Deutsche Bank Raises Coal Forecasts on Market Shortage

Deutsche Bank AG raised price forecasts for thermal coal by as much as 17 percent on expectations that a shortage of the fuel will widen over the next two years. 

Export power-coal prices at Richards Bay, South Africa, a market benchmark, will average $118 a metric ton next year and $140 in 2012, Daniel Brebner, a London-based Deutsche Bank analyst, said in a report dated today. That’s up from previous estimates of $110 and $120 respectively, he said. 

“Beyond winter, we expect that the thermal coal market will remain tight as strong demand from emerging markets, particularly China and India, drives record levels of imports,” Brebner said. “Supply is anticipated to be constrained in key producing regions such as China, Indonesia and Australia.” 

Coal demand will outpace supply by 28 million tons in 2011 and by 30 million tons the year after, Brebner said. Richards Bay coal prices rose to $107.11 a ton last week, the highest in more than two years, according to data from IHS McCloskey. Prices rose as lower-than-usual temperatures and snowstorms in Europe push up demand for the fuel. 

Paris will be as cold as minus 1 degree Celsius (30 degrees Fahrenheit) today, according to information on the World Meteorological Organization’s website. That’s compared with a December mean of 3.6 to 7.8 degrees Celsius from 1971-2000. Parts of Estonia are enduring the deepest snowfalls for this month since 1965, state broadcaster Eesti Rahvusringhaeaeling reported on its website. Source: Bloomberg