Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 5 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Selasa, 5 April 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin terpangkas 7 poin (-0,20%) ke level 3.700,05, seiring aksi profit taking investor lokal. Di sisi lain, asing membukukan net buying Rp 200 miliar. Secara teknikal, indeks diperkirakan berpotensi untuk bearish reversal. Ini terlihat dari Stochastic yang sudah bergerak downtrend di area overbought serta berpotensi untuk deathcross. Adapun RSI bergerak reversal di area overbought. Seiring dengan itu, indeks hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.65–3.734. Cermati INDY, UNTR, dan ADRO.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Secara teknikal, indeks pada perdagangan hari ini masih cenderung bergerak menguat pada kisaran 3.668-3.738. Namun, pergerakan indeks akan dibayangi profit taking serta pergerakan bursa regional. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan UNTR, ADRO, EXCL, MEDC.

3. Erdhika Sekuritas

Aksi profit taking memicu pelemahan indeks kemarin setelah beberapa hari meningkat. Sektor perkebunan dan aneka industri melemah 1,33% dan 1,64%. Untuk hari ini, indeks akan berada di level 3.678-3.726 dengan saham rekomendasi ADRO dan JSMR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 5 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 5 April 2011.

BUY: (BUMI, BMRI, DOID, BBCA)

• Pasca koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) di IHSG akan dilanjutkan dengan penyambungan kembali ke kondisi minor uptrend untuk menembus 3.750.

• IHSG close (04-04) 3.686.168(-21.601/-0.58%) (Val.Rp.3.4T)

• Support: 3.600-3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3,680-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (target: Rp 3.450) (close 04/04 Rp 3.250)

• Deleveraging (restrukturisasi dari aliansi dengan Vallar yang mendongkrak proyeksi laba akibat potensi pembayaran utang, laporan keuangan 2010 yang di atas ekspektasi serta optimisme terhadap Q1 2011 serta naiknya harga batubara New Castle selama 3 bulan terakhir di atas $130/ton memberikan katalis untuk mencoba akumulasi pasca koreksi dari keadaan jenuh beli.

• Entry (1) Rp 3.150, Entry (2) Rp 3.050, Cut loss point: Rp 2.950

 

2.    Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.200) (Close 04/04 Rp 6.850)

• Bila ada minor pullback untuk rectrace ke moving average 5-hari (Rp 6.650) untuk mengambil nafas rekomen akumulasi karena minor uptrend masih berjalan.

• Dana Rp 13 triliun pasca rights issue yang dapat  digunakan untuk ekspansi dan mendongkrak pertumbuhan laba di 2011 merupakan salah satu selling point bank ini.

• Entry (1) Rp 6.650, Entry (2) Rp 6.450, Cut loss point: Rp 6.300

 

3.   Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.250) (Close 04/04 Rp 1.160)

• Walaupun sebelumnya pasar pernah kecewa atas kinerja laba DOID tahun lalu, namun untuk 2011 beberapa katalis sepertu re-financing utang dengan bunga yang lebih rendah dan berbagai aksi korporasi dan akitivitas pertambangan menjadi katalis untuk mendorong DOID diatas resistance moving average 50-hari (Rp 1.200)

• Rasio profitabilitas tertinggi di antara emiten BUMI (ROE 50%, NPM 48%) membuatnya menarik dengan valuasi PER 2011F (11x).

• Entry: (1) Rp 1.150, Entry (2) Rp 1.130, Cut loss point: Rp 1.100

 

4.  Bank BCA (BBCA) (BUY) (Target: Rp 7.300) (close 04/04 Rp 6.950)

• Loan asset quality yang terbaik di Indonesia, struktur fee based dan biaya kredit murah, rasio profitabiltas Net profit Margin tertinggi di sektor perbankan (34%) membuat BBCA pantas mendapatkan valuasi premium termahal di sektornya.

• Koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli ke Rp 6.900-Rp 6.700 dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi untuk mengikuti percobaan berikutnya mengejar target Rp 7.200.

• Entry (1) Rp 6.900, Entry (2) Rp 6.700, Cut loss point: Rp 6.650

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Malaysia's YTL Power to bid for $3 bln Java power project-paper

Malaysia's YTL Power will bid for a $3 billion coal-fired power plant in Indonesia's Central Java in partnership with a consortium of Japanese companies, business daily Malaysian Reserve reported on Monday, citing unnamed sources.

The report said the 20-80 partnership, with the Japanese partners holding the larger chunk, would likely submit tender documents within a month.

Equity funding for the 2,000 megawatt plant was expected to be in the region of $500 million, the paper said. It did not disclose the identities of the Japanese participants.

