Perusahaan Gas Negara Q4 net profit down 15 pct

Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) , Indonesia's biggest gas distributor, said its fourth quarter net profit fell 15 percent, as a shortage gas supplies affected its earnings.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 1.55 trillion rupiah ($178 million) compared with 1.83 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results.

PGN, which said that it revenues will remain flat this year due to limited fresh gas supplies, reported a flat full year 2010 net profit of 6.24 trillion rupiah.

That compared with analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit to rise 6 percent to 6.58 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S estimates.
PGN shares rose 0.7 percent on Thursday after the results, but have fallen 13 percent this year. Its shares rose 13 percent in 2010, underperforming the 46 percent rally in the Jakarta index. Source: Reuters 

United Tractors to raise $700mln via rights issue this yr

* To issue 403.26 million of new shares

* To offer at 15,050 rph per share, or 44.5 pct discount from Wednesday closing

* Says will use 90 pct of funds for expansion

Indonesia's United Tractors plans to raise 6.1 trillion rupiah ($699.62 million) via a rights issue this year to fund its expansion plans, the country's biggest heavy equipment provider said in a statement on Thursday. 

The firm, controlled by Indonesia's largest listed firm Astra International , will offer 403.26 million of new shares with the price offering at 15,050 rupiah per share, or representing a 44.5 percent discount to Wednesday's closing price. 

The last day of the offering has been set for May 30. 

United Tractors said it plans to use most of the funds to finance the expansion of its coal mining and coal contractor business as well as power plant opportunities. ($1 = 8719.000 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Garuda Plans to Buy 18 Sub-100 Seat Planes to Expand Routes

PT Garuda Indonesia, the flag carrier that raised $530 million in a January initial public offering, may buy 18 planes with fewer than 100 seats to expand services to areas without airports for larger aircraft.

Garuda plans to buy the planes by 2015 with delivery starting next year, Elisa Lumbantoruan, the airline’s finance director, said in Jakarta today. A request for proposals will be issued next month and announcement on the tender is expected in June, he said, without naming prospective suppliers.

“We want to be able to land on shorter runways,” Lumbantoruan said at a press briefing. “We want to fly tourists to regions around Bali.”

Garuda, which today reported net income fell 48 percent in 2010, intends to use the smaller planes to access more domestic routes among Indonesia’s 17,000 islands that span 3,200 miles (5,150 kilometers), the distance from Florida to Alaska. The carrier wants to “bypass” larger airports in Jakarta, Surabaya and Bali’s Denpasar by offering direct flights among smaller regional airports, Lumbantoruan said.

Capital Spending

Garuda, which raised $4.8 trillion rupiah in an initial public offering in January, plans $250 million in capital spending this year, as much as $130 million of which will go to purchasing new planes, Chief Executive Officer Emirsyah Satar said. The company also plans to add routes this year to Taipei and member countries of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, he said.

The carrier also plans to lease six Airbus 320-200s for its Citilink service this year. The mainline carrier will add two A330-200s and nine Boeing Co. 737-800 NG in the year, Lumbantoruan said.

Garuda has pared flights to Tokyo as concerns about radiation leaks at a tsunami-stricken nuclear-power plant north of the capital and electricity shortages damp travel demand. The carrier will combine two separate services to the Japanese capital from Jakarta and Denpasar into one flight starting April 5 until April 22, Lumbantoruan said.

Garuda dropped 3.6 percent to 530 rupiah as of the 4 p.m. close of Jakarta trading.

Net income fell to 515.5 billion rupiah ($59 million) from 1 trillion rupiah last year as operating costs increased, outstripping a 9 percent gain in revenue to 19.5 trillion rupiah.

Fuel costs will probably rise again this year, Satar said. Source: Bloomberg

Bank Rakyat Indonesia Q4 net profit jumps

Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), Indonesia's second-biggest lender by assets, fourth quarter of 2010 net profit rose 139 percent, driven by strong loan growth, a bank's statement obtained by Reuters showed.

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 4.81 trillion rupiah ($551 million), compared with 2.01 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results.

State-owned Bank Rakyat, which aims to slash its dividend payout ratio to only 5 percent from 30 percent, reported a full-year 2010 net profit of 11.47 trillion rupiah. That compared with a net profit of 7.31 trillion rupiah a year before.

Analysts had forecast full-year 2010 net profit up 24 percent to 9.04 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate.

Bank Rakyat, which specializes in microlending to farmers and small businesses in Southeast Asia's largest economy, saw 2010 full-year net interest income up 43 percent to 32.89 trillion rupiah, from 23.05 trillion rupiah a year earlier.

The lender's shares rose 0.9 percent on Wednesday ahead of the result, and have gained 2.9 percent this year to outperform the Jakarta index's .JKSE 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8722.500 Indonesian Rupiahs). Source: Reuters

Telkom Q4 net profit rises 24 pct

* Q4 net profit at 2.6 trln rph vs 2.1 trln rph yr ago

* FY 2010 net profit up 1.2 percent to 11.53 trln rph

Telekomunikasi Indonesia (Telkom) , Indonesia's biggest telecommunications firm, reported fourth quarter net profit rose 24 percent as its data and internet businesses boosted revenue to make up for low growth in mobile subscriptions. 

