Bukit Asam sees coal output up 34 pct in 2011

Indonesian miner Bukit Asam said on Monday it expected coal output in 2011 of 17.6 million tonnes, up a third from 13.1 million tonnes last year. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 31 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari lima sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Senin, 31 Januari 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan ditutup melemah 27 poin (-0,76%) ke level 3.487,61 pada perdagangan Jumat (28/1). Hal ini menyusul anjloknya sebagian saham sektor perbankan dan komoditas. Asing tercatat melakukan net selling sebesar Rp 308 miliar dengan sektor yang paling banyak dilepas adalah pertambangan dan perbankan. Jumat lalu indeks bergerak mixed, sehingga tekanan jual dapat dikurangi dan membuat indeks tidak turun tajam. Hari ini indeks diprediksi berada di kisaran 3.451-3.549. Cermati ASII, BUMI dan SMGR.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas

IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat (28/1) melemah 27,01 poin (-0,77%). Seluruh sektor mengalami pelemahan, kecuali sektor infrastruktur dan aneka industri yang menguat 0,14% dan 0,08%. Pada Senin (31/1), indeks akan bergerak pada kisaran 3.462-3.514. SGRO, MPPA, TINS menjadi saham-saham rekomendasi kami. 

3. Kresna Sekurindo

Profit taking kembali terjadi pada sejumlah saham unggulan pada Jumat (28/1) terkait realisasi inflasi Januari yang dikhawatirkan di atas ekspektasi. Walau begitu, data PDB Amerika Serikat (AS) yang diharapkan meningkat 3,5% akan menjadi katalis pergerakan global. IHSG diperkirakan masih berada dalam tekanan dan bergerak di kisaran 3.400-3.500 dengan BUMI dan ASII sebagai saham pilihan.

4. Sinarmas Sekuritas

Hari ini IHSG berpotensi melemah di kisaran 3.456-3.528 karena kekhawatiran terhadap angka inflasi Januari. Apabila indeks mengalami koreksi hingga menyentuh support 3.456, support berikutnya ada di 3.414. Saham-saham yang bisa dikoleksi jika ada pelemahan antara lain PGAS dan ASII.

5. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Pelemahan indeks pada akhir pekan lalu dipimpin oleh sejumlah saham sektor komoditas, industri dasar, dan properti. Ini sejalan dengan penurunan  indeks bursa global, penurunan harga komoditas, menyusul langkah S&P menurunkan peringkat utang Jepang dan aksi jual investor asing. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak mixed dengan kecenderungan melemah pada kisaran 3.434-3.513.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 31 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 31 Januari 2011. Rekomendasinya beli untuk empat saham yakni Adaro Energi (ADRO), United Tractor (UNTR), Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS), dan Astra International (ASII).

BUY:ADRO, UNTR,PGAS, ASII)

• Walaupun didera profit taking akibat ketakutan inflasi Januari, secara technical buy signal dari daily stochastic masih valid di confirm oleh downsloping ADX sehingga masih ada peluang menembus kembali 3.500 sebelum masuk ke overbought area.

• IHSG close (28-01) 3.487.61 (-27.01/-0.77%) (Val.Rp.4.6T)

• Support: 3.420-3.330, Resistance: 3.530-3.650

Stock picks:

1.    Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.500-2.700) (close 28/01 Rp 2.375)

• Koreksi akibat sentimen negatif dari turunnya harga minyak di bawah US$89/b, harga batubara ($135 ke $130/ton) dan imbas koreksi BUMI membawa ADRO ke support critical Rp 2.350 dimana rekomen akumulasi kembali karena beberapa proyeksi laba 2011F yang optimistis dapat naik 40% lebih masih berjalan.

• Diperkirakan produksi batubara di Q1 2011 akan berjalan sesuai target

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.350, Entry (2) Rp 2.250, Cut loss point: Rp 2.175

2.   United Tractors (UNTR) (BUY): (Target: Rp 23.700) (Close 28/01 Rp 21.950)

• Valuasi no 2 paling murah (2010 PE 18x, 2011 PEF 12x) setelah BUMI (2010 PE 17x, 2011 PEF 11x) dan tanpa dibebani oleh masalah leverage (utang) tinggi membuat investor seharusnya mulai melirik emiten heavy equipment yang sekarang lebih bergelut ke bisnis batubara.