YTL Power presently owns a 35 percent stake in Indonesia's PT Jawa Power, which owns a 1,220 MW coal-fired power plant located East Java. It also owns PowerSeraya, a Singapore-based power generating firm.
YTL Power was not immediately available for comment. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 4 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 4 April 2011.

BUY:  GGRM, ASII, INDF, ADRO

• Bila terjadi koreksi akibat keadaan jenih beli di IHSG pasca rally di atas 3.700 (high selama 3 bulan terakhir) rekomen akumulasi karena keadaan tren sudah berubah dari trend samping (konsolidasi) ke minor uptrending.

• IHSG close (01-04) 3.707.11 (+28.81/+0.78%) (Val.Rp.2.9T)

• Support: 3.630-3.550-3.450, Resistance: 3.750-3.800-3.850

Stock picks:

1.   Gudang Garam (GGRM): (BUY) (Target: Rp 43.200) (close 01/04 Rp 40.950)

• Emiten dalam sector consumer non-durable seperti Gudang Garam sangat cocok dengan tema domestic demand terutama karena permintaan terhadap rokok merupakan inelastic terhadap kenaikan harga (inflasi).

• Entry: (1) Rp 40.500, Entry (2) Rp 39.500, Cut loss point: Rp 38.500

2.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target:Rp 59.200) (Close 01/04 Rp 57.900)

• Data inflasi bulan Maret yang sesuai ekspektasi membuat BI menahan suku bunga di level yang sama untuk meeting mendatang, sehingga hal ini kondusif untuk permintaan kredit dan tren penjualan mobil.

• Entry: (1) Rp 57.500, Entry (2) 56.500, Cut loss point: Rp 55.500

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.550) (Close 01/04 Rp 5.350)

• Minor pullback akibat keadaan overbought memberikan kesempatan untuk mengambil posisi di emiten consumer sector yang menjadi leader dalam komponen IHSG didorong oleh Rupiah yang kuat, inflasi terkendali serta daya beli masyarakat meningkat.

• Entry: (1) Rp 5.300, Entry: (2) Rp 5.200, Cut loss point: Rp 5.100

4.    Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 01/04 Rp 2.375)

• Hasil kinerja laporan keuangan Q1 2011 dan downgrade fundamental (proyeksi laba) sudah tercermin dari koreksi sebelumnya.

• Pada faktanya pasar lebih melihat ke kinerja kedepan persero yang akan diuntungkan dari tingginya harga batubara versus performa historis yang menurun dari target produksi yang meleset.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.325, Entry (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.175

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 4 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Senin, 4 April 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) pada Jumat (1/4) mampu menembus 3.700 atau tepatnya 3.707,49, naik 28 poin (0,78%) dibanding hari sebelumnya. Deflasi yang terjadi pada Maret dan net buying asing Rp 588 miliar menjadi motor penggerak indeks. Secara teknikal, indikator Stochastic masih bergerak uptrend di area overbought, sementara MACD histogram bergerak naik di area positif. Namun, perlu diwaspadai mengingat candlestick telah keluar dari garis upper Bollinger Band . Sejalan dengan itu, indeks hari ini diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.743–3.650. Cermati ITMG, ASII, dan SMGR.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas

Deflasi pada Maret memberi angin segar bagi indeks saham domestik. Namun, secara teknikal, indeks rawan aksi profit taking, terlihat dari indikator RSI yang mulai mendekati area jenuh beli. Hari ini, indeks diprediksi bergerak pada kisaran 3.670-3.730. Buy on weakness SMCB dan hold BBCA.

3. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Sebanyak empat indikator teknikal bergerak naik. Contohnya, indikator weekly MACD yang terlihat positif dari netral. Sedangkan indikator long term dan short term Moving Average menunjukkan awal tren bullish. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan berfluktuasi melemah pada kisaran 3.678-3.727.

Indonesia rubber exports to Japan seen falling -official

Indonesian rubber exports to Japan are expected to drop significantly in coming months as the earthquake and tsunami there last month affected the country's auto industry, a trade ministry official said on Friday.

The Indonesian Rubber Association said last week it had not heard of any cancellations or postponements of deliveries to Japan, which accounts for 7 percent of global demand for natural rubber.

But Deddy Saleh, director general of foreign trade at the trade ministry, said rubber consumption may drop significantly in the Japanese tyre production industries from April onwards, due to damage caused by the quake and the lack of power supply in the world's third largest economy.

Indonesian natural rubber exports to Japan in March were 31,930 tonnes, up from 28,650 tonnes in February, according to the Indonesian Statistics Agency.

Indonesia, the world's second-largest rubber producer, produced about 2.8 million tonnes of rubber in 2010.
Global demand for rubber, both natural and synthetic, is forecast to rise to 26.1 million tonnes in 2011 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2010, the International Rubber Study Group said earlier this month.