Telkom's mobile unit Telkomsel, 35 percent owned by SingTel , expects mobile subscriber growth at up to 13 percent in 2011, after subscriber revenue only grew 2 percent in 2010.

The firm's fourth quarter 2010 net profit was 2.6 trillion rupiah ($298 million), compared with 2.1 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations showed based on published full-year and nine month results. 

State-controlled Telkom reported full year 2010 net profit of 11.53 trillion rupiah. That compared with a net profit of 11.4 trillion rupiah a year before, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 of 11.58 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate. 

Telkom, which has set aside 2 trillion rupiah for a share buyback programme, saw 2010 revenue up 1.4 percent to 68.63 trillion rupiah. 

Telkom has said it is re-evaluating a fixed-wireless deal with PT Bakrie Telecom worth nearly $1 billion as it wants a majority stake. Bakrie Telecom's parent Bakrie & Bros told Reuters this week it was frustated with the slow pace of the deal and could speak to other suitors. 

Telkom is still in talks to acquire a majority stake in Cambodia's largest mobile operator CamGSM in a deal that could be worth more than $500 million, though the firm said last year it expected the deal to be completed by the first quarter. 

The planned deal would be Telkom's first major purchase overseas, and would signal further consolidation as fast-growing Southeast Asian mobile markets mature. 

The firm's shares rose 0.7 percent by 0337 GMT on Thursday after the result, but have fallen 8.8 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index's 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8719 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Bumi Q4 profit beats forecasts, rivals

* Q4 net profit at $115.58 mln vs Q4 '09 loss of $169.77 mln

 * 2010 net up 63 pct to $311.18 mln, vs $270 mln consensus

 * Profits seen doubling in 2011 on lower debt cost-CLSA

Indonesia's Bumi Resources  , Asia's biggest thermal coal exporter, on Thursday

posted fourth quarter net profit of $115.58 million, a turnaround after a net loss a year earlier as sales climbed.      

Bumi's positive result stood out among other local coal miners that saw earnings plunge after heavy rainfall hurt production, including No.2 miner Adaro Energy that saw a 43 percent slide in quarterly net profit.

         

"Further upside to earnings and our forecast will come from repayment of the first tranche of CIC debt in August, which stands to save $100 million in annual interest payments," said Nick Cashmore of CLSA, in a note to clients after the result.      

Bumi, which sees coal prices and demand going up in the medium term after Japan's recent earthquake and tsunami, posted fourth quarter net profit of $115.58 million, compared with a loss of $169.77 million in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on published full-year and nine month

results showed.      

         

The jump from a year ago came after Bumi was hit in the fourth quarter 2009 by high charges for mine stripping. Investors were also concerned last year about debt levels and the risk of higher taxes, after authorities alleged Bumi and its two coal units, Kaltim Prima Coal and Arutmin Indonesia, owed about 2.1 trillion rupiah ($232 million) in tax. 

Bumi won a Supreme Court ruling in May that rejected an appeal for a continued investigation by tax authorities.

Its full year 2010 net profit was $311.18 million. That compared with a net profit of $190.45 million in the year-ago period, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 of $269.8 million, according to Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S consensus

estimates.   

CLSA forecasts earnings to more than double in 2011 to $705 million.       

 Bumi, which already controls 10 percent of the global thermal coal market, aims to be China's largest supplier of coal for power plants. Indonesia is the world's largest exporter of thermal coal.

         

Bumi saw $4.37 billion in revenues last year, or a 19 percent increase versus $3.66 billion in 2009. Bumi, with a market capitalisation of $7.8 billion, is

controlled by the politically-connected Bakrie Group, which joined forces with the Rothschild banking dynasty in November for Vallar to get a 25 percent stake in Bumi. The Bakrie Group will own 43 percent in the combined London-listed company, which will be renamed Bumi Plc.       

The Bakrie family's holding investment firm Bakrie & Brothers told Reuters this week that Vallar/Bumi Plc plans to increase its stake in Bumi Resources up to 51 percent before June.

         

Bumi shares ended steady at 3,350 rupiah after the results, having gained 10.7 percent this year to outperform a little changed Jakarta index. Bumi's stock underperformed in 2010 when the index rallied 46 percent. ($1 = 8722.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters        

Bumi 2010 Profit Climbs to $311 Million, Beating Estimates

PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s largest coal producer by volume, said net income jumped 63 percent last year, beating analyst estimates, as prices of the fuel increased. 

Profit climbed to $311 million from $191 million, the Jakarta-based company said in a statement published today in Suara Pembaruan newspaper. Revenue rose to $4.4 billion from $3.7 billion. That compares with a mean estimate of $276 million in profit and $4.1 billion in revenue from a Bloomberg News survey of 17 analysts. 

Coal producers in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest exporter of the fuel, are benefiting from gains in prices and demand after floods in Australia, the largest shipper, disrupted output. The Indonesian coal reference price rose 18 percent to $103.41 a metric ton in December compared with February 2010, when the government started the benchmark index. 