• Penguatan rupiah juga memberikan efek positif ke segmen penjualan heavy equipment yang cost impor dalam US$.

• Entry (1) Rp 21.700, (2) Rp 21.200, Cut loss point: Rp 20.800

3.   Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 4.350) (Close 28/01 Rp 4.175)

• Pattern higher low, stochastic buy menunjukan bahwa pelaku pasar mulai melakukan akumulasi untuk membuat proses up-trend recovery terjadi di saham defensif ini yang biasanya siklus naiknya mulai di tengah minor uptrend recovery IHSG.

• Potensi forex gain selama 2010 akibat penguatan rupiah cukup signifikan

• Entry: (1) Rp 4.150, Entry: (2) Rp 4.100, Cut loss point: Rp 4.075

4.    Astra International (ASII): (BUY) (Target: Rp 53.500) (Close 28/01 Rp 51.350)

• Secara technical terjadi perubahan dari non-trending ke trending (terlihat dalam DMI yang positif dengan ADX mulai trending) dalam grafik harian, dimana stochastic dan RSI memberikan sell signal palsu.

• Bila support di Rp 49.200 dapat dipertahankan maka dengan mudah ASII dapat kembali mengetes resistance di downtrend-line pertama (Rp 53.500) dengan resistance kedua terletak di down-trendline kedua Rp 56.000.

• Secara valuasi ASII masih menarik, PER 2010 di 15x, dan PER 11F di 13x, dengan riset fundamental 12-bulan target fundamental analis berkisar antara Rp 53.000 dan Rp 80.000 (HD)

• Entry: (1) Rp 50.900, Entry (2) Rp 50.100, Cut loss point: Rp 49.200

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Copper ends up near record, tin posts new peak

* Copper nears record high on global growth view

* LME inventory builds seen as speculative bet

* Tin climbs to new record above $30,000 per tonne

* Coming up: U.S. regional manufacturing data Monday 

Copper prices closed 1.5 percent away from its record high on Friday, after data showing the U.S. economic expansion picked up in the fourth quarter reaffirmed robust global demand prospects for the industrial metal.

The copper market continued to feed off of the extended rally in tin prices, which climbed to another all-time peak at $30,040 a tonne -- their sixth in as many sessions -- as supply fears in major exporter Indonesia continued to spur bullish momentum.

Copper for three-month delivery on the London Metal Exchange rose $194 to close at $9,635 a tonne, just $146 or about 1.5 percent away from its Jan. 19 peak at $9,781.

COMEX copper for March delivery firmed 3.45 cents to settle at $4.3730 per lb on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

A late-session dip into negative territory from safe-haven flows into other markets due to unrest in Egypt was short-lived and copper prices regained their composure to close near their session highs.

Often viewed as being a good barometer for the global economy, copper prices rallied on data showing the U.S. economy regain its pre-recession peak, led by a big gain in consumer spending and strong exports.

"Business spending on equipment and software up 15 percent last year, computers and related equipment up 27 percent, auto and auto parts up 3.3, household furnishings and appliances up 8.7 percent ... all of that says copper," said Frank Lesh, a broker and futures analyst with Future Path Trading in Chicago.

Copper prices continued to defy a bearish trend in LME inventories since early December. Those stocks went up by another 800 tonnes to 398,075 tonnes, their highest level since early September.

But some market analysts saw the inventory builds as nothing more than a speculative bet on the market price.

"Futures are not inventory scorecards," said Howard Simons, a strategist at Bianco Research Group in Chicago. "You can have a rise in inventories and a rise in prices because people are pulling copper into storage ... it becomes a hoarding game.

"If you're going to get 3 to 3.5 percent global GDP growth this year, you're going to be in a tight supply situation in copper and it might not be a bad speculative bet to hoard it."

On the production front, Chilean copper output fell 1.6 percent in December compared with a year earlier, but it remained stable for 2010 as a whole, with annual production of 5.412 million tonnes.

Looking to next week, top consumer China goes on holiday for the Lunar New Year. China accounts for nearly 40 percent of global copper consumption.

SIZZLING TIN

Tin prices continued to fire on all cylinders, making it the best performing industrial metal this year with a gain of 10 percent.