Deddy added that the Indonesian automotive industry, which has close ties with Japanese firms that make the major brands sold in Southeast Asia's biggest economy, may also experience a lack of automotive parts.

"According to our estimation, the local automotive industry is going to have a shortage of automotive components due to their stocks only being enough for two or three months," he said. "Two or three months after the disaster there could be a problem." Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 1 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 1 April 2011.

BUY: (BUMI, UNTR, PGAS, BBCA)

• Tren positif IHSG masih berjalan setidaknya untuk mencoba mengetes resistance di 3.700 sebelum ada pullback akibat koreksi jenuh beli terjadi

• IHSG close (31-03) 3.664(+22.669/+0.63%) (Val.Rp.5.4T) 

• Support: 3.600-3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3,680-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (target: Rp 3.475) (close 31/03 Rp 3.325)

• Deleveraging (restrukturisasi dari aliansi dengan Vallar yang mendongkrak proyeksi laba akibat potensi pembayaran utang, laporan keuangan 2010 yang di atas ekspektasi serta optimisme terhadap Q1 2011 serta naiknya harga batubara New Castle selama 3 bulan terakhir diatas $130/ton memberikan kontribusi untuk mendongkrak BUMI dari pola kons.

• Entry (1) Rp 3.250, Entry (2) Rp 3.175, Cut loss point: Rp 3.075

 

2.    United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 22.250) (Close 30/03 Rp 21.050)

• Secara technical menarik, ada pattern single candle (bullish hammer) & volume besar pasca koreksi yang diakibatkan oleh panic selling dari isu rights issue di Rp 15.000 yang juga membuka peluang untuk quick trading opportunity ke resistance moving average dead cross di Rp 22.400.

• Entry (1) Rp 21.100, Entry (2) Rp 20.200, Cut loss point: Rp 19.800

 

3.   Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.050) (Close 31/03 Rp 3.875)

• Tema "permintaan domestic" untuk kebutuhan energi dalam negeri menjadi katalis pendorong PGAS meneruskan positive minor uptrend ini pasca penutupan diatas MA-50 hari ini (Rp 3.875).

• Rasio profitabilitas tertinggi di antara emiten BUMI (ROE 50%, NPM 48%) membuatnya menarik dengan valuasi PER 2011F (11x).

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.850, Entry (2) Rp 3.750, Cut loss point: Rp 3.650

 

4.  Bank BCA (BBCA) (BUY) (Target: Rp 7.200) (close 31/03 Rp 6.950)

• Loan asset quality yang terbaik di Indonesia, struktur fee based dan biaya kredit murah, rasio profitabiltas Net profit Margin tertinggi di sektor perbankan (34%) membuat BBCA pantas mendapatkan valuasi premium termahal di sektornya.

• Entry (1) Rp 6.900, Entry (2) Rp 6.700, Cut loss point: Rp 6.650

 

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 1 April 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Jumat, 1 April 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

Kemarin, IHSG naik 37 poin (1,04%) ke level 3.678,67 dengan volume transaksi sebesar 8,8 juta lot dan nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 7,3 triliun. Asing melakukan net buy sebesar Rp 903 miliar dengan saham-saham yang paling banyak dibeli antara lain BMRI, BBRI, BBNI, CPIN, dan PGAS. Kenaikan IHSG kemarin dipimpin oleh sektor perbankan, dipicu oleh keluarnya sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten yang direspon positif oleh investor. Pada perdagangan hari ini, IHSG diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.608-3.710 dengan saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan antara lain BJBR, BMRI, dan TLKM.

2. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Pada perdagangan hari ini, secara teknikal indeks masih cenderung bergerak menguat pada kisaran 3.662-3.695. Pergerakan indeks akan dipengaruhi oleh pengumuman inflasi untuk bulan Maret. Selain itu, investor patut mewaspadai kemungkinan adanya profit taking. Saham-saham yang dapat diperhatikan ASII, PGAS, BSDE, dan BDMN.

Perusahaan Gas Negara Q4 net profit down 15 pct

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) , Indonesia's biggest gas distributor, said its fourth quarter net profit fell 15 percent, as a shortage gas supplies affected its earnings.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 1.55 trillion rupiah ($178 million) compared with 1.83 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results.

PGN, which said that it revenues will remain flat this year due to limited fresh gas supplies, reported a flat full year 2010 net profit of 6.24 trillion rupiah.

That compared with analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit to rise 6 percent to 6.58 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates.
PGN shares rose 0.7 percent on Thursday after the results, but have fallen 13 percent this year. Its shares rose 13 percent in 2010, underperforming the 46 percent rally in the Jakarta index. Source: Reuters 

United Tractors to raise $700mln via rights issue this yr

* To issue 403.26 million of new shares

* To offer at 15,050 rph per share, or 44.5 pct discount from Wednesday closing

* Says will use 90 pct of funds for expansion

Indonesia's United Tractors plans to raise 6.1 trillion rupiah ($699.62 million) via a rights issue this year to fund its expansion plans, the country's biggest heavy equipment provider said in a statement on Thursday. 

