrow to 12,750 tonnes, the consensus of eight analysts showed, from a 15,000-tonne deficit predicted in a January poll. 

"The royalty... obviously will put upward pressure on international pricing, as Indonesia is such an important source of supply but how much pressure will depend on how big the royalty is," said analyst Stephen Briggs of BNP Paribas in London.

He added that the ban on exports of tin ore, is in line with their previously announced policy to halt exports of non-value added raw materials by 2014.

The Indonesian energy and minerals ministry has been drafting a regulation, part of a mining and coal law introduced in 2009, that would by 2014 require miners to process coal and minerals into higher value products before exporting them.

Like many other emerging and resource-rich nations, Indonesia is looking to boost revenue from the mining sector.

Tin is not the only LME metal to see problems in the archipelago of 17,000 islands, after the trade ministry said nickel exports fell almost 31 percent in the first half of the year, due to disputes at some shipping ports. Source: Reuters

Stop crackdown on small tin miners: Indonesia industry

Indonesian police carrying out an environmental crackdown in the main tin producing region of Bangka island, should stop targeting small-scale miners as it is hindering domestic smelters' supplies, the Indonesian Tin Industry Association said.

Small-scale traditional tin miners in Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, have slowed mining activity because they fear being raided by the police, who have been intensifying a crackdown on illegal miners for the past few months.

Small smelters in the island off Sumatra depend on traditional miners for between 70 and 80 percent of their ore supply.

"The police come and get the miners," said Johan Murod, general secretary at the association and director of Bangka-Belitung Timah Sejahtera, which groups five private tin smelters on Bangka island.

"It is because government regulation is not helping with the mining situation in Bangka island," he told Reuters this week.

The government brought in a new mining law in 2009 that restricts the operation of small-scale miners, who tend to operate in an undisciplined way, causing damage to the environment, and do not pay royalties.

A crackdown on illegal mining, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rain that had hindered production in Indonesia have helped drive the tin rally earlier this year.

"The government is not supporting the people for mining, they only support big companies," Murod added. "All mining causes environmental damage but after the mining, we (too) can make environmental improvements with the right regulation."

Bangka police follow up every complaint or report on illegal tin mining, which are made daily, and are committed to taking action against every mining violation, a spokesman said on Thursday.

Illegal small-scale miners who are caught by the police, are often not prosecuted, but instead shown mining areas that permit public mining, Bangka Belitung police spokesman Djoko Poernomo told Reuters.

"The police will continue to order prohibited activities or illegal activities which are against the law," he added. "This is not a seasonal action... many mining activities are being done at forbidden areas such as protected forest."

BANGKA OUTPUT TO SLIP
Earlier this week, Indonesia's trade ministry said the country's refined tin exports rose 4.5 percent in July from the same month last year but were down almost 15 percent from last month.

Tin output in Bangka island will be 70,000 tonnes this year, compared with 80,000 tonnes last year, Murod said, as weaker tin prices hit output.

At 1:59 a.m. EDT, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange was at $23,500 a tonne versus $22,745 at the close on Wednesday. Tin struck a record high above $33,000 in April.
"Right now the smelters are waiting and seeing and do not buy tin," said Murod, whose association was established in 2009. "Right now, people are not mining because nobody (smelters) buys the tin because the LME price drops.

"At the moment, the LME price is due to speculation and not the real price," added Murod, speaking from Bangka island.

Murod forecasts more tin to come onto the market toward the end of this month however, as suppliers cash in ahead of the Islamic festival of Eid al-Fitr at the end of August.
He said however, that small-scale tin miners could be forced to cease operations if prices fall below $20,900 a tonne.

Southeast Asia's largest economy expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes in 2010, on expectations of improved weather conditions.
Indonesia's dry season started in most areas around May-June, the Climatology, Meteorology, and Geophysics Agency has said. Source: Reuters

Laba Bersih Salim Ivomas Semester I 2011 Melonjak 114%

PT Salim Ivomas Pratama Tbk (SIMP) pada semester I-2011 berhasil meraih kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 113,8% dari Rp 414 miliar pada semester I-2010 menjadi Rp 885 miliar. Kenaikan ini berkat kontribusi penjualan yang meningkat sebesar 45,8% dari Rp 4,21 triliun menjadi Rp 6,13 triliun akibat kenaikan volume penjualan dan harga jual rata-rata produk minyak goreng dan lemak nabati serta kenaikan volume penjualan produk kelapa sawit.