Indonesia, which supplies nearly 30 percent of the world's tin consumption, producing an estimated 105,000 tonnes in 2010, has been struggling with rain that hampered production last month.

A senior mining official said the country would restrict annual output to a maximum 100,000 tonnes if high prices trigger a scramble for the metal.

"Of all the base metals, tin has had the best fundamentals," said Nic Brown, head of commodities research, economics and strategy at Natixis. "Supply appears relatively constrained ... Demand remains strong. You have a deficit in the market that is gradually eroding available stockpiles and there is limited capacity for substitution into other materials."

But tin's limited liquidity could catch unaware investors off-guard, unable to turn paper profits into real money.

Tin closed at $29,600 a tonne, up from Thursday's last bid of $29,075.

LME aluminum was last quoted at $2,472/$2,473 a tonne, up from $2,427 a tonne on Thursday. It was supported by a first-time confirmation from Deutsche Bank that around 2 million tonnes of the metal are tied up in financing deals.

Financing deals to extended lead times for withdrawal at LME-registered warehouses kept market conditions tight and the U.S. Midwest aluminum premium steady in the first few weeks of the year. Source: Reuters

Sinar Mas, HK's LCNC in talks to buy Mandala Air

Indonesian conglomerate Sinar Mas Group and Hong Kong-based airplane leasing firm LCNC are each in talks to buy debt-ridden Mandala Airlines after it ceased operations two weeks ago, said Herry Bhakti Singayuda at Indonesia's transport ministry on Friday.

"The talks are ongoing and Mandala will report to the government next week on who will be the new owner," Singayuda, the director general for aviation, told Reuters.

Mandala, a budget carrier serving 13 domestic destinations, suspended all flights on Jan 13 as the company struggled with debt problems. Source: Reuters

Indonesia to restrict tin output if record price triggers mining rush

Indonesia, the world's top tin exporter, will restrict annual tin output at a maximum 100,000 tonnes if record high prices trigger a mining rush, two officials told Reuters on Friday.

The trade ministry will also revoke export permits from tin smelters which have not exported the metal or have been idle for years, the officials said.

A crackdown on illegal mining from 2006, tighter export regulations, declining onshore reserves and rainy weather hampering miners in Indonesia have helped drive tin prices to record highs. Source: Reuters

Indonesia suspends rice, soybean duties to combat inflation

 * Measure aims to help fight high inflation

* Indonesia imported bumper rice volume, seeks sugar

* Sugar import duties remain unchanged 

Indonesia will suspend import duties on rice, soybeans and wheat as part of government efforts to fight inflation and the president warned about the global risks posed by scarce resources, as countries grapple with escalating food costs. 

Rising food prices across many parts of the world have been partly responsible for a number of protests in the last week and world leaders warned on Thursday they risked stoking more unrest and even war. 

Indonesia surprised markets this week by buying nearly 5 times as much rice as expected, lifting regional prices, and the measure to remove rice duty until its own harvest in March could signal it may be looking to stockpile more of the staple. 

Fresh demand from Indonesia and Bangladesh for rice is sending a worrying sign the region's main staple may join a price surge for other grains, worsening Asia's spiralling food inflation. Elsewhere, countries like Algeria are rushing to buy grains, a move seen heading off unrest over food prices as protests swept north Africa. 

Food price protests were seen as a major factor in the ousting of Indonesia's long-term autocratic ruler Suharto in 1998, and investor worries over inflation at a 20-month high in December led to a sell-off in Indonesian markets this month. 

"Globally there is increasing pressure on governments, especially developing countries where food prices represents a higher proportion of their CPI basket, to implement some immediate measures to fight inflation and avoid civil unrest," said Chen Xin Yi, analyst at Barclays Capital. 

Southeast Asia's biggest economy also suspended import duties for soybeans and wheat for all of 2011, but maintained duties on sugar despite high prices for the sweetener causing state firms to fail to buy any in recent tenders. 

Rising food prices, especially for rice and chillis, have been at the top of Indonesian policy makers' agendas after they helped drive annual December inflation to near 7 percent, leading economists to call for rate hikes and President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono to ask people to start planting food at home. 

Yudhoyono told the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos that the next economic war could be over the race for scarce resources, due to the pressure on food, energy, water and resources, as the world population could top 9 billion by 2045. 