The firm, controlled by Indonesia's largest listed firm Astra International , will offer 403.26 million of new shares with the price offering at 15,050 rupiah per share, or representing a 44.5 percent discount to Wednesday's closing price. 

The last day of the offering has been set for May 30. 

United Tractors said it plans to use most of the funds to finance the expansion of its coal mining and coal contractor business as well as power plant opportunities. ($1 = 8719.000 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Garuda Plans to Buy 18 Sub-100 Seat Planes to Expand Routes

PT Garuda Indonesia, the flag carrier that raised $530 million in a January initial public offering, may buy 18 planes with fewer than 100 seats to expand services to areas without airports for larger aircraft.

Garuda plans to buy the planes by 2015 with delivery starting next year, Elisa Lumbantoruan, the airline’s finance director, said in Jakarta today. A request for proposals will be issued next month and announcement on the tender is expected in June, he said, without naming prospective suppliers.

“We want to be able to land on shorter runways,” Lumbantoruan said at a press briefing. “We want to fly tourists to regions around Bali.”

Garuda, which today reported net income fell 48 percent in 2010, intends to use the smaller planes to access more domestic routes among Indonesia’s 17,000 islands that span 3,200 miles (5,150 kilometers), the distance from Florida to Alaska. The carrier wants to “bypass” larger airports in Jakarta, Surabaya and Bali’s Denpasar by offering direct flights among smaller regional airports, Lumbantoruan said.

Capital Spending

Garuda, which raised $4.8 trillion rupiah in an initial public offering in January, plans $250 million in capital spending this year, as much as $130 million of which will go to purchasing new planes, Chief Executive Officer Emirsyah Satar said. The company also plans to add routes this year to Taipei and member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, he said.

The carrier also plans to lease six Airbus 320-200s for its Citilink service this year. The mainline carrier will add two A330-200s and nine Boeing Co. 737-800 NG in the year, Lumbantoruan said.

Garuda has pared flights to Tokyo as concerns about radiation leaks at a tsunami-stricken nuclear-power plant north of the capital and electricity shortages damp travel demand. The carrier will combine two separate services to the Japanese capital from Jakarta and Denpasar into one flight starting April 5 until April 22, Lumbantoruan said.

Garuda dropped 3.6 percent to 530 rupiah as of the 4 p.m. close of Jakarta trading.

Net income fell to 515.5 billion rupiah ($59 million) from 1 trillion rupiah last year as operating costs increased, outstripping a 9 percent gain in revenue to 19.5 trillion rupiah.

Fuel costs will probably rise again this year, Satar said. Source: Bloomberg

Bank Rakyat Indonesia Q4 net profit jumps

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Indonesia's second-biggest lender by assets, fourth quarter of 2010 net profit rose 139 percent, driven by strong loan growth, a bank's statement obtained by Reuters showed.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 4.81 trillion rupiah ($551 million), compared with 2.01 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results.

State-owned Bank Rakyat, which aims to slash its dividend payout ratio to only 5 percent from 30 percent, reported a full-year 2010 net profit of 11.47 trillion rupiah. That compared with a net profit of 7.31 trillion rupiah a year before.

Analysts had forecast full-year 2010 net profit up 24 percent to 9.04 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate.

Bank Rakyat, which specializes in microlending to farmers and small businesses in Southeast Asia's largest economy, saw 2010 full-year net interest income up 43 percent to 32.89 trillion rupiah, from 23.05 trillion rupiah a year earlier.

The lender's shares rose 0.9 percent on Wednesday ahead of the result, and have gained 2.9 percent this year to outperform the Jakarta index's .JKSE 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8722.500 Indonesian Rupiahs). Source: Reuters

Telkom Q4 net profit rises 24 pct

* Q4 net profit at 2.6 trln rph vs 2.1 trln rph yr ago

* FY 2010 net profit up 1.2 percent to 11.53 trln rph

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom) , Indonesia's biggest telecommunications firm, reported fourth quarter net profit rose 24 percent as its data and internet businesses boosted revenue to make up for low growth in mobile subscriptions. 

Telkom's mobile unit Telkomsel, 35 percent owned by SingTel , expects mobile subscriber growth at up to 13 percent in 2011, after subscriber revenue only grew 2 percent in 2010.

The firm's fourth quarter 2010 net profit was 2.6 trillion rupiah ($298 million), compared with 2.1 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results. 