Laba kotor perseroan tercatat naik 57,1% dari Rp 1,46 triliun menjadi Rp 2,29 triliun. Kondisi ini mendorong kenaikan laba usaha sebesar 81,9% dari Rp 901,9 miliar menjadi Rp 1,64 triliun. Marjin laba kotor dan marjin laba usaha masing-masing meningkat menjadi 37,5% dan 26,7%.

GMR Infrastructure's arm GMR Energy to acquire 30% stake in Indonesia's Sinar Mas Group company GEMS

GMR Energy, a subsidiary of GMR Infrastructure, has signed conditional sale and purchase agreement to (CSPA) 30 percent stake in PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk (GEMS), a Sinar Mas Group company in Indonesia and a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA). The deal is valued at US$ 450-550 million.

The stake buy will help GMR purchase coal over the next 25 years, with the annual off-take quantity steadily increasing to 10 million tonnes over the coming years. GEMS has reserves of over 860 million tonne and coal resources of 1.9 billion tonne, GMR said.

An off-take is an agreement between a producer of a resource and a buyer of a resource to purchase or sell portions of the producer's future production. It is negotiated prior to the construction of a facility, such as a mine, in order to secure a market for the future output of the facility

"It will provide fuel security for our power plants under construction and support further capacity addition and trading," BVN Rao, business chairman, GMR Energy, said as quoted by Economic Times, today.

The acquisition will be funded through a combination of debt and internal accruals made through an offshore special purpose vehicle (SPV) in Singapore. This transaction is subject to the fulfillment of several conditions and is expected to close in calendar 2011, the company said.

GMR plans to set up power plants generating 12,000 MW capacities in 5-6 years. Of this, 65% will be coal based. The Bangalore-based company will require 40 MT of the fuel for the same.

GMR Energy has 17 power plants of which four are operational and 13 are under various stages of implementation.

"The off take agreement will give GMR Energy access to the required quality of coal from one of the lowest cost producers in Indonesia," Raaj Kumar, CEO GMR Energy, said

GEMS, a subsidiary of PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), owns four producing and six non-producing thermal coal concessions in Indonesia. DSSA is focused on power & steam generation, coal mining, trading and telecommunication infrastructure development.

Over the past three to four years several Indian companies have been scouting for coal mines across Australia, Indonesia and Africa to ensure consistent supply of fuel for their energy businesses.

Competitor GVK Power and Infrastructure is also in talks to buy coal mines in Australia from Hancock in a deal estimated at A$8bn this September. Early this year, Lanco Infratech paid A$740 million to acquire Griffin coal assets in Australia.

Adani Enterprises too acquired coal assets from Linc Energy for A$2.72bn last August and JSW Steel invested $200 million to acquire nine coking coal mines in West Virginia, US. Over half of India's current power capacity estimated at 169,749 megawatts is generated through coal-based thermal power plants. India could face a coal shortage of almost 50m tonnes by the end of March 2011, according to Indian government data. Source: Economic Times

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 12 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011.

BUY:  PGAS, ASII, BBRI, ADRO

• Proses upward retracement IHSG dari keadaan jenuh jual (oversold) untuk menguji resistance atas di moving crossover dead cross average 5 dan 50 harian (3.920) sudah dimulai rekomen melirik emitten big cap yang masih mempunyai gap atas yang belum tertutup. 

• IHSG close (11-08) 3.840.141(-23.069/-0.60%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support: 3.730-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3.925-4.060

 

Stock picks:

1.     Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY) (Target Rp 3.575) (Close 11/08 Rp 3.350)

• Diperkirakan fair value fundamental saham ini seharusnya di atas Rp 3.300 dan secara technical memang ada price gap antara Rp 3.525-3.600 yang belum tertutup sehingga membuka potensi untuk kenaikan harga.