"They are trying everything to add commodity supply into the country," said Wellian Wiranto, economist at HSBC. "It's a good thing for inflation, to ease the bottleneck of domestic supply from overseas. But don't depend on it too much to tame inflation." 

Traders are speculating on what other commodities may see import duties cut. The archipelago is reliant on imports of wheat, sugar and soy from Australia, Thailand and the United States, and occasionally buys rice if government stocks are low.

Indonesia hasn't seen food protests so far. Costs may have eased this month, but the price of rice -- a staple for its 240 million population -- is still high, partly because the main harvest has not yet started. 

Earlier this week, Indonesia's state buying agency Bulog bought a hefty 820,000 tonnes of rice from Thai exporters for prompt shipment, traders and industry officials said. 

The United Nations' food agency (FAO) this week warned food producing countries against introducing export curbs to protect local markets as world food prices rose close to levels that sparked food riots in 2007/2008, while top executives in Davos rejected calls for curbs on commodity speculation. 

Indonesia's scrapping of import duty for rice of 450 rupiah per kg is unlikely to be extended beyond that date because imports of the staple are not allowed during the main harvest, which traditionally runs from March to April. 

"Import duties for both soybean and wheat should return to normal levels of 5 percent each by January 2012," Bambang Brodjonegoro, the head of the fiscal policy office at the finance ministry, told reporters. 

NO CHEAP NOODLES

A soybean industry official said the duty cut would be good for many producers and consumers, although Indonesian farmers would be unhappy as it might harm domestic production. 

He added the decision to cut import duties was not a surprise and the present situation was not the same as in 2008 when import taxes were suspended because of record prices. 

He said the import duty cut would ultimately help soybean imports, but maintained an import forecast of 1.7-1.75 million tonnes in 2011.

Indonesia imports 70 percent of its annual soybean requirements mostly from the United States, the world's top exporter, and depends entirely on imported wheat, mostly from Australia. 

"We want the duty to stay zero," said a wheat industry official. "Wheat is Indonesia's second staple diet after rice. The farming industry will reject any further duty increases."

Higher wheat prices led Indonesia's PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur , the world's top noodle maker, to say this week it had lifted the price of its instant noodles by roughly 10 percent a pack, which could further push up domestic inflation. 

"The abolishment of import duty will help to some extent to ease input cost pressure for companies such as Indofood Sukses, Indofood CBP and Mayora," said Wilianto Ie, head of Indonesian equity research at Nomura in a note on Friday. 

Some sugar traders were also hoping for a reduction on import duties, after two white sugar tenders recently failed due to high prices. The tenders were part of plans to bring in 450,000 tonnes to bridge an anticipated production shortfall. 

"This creates difficulties for imported sugar now, due to sugar prices rising," said a sugar trader. "Those with import licenses are complaining.". Source: Reuters

UPDATE 1--Bank Mandiri Q4 net profit falls 14 pct-govt

* Bank Mandiri 2010 net profit seen at 8.6 trln rph-govt
* Mandiri Q4 profit at 2.22 trln rph-Reuters calculation
* Bank Rakyat 2010 net profit at 8.5 trln rph-govt
* Bank Negara 2010 net seen at about 2 trln rph-govt

PT Bank Mandiri , Indonesia's largest lender, posted a 14 percent slump in fourth quarter 2010 net profit, as higher provisioning may have squeezed earnings, according to Reuters calculations based on government figures.

The drop comes as investors have reduced their bullishness on Indonesian assets this month on worries over inflation and high valuations, after years of sustained profit growth when Indonesian lenders took advantage of record low interest rates and growing consumer demand in Southeast Asia's biggest economy.

State enterprises minister Mustafa Abubakar said Mandiri earned 8.6 trillion rupiah ($952.7 million) in 2010, in line with expectations by analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S for 8.657 trillion rupiah. Full year profit was up 19 percent from 7.2 trillion rupiah in 2009.
Mandiri posted 2.2 trillion rupiah of net profit in the fourth quarter, according to Reuters calculations based on the published nine-month financial result. 

"The figure is expected, I suspect Mandiri has a higher provisioning in the last quarter," said Teguh Hartanto, a senior banking analyst at PT Bahana Securities.