State-controlled Telkom reported full year 2010 net profit of 11.53 trillion rupiah. That compared with a net profit of 11.4 trillion rupiah a year before, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 of 11.58 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate. 

Telkom, which has set aside 2 trillion rupiah for a share buyback programme, saw 2010 revenue up 1.4 percent to 68.63 trillion rupiah. 

Telkom has said it is re-evaluating a fixed-wireless deal with PT Bakrie Telecom worth nearly $1 billion as it wants a majority stake. Bakrie Telecom's parent Bakrie & Bros told Reuters this week it was frustated with the slow pace of the deal and could speak to other suitors. 

Telkom is still in talks to acquire a majority stake in Cambodia's largest mobile operator CamGSM in a deal that could be worth more than $500 million, though the firm said last year it expected the deal to be completed by the first quarter. 

The planned deal would be Telkom's first major purchase overseas, and would signal further consolidation as fast-growing Southeast Asian mobile markets mature. 

The firm's shares rose 0.7 percent by 0337 GMT on Thursday after the result, but have fallen 8.8 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index's 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8719 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Bumi Q4 profit beats forecasts, rivals

* Q4 net profit at $115.58 mln vs Q4 '09 loss of $169.77 mln

 * 2010 net up 63 pct to $311.18 mln, vs $270 mln consensus

 * Profits seen doubling in 2011 on lower debt cost-CLSA

Indonesia's Bumi Resources  , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, on Thursday

posted fourth quarter net profit of $115.58 million, a turnaround after a net loss a year earlier as sales climbed.      

Bumi's positive result stood out among other local coal miners that saw earnings plunge after heavy rainfall hurt production, including No.2 miner Adaro Energy that saw a 43 percent slide in quarterly net profit.

         

"Further upside to earnings and our forecast will come from repayment of the first tranche of CIC debt in August, which stands to save $100 million in annual interest payments," said Nick Cashmore of CLSA, in a note to clients after the result.      

Bumi, which sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after Japan's recent earthquake and tsunami, posted fourth quarter net profit of $115.58 million, compared with a loss of $169.77 million in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on published full-year and nine month

results showed.      

         

The jump from a year ago came after Bumi was hit in the fourth quarter 2009 by high charges for mine stripping. Investors were also concerned last year about debt levels and the risk of higher taxes, after authorities alleged Bumi and its two coal units, Kaltim Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia, owed about 2.1 trillion rupiah ($232 million) in tax. 

Bumi won a Supreme Court ruling in May that rejected an appeal for a continued investigation by tax authorities.

Its full year 2010 net profit was $311.18 million. That compared with a net profit of $190.45 million in the year-ago period, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 of $269.8 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus

estimates.   

CLSA forecasts earnings to more than double in 2011 to $705 million.       

 Bumi, which already controls 10 percent of the global thermal coal market, aims to be China's largest supplier of coal for power plants. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal.

         

Bumi saw $4.37 billion in revenues last year, or a 19 percent increase versus $3.66 billion in 2009. Bumi, with a market capitalisation of $7.8 billion, is

controlled by the politically-connected Bakrie Group, which joined forces with the Rothschild banking dynasty in November for Vallar to get a 25 percent stake in Bumi. The Bakrie Group will own 43 percent in the combined London-listed company, which will be renamed Bumi Plc.       

The Bakrie family's holding investment firm Bakrie & Brothers told Reuters this week that Vallar/Bumi Plc plans to increase its stake in Bumi Resources up to 51 percent before June.

         

Bumi shares ended steady at 3,350 rupiah after the results, having gained 10.7 percent this year to outperform a little changed Jakarta index. Bumi's stock underperformed in 2010 when the index rallied 46 percent. ($1 = 8722.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters        

Bumi 2010 Profit Climbs to $311 Million, Beating Estimates

PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal producer by volume, said net income jumped 63 percent last year, beating analyst estimates, as prices of the fuel increased. 

Profit climbed to $311 million from $191 million, the Jakarta-based company said in a statement published today in Suara Pembaruan newspaper. Revenue rose to $4.4 billion from $3.7 billion. That compares with a mean estimate of $276 million in profit and $4.1 billion in revenue from a Bloomberg News survey of 17 analysts. 

Coal producers in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest exporter of the fuel, are benefiting from gains in prices and demand after floods in Australia, the largest shipper, disrupted output. The Indonesian coal reference price rose 18 percent to $103.41 a metric ton in December compared with February 2010, when the government started the benchmark index. 

The unit of PT Bakrie & Brothers sold a “little over” 60 million tons of coal last year at an average $70 a ton compared with 58 million tons at $63 a ton in 2009, Director Dileep Srivastava said Jan. 21. Bumi expects sales and prices to increase by at least 10 percent this year, assuming reasonable weather conditions, he said then. 