• Entry (1) Rp 3.350, Entry (2) Rp 3.250, Cut loss point: Rp 3.175.

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 69.500) (Close 11/08: Rp 67.000)

• Dilihat dari daily stochastic 5 harian yang sudah mulai berjalan menyebrang 50-line, momentum kenaikan sedang dibangun di ASII sehingga potensi untuk meneruskan perjalanan ke resistance price gap Rp 69.500

• Entry (1) Rp 67.150, Entry (2) Rp 66.000, Cut loss point: Rp 65.000.

 

3.    Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.950) (Close 11/08 Rp 6.450)

• Sektor perbankan memiliki kapitalisasi terbesar di IHSG (33%) sehingga bisa dipastikan akan memimpin momentum market dalam technical rebound.

• Outlook suku bunga dan kepercayaan konsumen masih optimis didukung oleh rupiah stabil dan tidak terpengaruhnya sector mikro UKM terhadap factor luar. 

• Entry: (1) Rp 6.350, Entry (2) Rp 6.250, Cut loss point: Rp 6.150

 

4.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 11/08 Rp 2.300).

• Sektor pertambangan batubara (coal) memiliki 20% dari kapitalisasi IHSG, dimana emiten dengan kapitalisasi terbesar adalah ADRO, yang secara teknikal memang berpeluang untuk menutup price gap atas di Rp 2.550 dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.250, Entry (2) Rp 2.200, Cut loss point: Rp 2.100

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas,12 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Jumat, 12 Agustus 2011.

1.E-Trading Securities

IHSG kemarin ditutup naik 5,7 poin (0,15%) ke level 3.869. Asing masik mencetak net selling, kali ini Rp 651 miliar. Secara teknikal, IHSG masih berpotensi menguat melihat indikator stochastic yang masih bergerak uptrend. Hari ini, indeks diprediksi bergerak pada range 3.828-3.906. Cermati GGRM , PTBA, dan DEWA.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Jumat (12/8), secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.817-3.893. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan untuk speculative buy adalah GGRM, UNVR, BSDE, CMNP.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Penguatan indeks kemarin terjadi di tengah-tengah penurunan bursa global akibat kekhawatiran penyebaran krisis utang Eropa. Secara teknikal, IHSG hari ini diperkirakan berfluktuasi pada kisaran 3.807-3.891. Buy BTEL, INDF, UNVR, hold BNBR, MEDC, TINS, dan sell BNGA.

4. Universal Broker Indonesia

IHSG hari ini diprediksi bergerak mixed. Investor diperkirakan masih wait and see dan menanti pergerakan Dow Jones. Jika Dow Jones mampu rebound dengan kembali ke level diatas 11.000, indeks akan bergerak di level resistance 3.870-3.875 dan support 3800. Investor asing kini dilanda kepanikan, sehingga terus membukukan net selling. Saham-saham blue chip yang bisa dikoleksi antara lain ASII, BMRI, BBRI, INDF. Sementara untuk lapis kedua, amati  MAPI, CPIN, GJTL.  

Indonesia's July tin exports rise 4.5 pct yr/yr

Indonesia's refined tin exports rose 4.5 percent in July from the same month last year but were down almost 15 percent from last month, an official at the trade ministry said on Tuesday. 

Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, shipped 9,265.72 tonnes of refined tin in July, compared with 8,869.51 tonnes in July last year, trade ministry data showed. In June, tin exports were 10,875.25 tonnes. 

Trade ministry data showed that Indonesia's tin exports from January until July this year were 59,430.23 tonnes. 

"Tin production is normal so far, however with prices dropping recently, output and export volume are automatically following the price trend," said Rudi Irawan, vice chairman at the Indonesian Tin Industry Association and director at independent smelter CV Stania Prima.

At 0506 GMT, benchmark tin on the London Metal Exchange was at $22,500 a tonne after falling by 7.6 percent on Monday, as investors dumped riskier assets in a global rout triggered by fears political leaders are failing to tackle debt crises in the United States and Europe.

Tin struck a record high above $33,000 in April. 