Mandiri's CEO Zulkifli Zaini told Reuters earlier this week that he saw 2011 net profit up by at least 2 trillion rupiah on 2010. 

Mandiri has the most diversified loan book composition among the top banks, giving investors exposure to the entire credit demand spectrum said Nomura, on raising the bank to "buy" from "neutral" in a note on Friday.

Mandiri's stock traded down 0.8 percent by 0706 GMT while the broader market fell 1.2 percent. The stock gained 38 percent in 2010, underperforming the index's 46 percent rally.
PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia , the second biggest lender, posted 8.5 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, Abubakar said, up 16 percent.

This failed to meet expectations for full-year 2010 net profit of 9.037 trillion rupiah, according to the consensus of analysts polled by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
"It shows that margins were squeezed due to greater competition in microlending," Hartanto said.

BRI's Q4 net profit fell 8 percent to 1.8 trillion rupiah from the year-ago period, according to Reuters calculations based on published first nine month results.

Abubakar also said that PT Bank Negara Indonesia , the fourth biggest bank, was seen posting 2 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, down from 2.48 trillion a year earlier.

This would mean the bank may have failed to meet its expectations for full year 2010 net profit to rise 80 percent, and would be well below analyst forecasts for 3.868 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.

BRI and BNI shares traded down 2.9 percent and 1.5 percent respectively, to underperform the broader market. ($1 = 9027 Rupiah)

Source: Reuters

Bank Mandiri 2010 net profit jumps 19 pct-govt

PT Bank Mandiri , Indonesia's largest lender, posted 8.6 trillion Indonesian rupiah ($952.7 million) in 2010 net profit, up 19 percent from a year earlier, Mustafa Abubakar, state-owned enterprises minister, said on Friday.

PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia , the second biggest lender, posted 8.5 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, Mustafa said, up 16 percent.

PT Bank Negara Indonesia , the fourth biggest bank, posted 2 trillion rupiah of net profit in 2010, he added, down from 2.48 trillion a year earlier. ($1 = 9027 Rupiah). Source: Reuters


Bank                                   Net profit 2010           Status
1. Bank Mandiri                    IDR 8.6 trillion            Up
2. Bank Rakyat Indonesia       IDR 8.5 trillion            Up
3. Bank Negara Indonesia      IDR 2 trillion                Down

Indonesian Stocks Slump a ‘Buying Opportunity,’ Nomura Says

Investors should see the Jakarta Composite Index’s recent decline as a “buying opportunity” as Indonesia’s economy will benefit from “strong” commodity prices while “runaway” inflation is unlikely, Nomura Holdings Companies Inc. said.

PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO), PT Astra International Tbk (ASII), PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI), PT Adaro Energy Tbk (ADRO), PT Indo Tambangraya Megah (ITMG), and PT Perusahaan Perkebunan London Sumatra Indonesia (LSIP) are among the stocks that will lead the rebound, given their “solid underlying fundamentals,” analyst Willanto Le said in a report today.

“The valuation of the Indonesian market is still far from demanding,” he wrote.

Goldman Sachs Set Target Price BNI IDR 4,200/Share

PT Bank Negara Indonesia was rated "buy” in new coverage at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. 

The brokerage has a share-price estimate of 4,200 rupiah, according to a report by Vincent Chang.

Antam Akuisisi Tambang Batubara Rp 92,5 Miliar

PT Indonesia Coal Resources (ICR), anak usaha PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM), telah mengakuisisi tambang batubara Sarolangun yang berlokasi di Jambi. Nilai akuisisi sebesar Rp 92,5 miliar dan menjadi awal bagi ICR untuk mengembangkan bisnisnya di bidang pertambangan batubara.

Selama ini, ANTAM merupakan perusahaan yang bergerak di bisnis tambang logam, seperti nikel, emas, dan bauksit. ANTAM belum pernah menggeluti bisnis batubara. Oleh karenanya, langkah ICR yang merupakan anak usaha ANTAM, secara tidak langsung menunjukkan perluasan bisnis ANTAM ke bisnis batubara.

Tambang batuara Sarolangun telah berproduksi sejak Juni 2010 dengan produksi sepanjang 2010 mencapai sekitar 200 ribu ton. ICR berencana meningkatkan kapasitas produksinya sekitar 500 ribu ton pada 2011. Penjualan ditujukan ke konsumen dalam negeri dan India.