Analysts expect Bumi, which has a market value of 69.6 trillion rupiah ($8 billion), to report $515 million in profit and $5.3 billion in sales this year. 

Bumi was unchanged at 3,350 rupiah at the 4 p.m. close in Jakarta trading. The stock has risen 11 percent this year compared with the 0.7 percent drop in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index. (JCI). Source: Bloomberg

Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy Q4 net profit falls 43 pct

Adaro Energy , Indonesia's No.2 coal miner, on Wednesday said its fourth quarter 2010 net profit fell 43 percent after heavy rainfall hurt production and as costs rose. 

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 0.5 trillion rupiah ($57.3 million), compared with 0.87 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on published full-year and nine month results showed. 

Unprecedented heavy rainfall affected operations last year but the firm sees a better performance ahead as the outlook for coal remains robust, said Garibaldi Thohir, Adaro's chief executive officer, in a statement. 

Adaro, which has a market capitalisation of $8.4 billion, posted full year 2010 net profit of 2.2 trillion rupiah. 

That compared with a net profit of 4.4 trillion rupiah in the year-ago period, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit of 2.6 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate. 

The coal miner's finance costs climbed 14 percent on interest expenses for its $800 million bonds issued in 2009. The firm's net debt nearly doubled to 8.9 trillion rupiah in 2010 from 4.48 trillion rupiah in 2009. 

Adaro shares fell 2.2 percent on Wednesday to 2,225 rupiah before the results, and have fallen 12.7 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index's 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8722.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 31 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 31 Maret 2011.

BUY: (PTBA, ASII, BJBR, INDF)

• Penutupan IHSG diatas resistance kunci 3.600 (50-days moving average) memberikan konfirmasi bahwa minor uptrend menuju 3.700 sudah mulai berjalan

• IHSG close (30-03) 3.634(+27.664/+2.83%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.600-3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3,680-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bukit Asam (PTBA): (BUY) (target: Rp.22.650) (close 30/03 Rp.21.400)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti upside adjustment ASP (average selling price) thermal coal yang proyeksi laba naik hingga 30-50%, masih berjalan sesuai scenario di Q1 2011, dimana PTBA memiliki kandungan 85% thermal coal yang spot sudah berada diatas $130/ton.

• Entry (1) Rp.21.300, Entry (2) Rp.20.850, Cut loss point: Rp.20.400

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp.58.350) (Close 30/03 Rp.56.500)

• Penjualan mobil tidak akan turun signifikan selama suku bunga masih kondisif untuk permintaan kredit mobil.

• Walaupun penjualan Februari sedikit melemah namun pada bulan Januari dimana harga mobil dinaikan sebesar 3% dan pajak progressif diberlakukan, penjualan justru naik.

• Pasca penutupan gap Rp.56.500-55.900 yang disebabkan oleh panic selling akibat downgrade fundamental, ASII siap mengetes resistance high di Rp.57.900-59.200.

• Entry (1) Rp.55.800, Entry (2) Rp.55.200, Cut loss point: Rp.54.050 

 

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp.5.450) (Close 30/03 Rp.5.300)

• Berhasilnya persero mempunyai margin stabil walaupun harga gandum naik (bahan baku mie) dan diversifikasi ke unit CPO dan gula untuk mengambil keuntungan dari harga komoditas membuat INDF menjadi perusahaan yang sangat efficient.

• Valuasi PER 2011 (12x) 2010 (15x) masih dirasa murah untuk big cap index driver ini dengan ROE diatas 25%

• Entry: (1) Rp.5.250, Entry (2) Rp.5.150, Cut loss point: Rp.5.050

 

4.  Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR) (BUY) (Target: Rp.1.310) (close 30/03 Rp.1.230)

• Pasca konsolidasi ke ma-crossover buy point dan konfirmasi buy dari stochastic dan macd harian, uptrend di emitten bank daerah dengan customer base pegawai sipil di Jawa Barat bersiko rendah untuk kredit macet (NPL dibawah 2%) ini siap berjalan.

• Proyeksi pertumbuhan laba sebesar 33% untuk 2011 masih optimis dapat tercapai.

• Entry (1) Rp.1.230, Entry (2) Rp.1.190, Cut loss point: Rp.1.150

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Bank BJB Bagikan Dividen 65% dari Laba Bersih 2010

PT Bank BJB Tbk (BJBR) akan membagikan dividen sebesar 65% dari perolehan laba bersih 2010. Total dividen yang dibagikan sebesar Rp 578,61 miliar lebih atau setara dengan Rp 59,67/saham.