A crackdown on illegal mining on the main producing islands of Bangka and Belitung, tighter export rules, declining onshore reserves and rain that has hindered production in Indonesia helped drive the tin rally earlier this year. 

Indonesia expects to produce 90,000 tonnes of refined tin this year, up from 78,965 tonnes in 2010, on expectations of improved weather conditions.

Indonesia's dry season started in most areas around May-June, the Climatology, Meteorology, and Geophysics Agency has said. Source: Reuters

Indonesia's cement sales in July rise 17 pct y/y

Indonesia's cement sales, an indicator of economic growth in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, rose 17 percent in July from a year ago, data from the Indonesian Cement Association (ASI) showed on Thursday. 

Sales in July were above the association's expectation of a 6 percent rise, supported by demand for housing, offices and hotel construction by the private sector, Urip Trimuryono, chairman of the association. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 10 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 11 Agustus 2011.

BUY:  ASRI, ASII, CPIN, ADRO

• Bila terjadi koreksi kembali untuk menutup price gap bawah akibat kenaikan terlalu tajam kemarin bisa dijadikan momentum untuk akumulasi karena IHSG sudah masuk tahap konsolidasi untuk menahan downtrend lebih lanjut.

• IHSG close (10-08) 3.863.641(+128.460/+3.44%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support: 3.730-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3.925-4.060

Stock picks:

1.     Alam Sutera (ASRI) (BUY) (Target Rp 430) (Close 10/08 Rp 405)

• Outlook sektor property masih optimistis, rekomen mengambil posisi pada koreksi pullback untuk menutup gap bawah antara Rp 395-375.

• Entry (1) Rp 390, Entry (2) Rp 375, Cut loss point: Rp 365

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 69.500) (Close 10/08: Rp 67.850)

• Bila terjadi koreksi untuk kembali menutup price gap antara Rp 66.000-64.000 rekomen akumulasi untuk proses upward retracement.

• Entry (1) Rp 66.000, Entry (2) Rp 64.100, Cut loss point: Rp 62.550.

 

3.    Chaoren Pokphand (CPIN) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.800) (Close 10/08 Rp 2.575)

• Permintaan ayam  yang diperkirakan meningkat untuk sisa akhir tahun depan, cost import bahan makanan yang turun dari menguatnya kurs dan proses produksi integrated merupakan katalis positif untuk akumulasi pada pullback atau koreksi minor.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.475, Entry (2) Rp 2.300, Cut loss point: Rp 2.150

 

4.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 09/08 Rp 2.450).

• Sektor pertambangan batubara (coal) memiliki 20% dari kapitalisasi IHSG, dimana emiten dengan kapitalisasi terbesar adalah ADRO, yang secara teknikal memang berpeluang untuk menutup price gap atas di Rp 2.550 dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.350, Entry (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.175

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 11 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi beberapa sekuritas untuk perdagangan Kamis, 11 Agustus 2011. 

1. E-Trading Securities

IHSG kemarin ditutup naik 128,5 poin (3,44%) ke level 3.863.58 mengikuti kenaikan bursa global. Namun, asing masih membukukan net selling, kali ini Rp187 miliar. Secara teknikal, IHSG masih berpotensi melanjutkan penguatan, melihat candlestick yang membentuk pola bullish dan stochastic berpotensi membentuk golden cross. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada range 3.793-3.905 dengan kecenderungan menguat. Cermati UNTR, BSDE, dan KLBF.

2. Reliance Securities

Sentimen positif datang dari data surplus perdagangan Tiongkok yang semakin melebar dan keputusan The Fed mempertahankan suku bunga rendah hingga dua tahun ke depan. IHSG kembali bergerak pada tren bullish dengan batasan selanjutnya level  3.909. Potensi upside masih luas. IHSG saat ini bergerak menuju Wave B elliot pada 3.987. Stoploss berada di level 3774. Saham-saham yang masih menarik PGAS, BORN, ADRO dan KLBF.  