The unit of PT Bakrie & Brothers sold a “little over” 60 million tons of coal last year at an average $70 a ton compared with 58 million tons at $63 a ton in 2009, Director Dileep Srivastava said Jan. 21. Bumi expects sales and prices to increase by at least 10 percent this year, assuming reasonable weather conditions, he said then. 

Analysts expect Bumi, which has a market value of 69.6 trillion rupiah ($8 billion), to report $515 million in profit and $5.3 billion in sales this year. 

Bumi was unchanged at 3,350 rupiah at the 4 p.m. close in Jakarta trading. The stock has risen 11 percent this year compared with the 0.7 percent drop in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index. (JCI). Source: Bloomberg

Indonesian coal miner Adaro Energy Q4 net profit falls 43 pct

Adaro Energy , Indonesia's No.2 coal miner, on Wednesday said its fourth quarter 2010 net profit fell 43 percent after heavy rainfall hurt production and as costs rose. 

The firm's fourth quarter net profit was 0.5 trillion rupiah ($57.3 million), compared with 0.87 trillion rupiah in the same period a year earlier, Reuters calculations based on published full-year and nine month results showed. 

Unprecedented heavy rainfall affected operations last year but the firm sees a better performance ahead as the outlook for coal remains robust, said Garibaldi Thohir, Adaro's chief executive officer, in a statement. 

Adaro, which has a market capitalisation of $8.4 billion, posted full year 2010 net profit of 2.2 trillion rupiah. 

That compared with a net profit of 4.4 trillion rupiah in the year-ago period, and analysts' forecasts for 2010 net profit of 2.6 trillion rupiah, according to Thomson Reuters' Starmine SmartEstimate. 

The coal miner's finance costs climbed 14 percent on interest expenses for its $800 million bonds issued in 2009. The firm's net debt nearly doubled to 8.9 trillion rupiah in 2010 from 4.48 trillion rupiah in 2009. 

Adaro shares fell 2.2 percent on Wednesday to 2,225 rupiah before the results, and have fallen 12.7 percent this year to underperform the Jakarta index's 1.7 percent drop. ($1 = 8722.5 Rupiah). Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 31 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 31 Maret 2011.

BUY: (PTBA, ASII, BJBR, INDF)

• Penutupan IHSG diatas resistance kunci 3.600 (50-days moving average) memberikan konfirmasi bahwa minor uptrend menuju 3.700 sudah mulai berjalan

• IHSG close (30-03) 3.634(+27.664/+2.83%) (Val.Rp.3.4T) 

• Support: 3.600-3.530-3.450, Resistance: 3,680-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Bukit Asam (PTBA): (BUY) (target: Rp.22.650) (close 30/03 Rp.21.400)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti upside adjustment ASP (average selling price) thermal coal yang proyeksi laba naik hingga 30-50%, masih berjalan sesuai scenario di Q1 2011, dimana PTBA memiliki kandungan 85% thermal coal yang spot sudah berada diatas $130/ton.

• Entry (1) Rp.21.300, Entry (2) Rp.20.850, Cut loss point: Rp.20.400

 

2.    Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target: Rp.58.350) (Close 30/03 Rp.56.500)

• Penjualan mobil tidak akan turun signifikan selama suku bunga masih kondisif untuk permintaan kredit mobil.

• Walaupun penjualan Februari sedikit melemah namun pada bulan Januari dimana harga mobil dinaikan sebesar 3% dan pajak progressif diberlakukan, penjualan justru naik.

• Pasca penutupan gap Rp.56.500-55.900 yang disebabkan oleh panic selling akibat downgrade fundamental, ASII siap mengetes resistance high di Rp.57.900-59.200.

• Entry (1) Rp.55.800, Entry (2) Rp.55.200, Cut loss point: Rp.54.050 

 

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp.5.450) (Close 30/03 Rp.5.300)

• Berhasilnya persero mempunyai margin stabil walaupun harga gandum naik (bahan baku mie) dan diversifikasi ke unit CPO dan gula untuk mengambil keuntungan dari harga komoditas membuat INDF menjadi perusahaan yang sangat efficient.

• Valuasi PER 2011 (12x) 2010 (15x) masih dirasa murah untuk big cap index driver ini dengan ROE diatas 25%

• Entry: (1) Rp.5.250, Entry (2) Rp.5.150, Cut loss point: Rp.5.050

 

4.  Bank Jawa Barat (BJBR) (BUY) (Target: Rp.1.310) (close 30/03 Rp.1.230)

• Pasca konsolidasi ke ma-crossover buy point dan konfirmasi buy dari stochastic dan macd harian, uptrend di emitten bank daerah dengan customer base pegawai sipil di Jawa Barat bersiko rendah untuk kredit macet (NPL dibawah 2%) ini siap berjalan.

• Proyeksi pertumbuhan laba sebesar 33% untuk 2011 masih optimis dapat tercapai.

• Entry (1) Rp.1.230, Entry (2) Rp.1.190, Cut loss point: Rp.1.150

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Bank BJB Bagikan Dividen 65% dari Laba Bersih 2010

PT Bank BJB Tbk (BJBR) akan membagikan dividen sebesar 65% dari perolehan laba bersih 2010. Total dividen yang dibagikan sebesar Rp 578,61 miliar lebih atau setara dengan Rp 59,67/saham.