Cadangan batubara Sarolangun mencapai 8,25 juta ton dengan kualitas batubara 5.300-5.500 Kcal/kg.  Menurut manajemen ANTAM, pembentukan ICR merupakan bagian dari dari strategi ANTAM untuk dapat mendukung rencana pembangunan PLTU batubara untuk memasok sebagian kebutuhan listrik di fasilitas feronikel perseroan.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 28 Januari 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari empat sekuritas ternama untuk proyeksi perdagangan Jumat, 28 Januari 2011. 

 

1. E-Trading Securites

Pada perdagangan Kamis (27/1), IHSG  ditutup naik 12,9 poin (0,37%) ke level 3.514,62, di mana asing tercatat melakukan net buying Rp 711 miliar. ASII menjadi target pembelian asing sebesar Rp 212 miliar dan BBRI menjadi saham yang banyak dibeli asing Rp 124 miliar. Total transaksi saham pada perdagangan kemarin mencapai Rp 6,04 triliun. Aksi profit taking terlihat pada pertengahan sesi kedua, karena menjelang penutupan indeks sempat menyentuh teritori negatif. Pada perdagangan hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak pada  kisaran 3.453-3.570. Amati ASII, BMRI, dan BNGA.

2. Kresna Securities

IHSG mencoba melanjutkan penguatannya kemarin. Namun, aksi profit taking di area resistance kembali menahan laju indeks. Munculnya candle shooting star perlu diwaspadai karena ada potensi tekanan jual lanjutan. Untuk hari ini IHSG diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.450-3.550 dengan UNTR dan BBRI sebagai saham pilihan.

3. Erdihka Sekuritas

IHSG ditutup menguat 12,90 poin ke level 3514,63 kemarin. Indeks sempat menguat pada level 3549,48. Sektor barang-barang konsumsi dan aneka industri menopang penguatan indeks. Indeks hari ini akan berada pada kisaran 3.491-3.544 dengan saham-saham rekomendasi INDF, UNVR, dan TINS.

4. Sucorinvest Central Gani

Pada perdagangan kemarin, saham-saham saham sektor barang konsumsi, aneka industri menguat. Namun, sejumlah saham sektor perkebunan, industri dasar, infrastruktur turun di tengah penguatan indeks bursa regional, aksi beli investor asing dan spekulasi Bank Indonesia akan menaikkan suku bunga. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan bergerak melemah pada kisaran 3.478- 3.538.  Buy INDY, JSMR, TINS, hold INDF, PTBA, dan sell AALI, BYAN, TLKM dan UNTR.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 28 Januari 2011

Untuk Jumat, 28 Januari 2011, HD Capital merekomendasikan beli saham Adaro Energy (ADRO), PT Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (PTBA), dan Bumi Resources (BUMI). Sedangkan saham Astra International (ASII) disarankan untuk dijual sementara.

BUY: (ADRO, PTBA, BUMI) SELL: (ASII)

• Bila IHSG berhasil ditutup di atas resistance kunci 3.530 hari Jumat (weekly & monthly close) maka down-trend jangka pendek secara resmi akan berakhir untuk reverse trend ke resistance berikutnya di 3.630-3.700
   
• Sektor batubara kelihatannya akan mulai unjuk gigi
   
• IHSG close (27-01) 3.514.810(+12.452/+0.37%) (Val.Rp.4.9T)

• Support: 3.425-3.340-3.280, Resistance: 3,530-3,630-3,720

 

Stock picks:

1.     Astra International (ASII): (SELL) (Koreksi: Rp 50.250) (close 27/01 Rp 51.200)

• Secara teknikal cukup overbought (jenuh beli) namun masih ada sedikit ruang untuk mencoba mengetes resistance di down-trend-line Rp 53.500.
   
• Bila terjadi pergerakan menuju resistance tersebut disarankan untuk take profit terlebih dahulu dan menunggu pullback retracement untuk masuk kembali.

• Exit: (1) Rp.53.500, Exit (2) Rp 54.500, Reverse posisi: Rp 55.000.