Adapun jadwal pembayaran dividen sebagai berikut:
Cum dividen di pasar regular dan negosiasi                       19 April 2011
Ex dividen di pasar regular dan negosiasi                          20 April 2011
Cum dividen di pasar tunai                                              25 April 2011
Ex dividen di pasar tunai                                                 26 April 2011
Recording date yang berhak atas dividen                          25 April 2011
Tanggal pembayaran dividen                                            9 Mei 2011
Tanggal pendistribusian bukti potong pajak                        23 Mei 2011

Multistrada Tunjuk HSBC Kaji Pengembangan Usaha

Manajemen PT Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk (MASA), produsen ban nasional ketiga terbesar menunjuk Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC) sebagai penasihat keuangan (financial advisor) selama 12 bulan. Mandat kepada HSBC dilakukan manajemen MASA pada 29 Maret 2011.

Direktur MASA Y Ade Bunian Moniaga mengatakan, penunjukkan HSBC bertujuan untuk memperoleh tinjauan strategis secara keseluruhan atas pengembangan usaha perseroan, sehingga manajemen MASA dapat mengambil langkah-langkah strategis yang tepat di bidang keuangan dan dapat meningkatkan nilai tambah bagi perusahaan dan pemegang saham.

Moody's Review Davomas' Rating to Upgrade

Moody's Investors Service has today placed PT Davomas Abadi Tbk's (Davomas) Caa3 corporate family rating on review for possible upgrade. "The potential acquisition of 51.9% stake in Davomas by PT Uniflora Prima ((P)B2/stable) and the planned full redemption of Davomas' senior secured notes due 2011 and 2014 are positive for the rating," said Ken Chan, a Moody's Vice President.

According to Chan, the successful completion of the potential transaction should materially improve Davomas credit profile. "Moreover, Davomas has been gradually ramping up its production lines since the middle of last year, subsequent to the production halt in the financial crisis."

In its review, Moody's will focus on the eventual capital structure of Davomas post-completion of the transaction, and the sustainability of its operating performance.

Uniflora Prima Akuisisi 51,86% saham DAVO

PT Uniflora Prima mengakuisisi 51,86% saham PT Davomas Tbk (DAVO) pada harga Rp 108/saham, sehingga total nilai akuisisi mencapai US$ 77 juta. Uniflora membeli 51,86% saham DAVO dari beberapa pemegang saham lama yakni Hassocks Enterprises Limited, Caterpillar Associated Limited, Krigler Holdings Limited, Polar Cap Investments Limited, dan Templeton Assets Limited. Nota perjanjian jual beli saham bersyarat ditandatangani pada 29 Maret 2011.

Setelah mengakuisisi 51,86% saham DAVO, Uniflora berencana menggelar tender offer pada harga Rp 108/saham.

SMART Bangun Pabrik Pengolahan CPO Rp 2,3 Triliun

PT SMART Tbk meresmikan pabrik industri hilir kelapa sawit di Marunda Center International Warehouse & Industrial Estate, Kabupaten Bekasi. Peresmian pabrik ini merupakan tahap awal dari rencana investasi sebesar Rp 2,3 triliun sampai 2013.

Pabrik berkapasitas sekitar 300 ribu ton CPO/tahun ini mampu menghasilkan 168 ribu minyak goreng dan 112 ribu ton margarin. SMART juga telah memperluas lahan pabrik seluas 5 hektare untuk pembangunan pabrik cocoa butter substitute (CBS) atau bahan pengganti cokelat berkapasitas produksi sampai 140 ribu ton/tahun.

"Upaya ini sejalan dengan langkah pemerintah untuk menyelaraskannya dengan rencana onduk percepatan dan perluasan pembangunan ekonomi Indonesia 2011-2025 yang tengah dimatangkan pemerintah serta program Feed Indonesia, Feed the World," ujar Komut SMART Franky O WIdjaja.

Selain itu, sejumlah perusahaan afiliasi Sinar Mas juga berencana investasi hingga Rp 9 triliun dengan kemampuan menyerap sekitar 20 ribu tenaga kerja baik langsung maupun tidak langsung.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 30 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 30 Maret 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin terpangkas 11 poin (-0,31%) ke level 3.591,51 di mana asing melakukan net selling Rp 94,7 miliar. Secara teknikal, candlestick indeks membentuk pola hanging man yang masih mengindikasikan pola bearish reversal, sedangkan indikator stochastic membentuk deathcross di area overbought. Ini menunjukan indeks masih berpeluang terkoreksi lagi. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.542-3.631. Cermati ITMG, BMRI, dan MYOR.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

Tekanan bursa regional kembali mendorong aksi profit taking pada perdagangan kemarin. Di sisi lain, inflasi diperkirakan menjadi sentimen utama pasar pada pekan ini. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan masih dalam tekanan dan bergerak di kisaran 3.550-3.620. UNTR dan TINS menjadi saham pilihan kami.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 30 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 30 Maret 2011.