Adapun jadwal pembayaran dividen sebagai berikut:
Cum dividen di pasar regular dan negosiasi                       19 April 2011
Ex dividen di pasar regular dan negosiasi                          20 April 2011
Cum dividen di pasar tunai                                              25 April 2011
Ex dividen di pasar tunai                                                 26 April 2011
Recording date yang berhak atas dividen                          25 April 2011
Tanggal pembayaran dividen                                            9 Mei 2011
Tanggal pendistribusian bukti potong pajak                        23 Mei 2011

Multistrada Tunjuk HSBC Kaji Pengembangan Usaha

Manajemen PT Multistrada Arah Sarana Tbk (MASA), produsen ban nasional ketiga terbesar menunjuk Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited (HSBC) sebagai penasihat keuangan (financial advisor) selama 12 bulan. Mandat kepada HSBC dilakukan manajemen MASA pada 29 Maret 2011.

Direktur MASA Y Ade Bunian Moniaga mengatakan, penunjukkan HSBC bertujuan untuk memperoleh tinjauan strategis secara keseluruhan atas pengembangan usaha perseroan, sehingga manajemen MASA dapat mengambil langkah-langkah strategis yang tepat di bidang keuangan dan dapat meningkatkan nilai tambah bagi perusahaan dan pemegang saham.

Moody's Review Davomas' Rating to Upgrade

Moody's Investors Service has today placed PT Davomas Abadi Tbk's (Davomas) Caa3 corporate family rating on review for possible upgrade. "The potential acquisition of 51.9% stake in Davomas by PT Uniflora Prima ((P)B2/stable) and the planned full redemption of Davomas' senior secured notes due 2011 and 2014 are positive for the rating," said Ken Chan, a Moody's Vice President.

According to Chan, the successful completion of the potential transaction should materially improve Davomas credit profile. "Moreover, Davomas has been gradually ramping up its production lines since the middle of last year, subsequent to the production halt in the financial crisis."

In its review, Moody's will focus on the eventual capital structure of Davomas post-completion of the transaction, and the sustainability of its operating performance.

Uniflora Prima Akuisisi 51,86% saham DAVO

PT Uniflora Prima mengakuisisi 51,86% saham PT Davomas Tbk (DAVO) pada harga Rp 108/saham, sehingga total nilai akuisisi mencapai US$ 77 juta. Uniflora membeli 51,86% saham DAVO dari beberapa pemegang saham lama yakni Hassocks Enterprises Limited, Caterpillar Associated Limited, Krigler Holdings Limited, Polar Cap Investments Limited, dan Templeton Assets Limited. Nota perjanjian jual beli saham bersyarat ditandatangani pada 29 Maret 2011.

Setelah mengakuisisi 51,86% saham DAVO, Uniflora berencana menggelar tender offer pada harga Rp 108/saham.

SMART Bangun Pabrik Pengolahan CPO Rp 2,3 Triliun

PT SMART Tbk meresmikan pabrik industri hilir kelapa sawit di Marunda Center International Warehouse & Industrial Estate, Kabupaten Bekasi. Peresmian pabrik ini merupakan tahap awal dari rencana investasi sebesar Rp 2,3 triliun sampai 2013.

Pabrik berkapasitas sekitar 300 ribu ton CPO/tahun ini mampu menghasilkan 168 ribu minyak goreng dan 112 ribu ton margarin. SMART juga telah memperluas lahan pabrik seluas 5 hektare untuk pembangunan pabrik cocoa butter substitute (CBS) atau bahan pengganti cokelat berkapasitas produksi sampai 140 ribu ton/tahun.

"Upaya ini sejalan dengan langkah pemerintah untuk menyelaraskannya dengan rencana onduk percepatan dan perluasan pembangunan ekonomi Indonesia 2011-2025 yang tengah dimatangkan pemerintah serta program Feed Indonesia, Feed the World," ujar Komut SMART Franky O WIdjaja.

Selain itu, sejumlah perusahaan afiliasi Sinar Mas juga berencana investasi hingga Rp 9 triliun dengan kemampuan menyerap sekitar 20 ribu tenaga kerja baik langsung maupun tidak langsung.

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 30 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dua sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Rabu, 30 Maret 2011.

1. E-Trading Securities

Indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) kemarin terpangkas 11 poin (-0,31%) ke level 3.591,51 di mana asing melakukan net selling Rp 94,7 miliar. Secara teknikal, candlestick indeks membentuk pola hanging man yang masih mengindikasikan pola bearish reversal, sedangkan indikator stochastic membentuk deathcross di area overbought. Ini menunjukan indeks masih berpeluang terkoreksi lagi. Untuk hari ini, indeks diperkirakan bergerak di kisaran 3.542-3.631. Cermati ITMG, BMRI, dan MYOR.

2. Kresna Sekurindo

Tekanan bursa regional kembali mendorong aksi profit taking pada perdagangan kemarin. Di sisi lain, inflasi diperkirakan menjadi sentimen utama pasar pada pekan ini. Hari ini indeks diperkirakan masih dalam tekanan dan bergerak di kisaran 3.550-3.620. UNTR dan TINS menjadi saham pilihan kami.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 30 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Rabu, 30 Maret 2011.