 

2.   Perusahaan Bukit Asam (PTBA) (BUY): (Target: Rp 21.700) (Close 27/01 Rp 20.300)

• Valuasi yang kembali menarik dengan proyeksi earnings tetap serta signal buy dari stochastic oscillator 5 harian yang confirm pattern tweezers bottom candlestick di daily chart menunjukan potensi emitten batubara ini untuk rally menembus 5-MA Rp 20.500 dan menuju resistance berikutnya di 50-MA Rp 21.700

• Entry (1) Rp 20.200, Entry (2) Rp 19.800, Cut loss point: Rp 19.350

 

3.   Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY): (Target: Rp 2.500-2.700) (Close 27/01 Rp 2.425)

• Emiten batubara ini siap keluar dari formasi sideways untuk mencoba mengetes resistance di 50-day MA (Rp.2.500), dan bila kenaikan berlanjut maka downtrend pendek dari high Rp 2.900 3-minggu ini secara resmi berakhir dan berubah menjadi minor uptrend ke Rp 2.700.
   
• Entry: (1) Rp 2.400, Entry (2) 2.300, Cut loss point: Rp 2.200

 

4.   Bumi Resources (BUMI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 3.200) (close 26/01 Rp 3.025)

• Pasar menunggu saham sejuta umat ini keluar dari formasi konsolidasi (trading range) untuk breakout ke Rp 3.200
   
• Bumi memiliki 90% pangsa eksport jadi akan sangat sensitif ke pergerakan harga batubara yang diperkirakan menembus $160/ton tahun ini.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.950, Entry (2) Rp 2.850, Cut-loss point: Rp 2.725

 

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Indonesia's largest pay TV provider to launch IPO this year

PT MNC SkyVision, Indonesia's biggest pay TV provider, plans to launch an initial public offering this year, said the firm's parent company PT Global Mediacom in a statement on Thursday.

MNC SkyVision had an 78 percent market share at the end of 2010 with two of its leading brands "Indovision" and "TOP TV".
The firm said will it appoint underwriters soon. Source: Bloomberg

Mandiri sees 2011 profit up by over 2 trln rph

PT Bank Mandiri , Indonesia's largest lender by assets, sees 2011 net profit up by at least 2 trillion rupiah ($221 million) from 2010, CEO Zulkifli Zaini told Reuters on Thursday.
The bank has yet to post its 2010 profits.

Second largest lender PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia said it expects net profit for 2010 of over 8.5 trillion rupiah, its CEO Sofyan Basir told Reuters at parliament. ($1 = 9033 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Indonesian Stocks May Rebound 18% After Recent Plunge: Technical Analysis

Indonesia’s stocks may rise 18 percent after the benchmark index’s slump to a key Fibonacci support level created a “compelling entry point,” Auerbach Grayson & Co. said. 

The Jakarta Composite index plunged 12 percent from its Dec. 9 record through Jan. 24 as overseas investors exited the nation’s stocks on concern faster inflation would spur higher borrowing costs in Southeast Asia’s biggest economy. A drop of 10 percent or more from a peak signifies a so-called correction to some analysts and investors. 

“Our analysis suggests that the 10 percent correction to a key Fibonacci support has created a compelling entry point,” Richard Ross, global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson in New York, wrote in a note yesterday. “The well-defined uptrend remains intact.” 

Ross said his initial upside target for the gauge is 4,126, an 18 percent gain from yesterday’s closing level of 3,501.72. The index surged 46 percent last year, the best performer among Asia’s 15 biggest markets, as record-low interest rates helped boost economic growth and corporate earnings. The measure advanced 1 percent to 3,536.54 at the 12 p.m. local-time break. 

The central bank has kept interest rates at a record low even as the fastest inflation in 20 months threatens incomes for Indonesians, 29 percent of whom earn less than $2 a day. Policy makers in countries from India to Thailand have boosted borrowing costs in the past 10 months to curb rising prices. 

Stocks on the index traded at 13.2 times estimated earnings on Jan. 24, the lowest level since May and down from a multiple of 18.2 on Dec. 31, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

Stock Valuations 

Indonesian stocks’ decline is a buying opportunity, as the rural-based economy will benefit from rising commodity prices while avoiding runaway inflation, Willianto Ie, an analyst at Nomura Holdings Inc., wrote in a note today. “The valuation of the Indonesian market is still far from demanding,” he said. 