BUY: (UNTR, PGAS, BBRI, BMRI)

• Konsolidasi di IHSG akibat beberapa big cap index movers terkoreksi dari keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) yang berlanjut dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan untuk mengambil posisi.

• IHSG close (29-03) 3.587(-15.664/-0.43%) (Val.Rp.2.4T)

• Support: 3.530-3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     United Tractors (UNTR): (BUY) (target: Rp 22.650) (close 29/03 Rp 21.600)

• Reaksi pasar terhadap efek dari slowdown dalam produksi komponen alat berat Komatsu akibat gempa dan tsunami Jepang kelihatannya sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga yang cukup dalam sehingga bila masih ada penekanan lebih lanjut rekomen akumulasi untuk technical rebound.

• Entry (1) Rp 21.200, Entry (2) Rp 21.150, Cut loss point: Rp 20.600

 

2.    Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.550) (Close 29/03 Rp 6.350)

• Terkumpulnya dana Rp 13 triliun pasca rights issue yang meningkatkan CAR sebesar 18% dengan Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) sebesesar 70%, dan potensi pengurangan kredit macet (NPL) sebesar Rp 32 triliun di masa depan dapat menjadi katalis positif untuk meneruskan minor uptrend ini pasca konsolidasi.

• Penyelesian kredit macet pasca IPO Garuda dan Domba Mas sebesar Rp 1,6 triliun juga menjadi pendorong sentimen jangka pendek

• Entry (1) Rp 6.300, Entry (2) Rp 6.100, Cut loss point: Rp 5.950

 

3.   Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.900) (Close 29/03 Rp 3.950)

• Pembangunan terminal LNG di Sumatra dan Jawa Barat menjadi katalis tambahan selain kinerja dari hasil penyelesaian pipa SSWJ 1 dan 2 yang memberikan kontribusi cash flow signifikan kepada persero.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.800, Entry (2) Rp 3.700, Cut loss point: Rp 3.550

 

4.  Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.650) (close 29/03 Rp 5.400)

• Bank pemerintah big cap ini memiliki valuasi PER 2011 (11x) lebih murah vs BMRI dan BBNI yang diperdagangkan di atas PER 13x

• Secara technical mulai terbentuk up-trend minor pasca konsolidasi yang lalu

• Entry (1) Rp 5.300, Entry (2) Rp 5.150, Cut loss point: Rp 5.050

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 29 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 29 Maret 2011.

BUY: (BORN, KRAS, BBNI, AALI)

• Konsolidasi di IHSG akibat beberapa big cap index movers terkoreksi dari keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan untuk mengambil posisi.

• IHSG close (28-03) 3.593(-14.90/-0.40%) (Val.Rp.2.4T) 

• Support: 3.530-3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN): (BUY) (target: Rp 1.750) (close 28/03 Rp 1.670)

• Eksposure tinggi ke pasar ekspor hard coking coal (HCC) yang diperlukan untuk proses pembuatan baja sangat menguntungkan emiten dimana sensitivitas labanya akan sangat terkerek akibat potensi upside adjustment ASO (average selling price) HCC dari $230/ton ke $280/ton.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.600, Entry (2) Rp 1.550, Cut loss point: Rp 1.500

 

2.    Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.260) (Close 28/03 Rp 1.190)

• Naiknya biaya produksi baja akibat minyak dan batubara yang melambung tinggi akan memaksa produsen baja menaikan harga untuk offset cost

• Secara technical sudah terjadi golden cross dari 5 dan 10 MA harian dan mingguan untuk confirm bahwa tren sudah mulai berubah dari sideways ke positif

• Entry (1) Rp 1.180, Entry (2) Rp 1.150, Cut loss point: Rp 1.100

 

3.   Bank BNI (BBNI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.900) (Close 28/03 Rp 3.750)

• Pelaku pasar masih optimistis akan kinerja keuangan yang memberikan laba dan provisi yang lebih tinggi untuk 2011.

• Pasca pullback ke crossover point moving average 5-10 hari (Rp 3.675), uptrend BBNI siap melaju kembali untuk membentuk short term up-trend.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.675, Entry (2) Rp 3.550, Cut loss point: Rp 3.500

 

4. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 23.550) (close 28/03 Rp 22.900)

• Selain rencana pembayaran dividen sebesar Rp 896/saham, kenaikan 10% di harga CPO akan mendongkrak laba 2011 hingga 18% (dengan asumsi CPO di atas $1000/ton maka pertumbuhan laba AALI year on year sebesar 40%)

• Secara fundamental seharusnya saham ini diperdagangkan di atas Rp 24.000

• Entry (1) Rp 22.500, Entry (2) Rp 22.150, Cut loss point: Rp 21.800

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)