BUY: (UNTR, PGAS, BBRI, BMRI)

• Konsolidasi di IHSG akibat beberapa big cap index movers terkoreksi dari keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) yang berlanjut dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan untuk mengambil posisi.

• IHSG close (29-03) 3.587(-15.664/-0.43%) (Val.Rp.2.4T)

• Support: 3.530-3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     United Tractors (UNTR): (BUY) (target: Rp 22.650) (close 29/03 Rp 21.600)

• Reaksi pasar terhadap efek dari slowdown dalam produksi komponen alat berat Komatsu akibat gempa dan tsunami Jepang kelihatannya sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga yang cukup dalam sehingga bila masih ada penekanan lebih lanjut rekomen akumulasi untuk technical rebound.

• Entry (1) Rp 21.200, Entry (2) Rp 21.150, Cut loss point: Rp 20.600

 

2.    Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.550) (Close 29/03 Rp 6.350)

• Terkumpulnya dana Rp 13 triliun pasca rights issue yang meningkatkan CAR sebesar 18% dengan Loan to deposit ratio (LDR) sebesesar 70%, dan potensi pengurangan kredit macet (NPL) sebesar Rp 32 triliun di masa depan dapat menjadi katalis positif untuk meneruskan minor uptrend ini pasca konsolidasi.

• Penyelesian kredit macet pasca IPO Garuda dan Domba Mas sebesar Rp 1,6 triliun juga menjadi pendorong sentimen jangka pendek

• Entry (1) Rp 6.300, Entry (2) Rp 6.100, Cut loss point: Rp 5.950

 

3.   Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.900) (Close 29/03 Rp 3.950)

• Pembangunan terminal LNG di Sumatra dan Jawa Barat menjadi katalis tambahan selain kinerja dari hasil penyelesaian pipa SSWJ 1 dan 2 yang memberikan kontribusi cash flow signifikan kepada persero.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.800, Entry (2) Rp 3.700, Cut loss point: Rp 3.550

 

4.  Bank BRI (BBRI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 5.650) (close 29/03 Rp 5.400)

• Bank pemerintah big cap ini memiliki valuasi PER 2011 (11x) lebih murah vs BMRI dan BBNI yang diperdagangkan di atas PER 13x

• Secara technical mulai terbentuk up-trend minor pasca konsolidasi yang lalu

• Entry (1) Rp 5.300, Entry (2) Rp 5.150, Cut loss point: Rp 5.050

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 29 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Selasa, 29 Maret 2011.

BUY: (BORN, KRAS, BBNI, AALI)

• Konsolidasi di IHSG akibat beberapa big cap index movers terkoreksi dari keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan untuk mengambil posisi.

• IHSG close (28-03) 3.593(-14.90/-0.40%) (Val.Rp.2.4T) 

• Support: 3.530-3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN): (BUY) (target: Rp 1.750) (close 28/03 Rp 1.670)

• Eksposure tinggi ke pasar ekspor hard coking coal (HCC) yang diperlukan untuk proses pembuatan baja sangat menguntungkan emiten dimana sensitivitas labanya akan sangat terkerek akibat potensi upside adjustment ASO (average selling price) HCC dari $230/ton ke $280/ton.

• Entry (1) Rp 1.600, Entry (2) Rp 1.550, Cut loss point: Rp 1.500

 

2.    Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.260) (Close 28/03 Rp 1.190)

• Naiknya biaya produksi baja akibat minyak dan batubara yang melambung tinggi akan memaksa produsen baja menaikan harga untuk offset cost

• Secara technical sudah terjadi golden cross dari 5 dan 10 MA harian dan mingguan untuk confirm bahwa tren sudah mulai berubah dari sideways ke positif

• Entry (1) Rp 1.180, Entry (2) Rp 1.150, Cut loss point: Rp 1.100

 

3.   Bank BNI (BBNI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 3.900) (Close 28/03 Rp 3.750)

• Pelaku pasar masih optimistis akan kinerja keuangan yang memberikan laba dan provisi yang lebih tinggi untuk 2011.

• Pasca pullback ke crossover point moving average 5-10 hari (Rp 3.675), uptrend BBNI siap melaju kembali untuk membentuk short term up-trend.

• Entry: (1) Rp 3.675, Entry (2) Rp 3.550, Cut loss point: Rp 3.500

 

4. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI) (BUY) (Target: Rp 23.550) (close 28/03 Rp 22.900)

• Selain rencana pembayaran dividen sebesar Rp 896/saham, kenaikan 10% di harga CPO akan mendongkrak laba 2011 hingga 18% (dengan asumsi CPO di atas $1000/ton maka pertumbuhan laba AALI year on year sebesar 40%)

• Secara fundamental seharusnya saham ini diperdagangkan di atas Rp 24.000

• Entry (1) Rp 22.500, Entry (2) Rp 22.150, Cut loss point: Rp 21.800

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Indo Tambangraya to acquire Kalimantan coal mine

Indonesia's Indo Tambangraya Megah , a unit of Thai's Banpu , plans to buy a coal mine in Kalimantan with annual capacity of one million tonnes, the firm's CEO said on Monday. 