Foreign investors as of Jan. 25 sold a net $428 million of Indonesian stocks this month, the most since May 2005, data compiled by Bloomberg show. 

Ross said Auerbach Grayson favors mining stocks. The Jakarta Mining Index is in a “strong technical position,” with miners displaying relative strength through the recent correction, he wrote. “Bullish trends are accelerating.” The mining gauge advanced 1.7 percent today, paring an annual loss to 1.2 percent. 

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to predict changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. A support level is an area where they anticipate buy orders to be clustered. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices tend to drop or climb by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Source: Reuters

PGN plans 1.5-2 mln T LNG terminal in Sumatra

PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) , Indonesia's biggest gas distributor, said on Thursday a planned floating LNG regasification terminal in northern Sumatra will have a capacity of 1.5 to 2 million tonnes a year.

PGN has appointed Foster Wheeler to manage the terminal project in Belawan and a tender for engineering is expected to be finished by early in the second quarter, PGN's corporate Secretary Wahid Sutopo said at a gas conference in Jakarta.

"The capacity of the terminal will be around 200 million cubic feed per day of gas or 1.5 to 2 million tonnes per year," Sutopo told Reuters, declining to give a figure for investment.
PGN also plans together with state energy firm PT Pertamina a floating LNG receiving terminal near Jakarta with capacity of around 3 million tonnes a year, to be built by Golar LNG .

Indonesia, the world's number-three LNG exporter after Qatar and Malaysia, is increasing its use of natural gas at home to avoid costly imports and dwindling domestic supply. Its exports of LNG will fall to 362 cargoes this year from 427 in 2010. Source: Reuters

Panasonic May Double Production Capacity for LED Light Bulbs in Two Years

Panasonic Corp. may double its production capacity for light bulbs using light-emitting diodes within two years to tap the growing market for energy-saving devices, an executive said. 

Sales of LED lamps in Japan may surge 64 percent next fiscal year, Yoshio Ito, president of Panasonic’s lighting business, said in an interview yesterday.

“We won’t be able to attain our target unless we at least double our capacity,” Ito said. Panasonic plans to boost sales of the light bulbs outside Japan as well, he said. 

Japan’s largest maker of home appliances expects sales at its lighting unit will jump 43 percent to 100 billion yen ($1.2 billion) by March 2013, Ito said. The Osaka-based company faces competition in the light-emitting diode market from manufacturers including Toshiba Corp. and Royal Philips Electronics NV, the world’s biggest lighting company. 

Panasonic rose 0.5 percent to 1,160 yen as of 9:23 a.m. in Tokyo trading. The benchmark Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.6 percent. 

Panasonic makes LED bulbs at factories in China and Indonesia and has an annual production capacity of about 6 million units, Ito said. 

The company aims to win half of the market for LED lamps in Japan in the fiscal year ending March 2011, when industrywide sales may increase to 18 million units from 11 million in the current fiscal year, Ito said. Panasonic may also need to make 3 million to 4 million units for overseas sales next fiscal year, he said.  Source: Bloomberg

Laba Bersih MNC 2010 Melonjak 94%

PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) membukukan kenaikan laba bersih pada 2010 sebesar 94% dari Rp 386 miliar pada 2009 menjadi Rp 748 miliar. Hal ini terjadi seiring pertumbuhan hasil pendapatan konsolidasi sebesar 27% dari Rp 3,92 triliun menjadi Rp 4,99 triliun.

Pendapatan iklan MNC dalam setahun terakhir tumbuh 32%. Sedangkan pendapatan dari content & value added services juga meningkat sebesar 20%. EBITDA 2010 tercatat melonjak sebesar 86% dari Rp 774 miliar tahun 2009 menjadi Rp 1,44 triliun.

EBITDA marjin juga turut meningkat dari 20% menjadi 29%. "Kami telah berhasil meningkatkan posisi kami sebagai perusahaan media terdepan di Indonesia dan kami juga telah mencatat kinerja yang sangat baik selama 2010. Kami tetap percaya bahwa kami akan dapat terus mempertahankan kinerja yang sangat baik ini pada 2011," jelas Harry Tanoesoedibjo, CEO dari MNC Group dalam keterbukaan informasinya ke otoritas Bursa Efek Indonesia, semalam.