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani  

IHSG hari ini diperkirakan menguat pada kisaran 3.807-3.891. Short term MA bearish, sementara long term MA bullish. Namun, klinger oscillator underperform mendatar di area negatif, demikian dengan daily MACD. Buy ADRO, BYAN, hold AKRA, ASII, BBCA, BBRI, BDMN, dan sell TLKM.

4. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan Kamis (11/8), secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan menguat pada kisaran 3.850-3.940. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan ADRO, BMRI, ASII, UNTR

Bank Indonesia Will Use Dollars to Buy Government Bonds

Bank Indonesia will use dollars to buy rupiah government bonds in order to manage cash reserves and maintain the stability of the currency, it announced today. 

The central bank will buy the debt at special auctions, said Hendar, Bank Indonesia’s director of monetary policy, who goes by only one name. 

“We’ll hold auctions if the rupiah depreciates because of investors selling government bonds,” he said. “With this tool, the central bank can manage the volatility of the currency, and at the same time it will add to Bank Indonesia’s stock of government bonds.” 

Indonesia’s growth outlook and relatively high yields are luring funds from developed nations with near-zero interest rates, creating volatility in the rupiah. Another round of so- called quantitative easing, increasing the amount of U.S. funds available to be invested abroad, looks more likely after the Federal Reserve said yesterday it was prepared to employ additional tools to spur the world’s largest economy. 

The rupiah strengthened 0.6 percent to 8,533 per dollar as of 4:43 p.m. in Jakarta and has advanced 5.2 percent this year. Bank Indonesia left borrowing cost unchanged at 6.75 percent yesterday. It last raised its benchmark rate by 25 basis points, or 0.25 percentage point, in February. Consumer prices rose 4.61 percent in July from a year earlier, easing from a 5.54 percent gain in June. Source: Bloomberg

Good time now to buy Indonesian stocks: Schroders

An increasingly uncertain economic outlook in the United States and Europe will have relatively little effect on Indonesia's robust fundamentals, instead offering investors a good opportunity to buy equities in Southeast Asia's largest economy, a Schroders fund manager said.

Indonesia's main stock market index , Southeast Asia's best performing equity market, has gained around 4 percent this year.

In line with other volatile equity markets, however, Jakarta stocks fell more than 6 percent on Tuesday, as investors worried about the debt crises in the United States and Europe.

"The Indonesian economy should be relatively less impacted but the stock market should be very much correlated with the volatility of the global stock markets," Kiekie Boenawan, head of investment at Schroder Investment Management Indonesia (SIMI), said in an email late on Tuesday.

"It should present a good opportunity to accumulate Indonesian equities as fundamentals are not impacted as much -- relative to other developed economies."

Asian stocks clawed back some lost ground on Wednesday, following a rebound in U.S. shares, after the Federal Reserve made an unprecedented pledge to keep interest rates near zero for at least two years, stemming a global equity rout for the time being.

But economic growth in the archipelago of 17,000 islands is expected to be 6.6 percent this year, and growing slightly higher in 2012.

"The impact on the Indonesian economy will be relatively less due to Indonesia's low exposure to exports and also due to the low leverage of the economy," added Boenawan. "Most companies are experiencing net cash or very little debt.

"Assuming a 6 percent real growth and an average of 5 percent inflation, we could reasonably expect the stock market to deliver around 13 percent growth in return and dividends next year from this level."

TOP HOLDINGS The Jakarta-based fund company was established in 1991. At the end of July, SIMI had $6.9 billion under management, with around 75-80 percent invested in equities and the remaining in fixed income assets.

Investment decisions in each SIMI fund is based upon contributions and ideas from the investment team of analysts and portfolio managers.

Astra International , Indonesia's biggest listed firm and main vehicle distributor, Bank Mandiri and Bumi Resources are among the main holdings of its equity funds, according to data on its website.

Property stocks are a top pick for Schroders' Indonesian funds, due to the rising levels of middle-income earners and low interest rates, Boenawan said.

Indonesia's central bank held its benchmark overnight policy rate at 6.75 percent on Tuesday for a sixth straight month after July inflation slowed to a 14-month low.

"Property sectors have also been experiencing a surge in demand and prices mainly on the back of rising middle income affluence, low interest rate, and rising direct investments in Indonesia," Boenawan said.