The country's no.3 coal miner expects to produce 25 million tonnes of coal this year, up from 22 million tonnes last year, said Somyot Ruchirawat. 

Rumchirawat said the company has been looking to expand output by mine acquisitions and expects one deal this year. 

"There are two or three potential coal miners that are targeted, but we will acquire a coal mine in Kalimantan with production capacity of 1 million tonnes a year," he said after a shareholders meeting in Jakarta. 

The firm's coal shipments to Japan are continuing after the recent devastating tsunami, as its buyers are located in areas of the country that have been unaffected, he added.

"There are a lot of orders and no cancellations so far," Ruchirawat said. 

Indonesia is the world's top exporter of thermal coal, and Japan is the largest buyer of Indonesian coal for power stations. The Indonesian Coal Mining Association has said damaged ports meant some Japan-bound coal has been redirected to China. Source: Reuters

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 28 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Senin, 28 Maret 2011.

BUY:  UNTR, ASII, INDF, ADRO

• Bila terjadi koreksi akibat keadaan jenih beli di IHSG rekomen akumulasi karena keadaan tren mulai berubah dari tren samping (konsolidasi) ke minor uptrending

• IHSG close (25-03) 3.607.11 (-4.53/-0.12%) (Val.Rp.2.9T)

• Support: 3.530-3.475-3.350, Resistance: 3.630-3.700-3.850

Stock picks:

1.   United Tractors (UNTR): (BUY) (Target: Rp 23.200) (close 25/03 Rp 22.550)

• Ketakutan pasar akan berkurangnya pasokan spare parts alat berat Komatsu pasca gempa bumi dan Tsunami di utara Jepang terlihat sudah tercermin dalam koreksi harga sebelumnya dan dirasakan berlebihan karena UNTR juga memiliki kontribusi dari segi bisnis di pertambangan batubara.

• Entry: (1) Rp 22.250, Entry (2) Rp 22.000, Cut loss point: Rp 21.900

2.   Astra International (ASII) (BUY): (Target:Rp 58.350) (Close 25/03 Rp 57.900)

• Koreksi akibat keadaan jenuh beli (overbought) di stochastic harian setelah kenaikan berturut-turut selama beberapa hari ke dalam price gap bawah di Rp 56.900 dapat digunakan sebagai kesempatan akumulasi untuk antisipasi technical rebound.

• Entry: (1) Rp 56.900, Entry (2) 56.200, Cut loss point: Rp 55.600

3.   Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) (BUY): (Target: Rp 5.350) (Close 25/03 Rp 5.200)

• Minor pullback akibat keadaan overbought memberikan kesempatan untuk mengambil posisi di emiten consumer sector yang menjadi leader dalam komponen IHSG didorong oleh rupiah yang kuat, inflasi terkendali serta daya beli masyarakat meningkat membuat kinerja tetap solid.

• Entry: (1) Rp 5.100, Entry: (2) Rp 5.000, Cut loss point: Rp 4.950

4.    Adaro Energy (ADRO): (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.450) (Close 25/03 Rp 2.275)

• Koreksi sebesar 10% selama 2-minggu terakhir dari Rp 2.500 membuat valuasi emiten dengan market cap terbesar setelah BUMI ini menarik untuk dilirik kembali.

• Downgrade fundamental akibat laporan keuangan 2010 yang mengecewakan sudah tercermin dalam harga, pasar sekarang melihat ke potensi kenaikan harga ASP (average selling price) batubara di Q1 2011 dan efeknya terhadap pendapatan persero.

• Entry: (1) Rp 2.225, Entry (2) Rp 2.175, Cut loss point: Rp 2.100

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital. (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

FLSmidth signs contract with Adaro Indonesia worth over $135 mln

* Signs materials handling contract with PT Adaro Indonesia

* Says deal worth over $135 million

Danish engineering group FLSmidth (FLS.CO) said on Friday it had signed a coal mining equipment deal worth over $135 million with PT Adaro Indonesia.

The group said it would supply material handling equipment to PT Adaro Indonesia, a subsidiary of PT Adaro Energy (ADRO.JK), to a coal mine in the Tanjung district.

"This material handling contract is the first in Indonesia and reflects a growing market in the region, particularly in the minerals sector where mining companies are expanding," FLSmidth Chief Executive Jorgen Huno Rasmussen said in the statement.

The contract comprises an out-of-pit crushing and conveying system, FLSmidth, a supplier of engineering services and equipment to the cement and minerals industries, said.

"Being the first of its kind in Indonesia, the project will act as a catalyst for other potential orders in the region," Rasmussen said. Source: Reuters

Garuda to cut Japan flights on low demand

Garuda Indonesia , the country's flag carrier, said on Friday it will reduce its flights from Bali to Japan from April because of lower demand, as radiation leaks from a nuclear plant crippled by a tsunami this month.

"We see a trend of slowing demand of flights serving Japan routes so we will reduce flights from Tokyo to Denpasar," said spokesman Pujobroto, adding seven flights would be cut from its total of 24 a month to Japan.

Japan said on Friday workers who suffered burns while trying to cool a crippled reactor were exposed to radiation levels 10,000 times higher than expected, which could mean a serious reversal after days of apparently steady progress in containing radiation leaks. Source: Reuters

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa oleh OSK

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa oleh OSK.

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa Oleh OSK

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa oleh Trimegah Securities

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa oleh Trimegah Securities.

Riset Mitra Adi Perkasa Oleh Trimegah Securities

Riset Resource Alam Indonesia oleh OSK

Riset Resource Alam Indonesia Oleh OSK.

Riset Resource Alam Indonesia Oleh OSK

Memo Harian Kim Eng Securities

Memo Harian Kim Eng Sekuritas.

Memo Harian Kim Eng Sekuritas

Rekomendasi Beberapa Sekuritas, 25 Maret 2011

 Berikut rekomendasi dari tiga sekuritas ternama untuk perdagangan Jumat, 25 Maret 2011.

 

1. E-Trading Securities

Pada perdagangan Kamis (24/3), IHSG ditutup menguat 55,41 poin (1,55%) ke level 3.611,64. Penguatan ini dipicu dirilisnya sejumlah laporan keuangan emiten yang mencatat kinerja di atas konsensus dan penguatan indeks regional. IHSG masih berpotensi untuk melanjutkan penguatannya, namun investor perlu mewaspadai aksi profit taking. Soalnya, candlestick IHSG sudah menyentuh garis upper bolinger band. Pada perdagangan Jumat (25/3), indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak di kisaran 3.556–3.651. Pantau BMRI, PTBA, dan JSMR.

2. Erdhika Sekuritas

IHSG ditutup menguat 55,41 (1,56%) ke level 3611,64 kemarin. Seluruh sektor menguat kecuali sektor perdagangan yang melemah 0,47%. Asing membukukan net buying Rp 850 miliar. Hari ini, indeks diperkirakan akan bergerak pada kisaran 3.571-3.632 dengan saham rekomendasi JSMR dan ADRO.

3. Sinarmas Sekuritas  

Pada perdagangan Jumat (25/3), secara teknikal indeks akan bergerak menguat pada kisaran 3.580-3.642. Perusahaan-perusahaan manufaktur Jepang yang mulai beroperasi serta  ekonomi Jepang yang mulai aktif kembali menjadi sentimen positif indeks saham domestik. Apalagi, kondisi makroekonomi Jepang belakangan ini terus membaik. Saham-saham yang perlu diperhatikan ASRI, BMRI, JSMR, BBNI.

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 25 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi HD Capital untuk perdagangan Jumat, 25 Maret 2011.

BUY: (INDF, BMRI, BBCA, ANTM)

• Pasca penutupan untuk dua hari berturut-turut diatas moving average 50-hari (3.530) IHSG mulai mengalami perubahan dari non trending ke minor uptrending dengan sektor consumer dan perbankan menjadi leader dengan opsi ke sektor mining seperti ANTM sebagai variasi dalam portofolio.

• IHSG close (24-03) 3.536(+18.364/+0.49%) (Val.Rp.2.4T)

• Support: 3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

 

Stock picks:

1.     Indofood (INDF): (BUY) (target: Rp 5.450) (close 24/03 Rp 5.200)

• Secara technical pasca pencetekan high di Rp 5.200 tren berubah dari sideways ke minor uptrending dengan zona resistance di Rp 5.350-5.500.

• Kenaikan harga komoditas terutama CPO merupakan anugerah untuk pendapatan divisi agri business perseroan.

• Pembayaran utang pasca spin off ICBP mie instan mengurangi utang sehingga laba naik dari 4-7% dari kontribusi pengurangan beban bunga utang

• Entry (1) Rp 5.150, Entry (2) Rp 4.950, Cut loss point: Rp 4.850

 

2.   Bank Mandiri (BMRI) (BUY): (Target: Rp 6.300) (Close 24/03 Rp 6.150)

• Secara technical mulai terlihat ada breakout dari trading range yang terbentuk selama lebih dari seminggu Rp 5.950-6.150 ke breakout point di Rp 6.350 dalam proses perubahan tren dari sideways ke minor uptrending.

• Entry (1) Rp 6.050, Entry (2) Rp 5.950, Cut loss point: Rp 5.800

 

3.   Bank BCA (BBCA) (BUY): (Target: Rp 7.100) (Close 24/03 Rp 6.150)

• Hasil kinerja fundamentalnya (net profit margin tertinggi 28%) membuktikan bahwa bank ini pantas memiliki valuasi PER yang tinggi (premium) di sektornya.

• Secara technical mulai terlihat ada minor channel uptrend dengan misi mencoba membentuk new high di atas Rp 7.000.

• Entry: (1) Rp 6.800, Entry (2) Rp 6.600, Cut loss point: Rp 6.500

 

4. Aneka Tambang (ANTM) (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.400) (close 24/03 Rp 2.225)

• Beberapa katalis positif seperti ekspektasi kenaikan produksi ferronickel sebesar 24% dan emas 70% di 2011, harga emas, serta potensi upgrade proyeksi laba pasca laporan keuangan 2010 keluar mendorong ANTM membentuk minor uptrend

• Entry (1) Rp 2.225, Entry (2) Rp 2.175, Cut loss point: Rp 2.075

 

 

Dibuat oleh: 

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)

Laba Bersih Borneo Lumbung Energy Melonjak 450%

Laba bersih PT Borneo Lumbung Energy & Metal (BORN) pada 2010 melonjak sebesar 449,63% dari rugi Rp 99,77 miliar menjadi mencetak laba bersih Rp 348,85 miliar. Kenaikan laba bersih ini mendorong pertumbuhan laba bersih per saham dari minus Rp 80 menjadi Rp 61.