Indonesia expanded at a robust 6.5 percent on year in the second quarter of 2011, at a time when the outlook for the global economy is increasingly uncertain.

"Despite the rising demand and prices in the real physical market, the prices of the property stocks have yet to fully reflect its fundamentals," he added.

Least favoured Indonesian equities for Schroders include telecommunication firms due to a crowded business space, and cement companies.

"For telecommunication, the industry is crowded and has been experiencing fierce price competition since the last 3 years," Boenawan said.

"For cements, although demand is quite robust especially given the rising property prices, the industry has not been able to raise prices further without inviting competition from imported clinkers." Source: Economic Times

Hankook in bidding for Indonesia’s P.T. Multistrada

Hankook Tire Co. Ltd., which recently broke ground on a $353 million tire plant in Indonesia, is among the bidders to buy Indonesia’s P.T. Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk., whose flag brands are Achilles, Corsa and Strada.

Hankook confirmed it’s involved in the bidding process for Bekasi, Indonesia-based P.T. Multistrada, which reported $220 million in sales in fiscal 2010 and $117 million through the first six months of 2011. The firm generates about three-fourths of its revenue from exports.

News reports from Indonesia also identify TPG Capital L.P.—which last year acquired Huntersville, N.C.-based American Tire Distributors Holdings Inc.—and Japan’s Yokohama Tire & Rubber Co. Ltd. as companies engaged in the bidding process.

P.T. Multistrada has operated under that name since 2004, when investors took over P.T. Oroban Perkasa and undertook a three-year, $100 million modernization of the plant in Bekasi. The firm lists annual capacities of 8.3 million consumer and 4.7 million motorcycle tires.

Multistrada also produces private label tires for a number of U.S. distributors.

Hankook did not comment on its reasons for bidding on Multistrada. The plant that Seoul, South Korea-based Hankook is building in Bekasi is designed to be an export base for the North America and Middle East markets, as well as a regional business hub for emerging Asian markets.

During the first phase of development, Hankook said it anticipates initial capacity of approximately 6 million tires per year, with more than half of that capacity dedicated to the U.S. market. Source: Tire Business

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, 9 Agustus 2011

Saham-saham yang dominan dibeli asing, Selasa 9 Agustus 2011.

Kode saham                       Volume                   Jual                      Beli

AALI	2,399,000	441,000	642,000
ABDA	790,000	0	250,000
ACES	89,000	10,500	89,000
ADMG	61,332,500	215,000	1,536,500
AISA	9,964,500	0	2,377,500
AKRA	36,511,000	2,342,500	4,398,500
AMAG	13,891,500	0	1,000,000
ASGR	13,247,000	30,000	951,000
BBKP	49,072,000	798,000	4,151,000
BBTN	16,877,000	143,000	3,593,000
BHIT	123,168,500	502,000	7,578,000
BKSL	393,797,000	1,372,000	23,250,000
BLTA	27,083,500	179,000	491,500
BMTR	10,518,000	367,000	5,342,500
BPFI	231,000	0	200,000
BRAU	17,102,000	0	6,516,500
BRMS	12,203,500	0	3,090,500
BUDI	7,033,000	0	3,573,000
BWPT	16,438,500	137,000	8,691,000
BYAN	155,500	76,500	153,000
CFIN	27,152,000	700,000	6,399,500
CPIN	71,861,500	4,735,000	6,587,000
DAVO	16,223,000	0	3,180,000
DEWA	620,481,500	2,582,500	11,188,000
EMDE	8,220,500	1,180,000	1,740,500
EMTK	165,000	0	157,500
ETWA	7,821,500	50,000	1,020,000
GZCO	1,638,500	0	1,011,500
IGAR	7,250,000	0	4,219,000
IMAS	3,528,500	675,500	1,615,000
INCO	15,544,500	3,585,500	6,643,000
INDY	12,712,500	2,250,500	2,542,500
JAWA	7,113,000	10,000	300,000
JPFA	5,528,000	66,000	357,500
JPRS	8,240,500	50,000	100,000
JSMR	15,548,000	826,500	977,500
JTPE	8,949,500	0	12,500
KIAS	2,871,500	0	17,500
KKGI	409,500	0	60,000
LPCK	61,011,500	488,000	506,500
LSIP	18,314,500	4,753,500	11,280,000
LTLS	1,828,000	0	633,000
MAIN	12,839,500	55,000	1,343,000
MDRN	403,000	182,000	348,500
MFIN	351,000	0	219,500
MICE	8,629,000	0	100,000
MITI	12,985,500	0	3,500,000
MLIA	208,000	0	124,500
MLPL	41,455,000	40,500	1,000,000
MNCN	13,115,000	1,095,500	3,730,000
MTLA	7,404,000	0	4,406,000
PGAS	131,774,500	17,221,500	19,573,000
PNIN	3,471,500	0	275,000
PNLF	17,335,500	1,280,000	4,450,000
PTPP	6,071,500	133,000	753,500
PWON	12,854,000	130,000	1,598,000
RDTX	96,500	0	96,500
ROTI	162,500	0	70,500
SCMA	295,500	50,500	257,500
SGRO	3,877,000	42,000	576,500
SIMP	49,004,500	9,090,000	11,394,000
SIPD	220,219,500	0	7,000,000
SMCB	7,321,000	598,000	1,226,000
SMRA	3,456,500	1,276,500	1,312,000
TBLA	41,327,500	14,000	541,500
TOTL	1,953,500	5,000	329,000
TRUB	204,185,000	0	500,000
TURI	6,795,500	0	1,628,000
UNSP	203,229,500	606,000	8,708,500
WICO	1,181,000	0	50,000
WIKA	5,397,000	544,000	933,500