Laba bersih diperoleh setelah BORN berhasil melipatgandakan pendapatan usahanya sebesar 1.272,26% dari Rp 200,53 miliar tahun 2009 menjadi Rp 2,75 triliun. Akibatnya, laba kotor perseroan berhasil tumuh 1.526,24% menjadi Rp 1,5 triliun. Laba operasional juga tumbuh 1.957,38% menjadi Rp 1,01 triliun.

Marjin laba kotor perseroan juga terlihat kian membesar, yakni dari 46,05% pada 2009 menjadi 54,57$. Hal yang sama juga terlihat pada marjin laba operasi dari 24,6% menjadi 36,88% dan marjin laba bersih dari semula minus 49,76% menjadi 12,68%.

Dari sisi arus kas, saat ini perseroan mengantungi kas sebesar Rp 2,08 triliun dari tahun 2009 hanya Rp 8,17 miliar.

Kinerja Borneo Lumbung Energi (dalam juta rupiah)
	2010	2009
Pendapatan usaha	2.751.793	200.529	1272,267
Laba kotor	1.501.684	92.341	1526,238
Laba operasi	1.014.660	49.318	1957,383
Laba bersih	348.847	-99.777	449.627
Laba per saham	61	-80

Riset Bank BJB oleh OSK

Riset Bank BJB oleh OSK.

Riset Bank BJB Oleh OSK DMG

Riset BW Plantation oleh Kresna Securities

Riset BW Plantation oleh Kresna Securities.

Riset BW Plantation Oleh Kresna Securities

Riset Aneka Tambang oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Aneka Tambang oleh AAA Sekuritas.

Riset Aneka Tambang Oleh AAA Sekuritas

Riset Indofood CBP oleh Kresna Securities

Riset Indofood CBP oleh Kresna Securities.

Riset Indofood CBP Oleh Kresna Securities

Riset Indofood CBP oleh NISP Sekuritas

Riset Indofood CBP oleh NISP Sekuritas.

Riset Indofood CBP Oleh NISP Sekuritas

Rekomendasi HD Capital, 24 Maret 2011

Berikut rekomendasi dari HD Capital untuk perdagangan Kamis, 24 Maret 2011.

BUY: (BUMI, KRAS, PTBA, ADRO)

• Penutupan IHSG di atas level resistance kunci di 3.530 atau MA-50 hari merupakan konfirmasi technical bahwa rally akan berlanjut ke 3.600.

• IHSG close (23-03) 3.556(+38.510/+1.09%) (Val.Rp.2.4T)

• Support: 3.475-3.450, Resistance: 3,650-3,750

Stock picks:

1.     Bumi Resources (BUMI): (BUY) (target: Rp 3.250) (close 23/03 Rp 3.100)

• Proses re-financing utang sebesar $300 juta convertible bond dan $600 juta pinjaman dari CIC dan ekspansi yang berjalan on track, serta sinergi alliasi Bumi & Vallar yang dapat memperbaiki corporate governance, merupakan katalis untuk akumulasi.

• Entry (1) Rp 3.050, Entry (2) Rp 2.950, Cut loss point: Rp 2.850

2.   Krakatau Steel (KRAS) (BUY): (Target: Rp 1.250) (Close 23/03 Rp 1.150)

• Kenaikan harga batubara otomatis serta terganggunya pasokan dari Jepang akan membuat produsen baja menaikkan harga jual  seiring dengan terkereknya permintaan sehingga menjadi sentimen positif untuk KRAS untuk bergerak kembali di atas level psikologis Rp 1.200

• Entry (1) Rp 1.140, Entry (2) Rp 1.120, Cut loss point: Rp 1.080

3.   Bukit Asam (PTBA) (BUY): (Target: Rp 21.850) (Close 23/03 Rp 20.750)

• Kenaikan proyeksi laba di 2011 sebesar 14% didorong oleh terkereknya harga batubara spot dari $105 ke $130 serta ASP (average selling price) batubara dari $75 ke $85 dapat offset kecewanya investor atas lambatnya pembangunan proyek rel kereta api yang belum rampung.

• Entry: (1) Rp 20.600, Entry (2) Rp 20.200, Cut loss point: Rp 19.800

4. Adaro Energy (ADRO) (BUY) (Target: Rp 2.375) (close 23/03 Rp 2.250)

• Downgrade fundamental sudah sepenuhnya terdiskon dalam penurunan harga yang cukup tajam ke daerah jenuh jual sehingga rekomen akumulasi untuk proses upward retracement.

• Entry (1) Rp 2.200, Entry (2) Rp 2.150, Cut loss point: Rp 2.075

Dibuat oleh:

Yuganur Wijanarko

Senior Research HD Capital (Yuganur@hdx.co.id)