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 10 Agustus 2011

Rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 10 Agustus 2011.

BUY:  PGAS, ASII, BBRI, ADRO

• Proses upward retracement IHSG dari keadaan jenuh jual (oversold) untuk menguji resistance atas di moving average 5 harian (3.960) sudah dimulai rekomen melirik emiten big cap yang masih mempunyai gap atas yang belum tertutup.

• IHSG close (09-08) 3.767.641(-82.768/-2.15%) (Val.Rp.3.6T)

• Support: 3.730-3.650-3.550, Resistance: 3.925-4.060

Stock picks:

1.     Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY) (Target Rp 3.550) (Close 09/08 Rp 3.225)

• Diperkirakan fair value fundamental saham in seharusnya di atas Rp 3.500 dan secara technical memang ada price gap antara Rp 3.525-3.600 yang belum tertutup sehingga membuka potensi untuk kenaikan harga.

• Entry (1) Rp 3.200, Entry (2) Rp 3.050, Cut loss point: Rp 2.975.

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp 69.500) (Close 09/08: Rp 64.100)

• Outlook penjualan mobil dan suku bunga yang masih kondusif membuat investor asing melirik saham dengan kapitalisasi terberar di IHSG yang masih belum menutup price gap atas di Rp 69.500 sehingga masih ada potensi upside.

• Entry (1) Rp 63.800, Entry (2) Rp 62.700, Cut loss point: Rp 61.550.

 

3.    Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.950) (Close 09/08 Rp 6.400)

• Sektor perbankan memiliki kapitalisasi terbesar di IHSG (33%) sehingga bisa dipastikan akan memimpin momentum market dalam technical rebound.

• Outlook suku bunga dan kepercayaan konsumen masih optimis didukung oleh rupiah stabil dan tidak terpengaruhnya sector mikro UKM terhadap faktor luar.

• Entry: (1) Rp 6.300, Entry (2) Rp 6.100, Cut loss point: Rp 5.900

 

4.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.550) (Close 09/08 Rp 2.250).

• Sektor pertambangan batubara (coal) memiliki 20% dari kapitalisasi IHSG, dimana emiten dengan kapitalisasi terbesar adalah ADRO, yang secara teknikal memang berpeluang untuk menutup price gap atas di Rp 2.550 dalam jangka waktu dekat ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.250, Entry (2) Rp 2.200, Cut loss point: Rp 2.100

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)